Open predictions

David predicts Apple will announce minor updates to iPads and MacBooks on March 4.

Nilay predicts that Apple's March 4 announcements will include price increases of approximately $100 across product lines.

David Pierce predicts Apple will announce new iPads, iPhones, and possibly MacBooks by Tuesday (the day the podcast airs).

Dave Morin predicts the OpenClaw Foundation will launch a donation page within the next couple of weeks.

Peter Zeihan predicts the Gulf states will exhaust their air defense interceptors within days.

Rail travel will reach 540 million trips and aviation 95 million trips during the 2026 spring festival period.

Scott predicts that within 30 days, multiple CEOs will publicly refuse to cooperate with the Trump administration, following Dario Amodei's example at Anthropic.

Peter Zeihan predicts that a one-month duration of the Iran conflict will break the economic models of most East Asian countries.

Trump predicts the military campaign against Iran could continue for four or five weeks from early March 2026.

Jessica Tarleff predicts that the Iran conflict must be resolved before Trump's scheduled trip to Beijing next month (April 2026).

Friedberg predicts major US-China meetings will occur in April

Jessica Tarleff reports that Iran believes it can sustain conflict for 60-90 days.

Nilay Patel reports Apple's revamped Siri powered by Gemini will launch in May 2026 instead of March 2026.

Friedberg predicts Google will release a Cowork-like product integrated with G Suite within 90 days and sweep the market

Suresh predicts that a bank will announce an open banking API compatible with any AI within three months (by June 2026).

Jason Calacanis indicates that new M5 Mac Studio chips are expected in June 2026.

Elon Musk predicts Grok will exceed all coding models by June 2026

Maine's Democratic Party plans to hold a nominating convention to select a new Senate nominee.

An unnamed official predicts there is a chance of reaching a deal with Iran today or tomorrow to open the Strait of Hormuz.

David Pearce predicts the new Pixel phones will feature slimmer bezels, a thinner foldable phone, and possibly a new camera bar design.

David Pearce predicts the new Pixel phones will be substantially more expensive than previous models.

Google will announce new Pixel phones, Pixel Pros, possibly a Pixel Fold and Pixel Watch at an August 12 event in New York City.

Eric McDaniel predicts the combined stock trading ban and voter ID bill will fail in the Senate.

Scott Galloway will focus the Resist and Unsubscribe campaign on ChatGPT for the next few weeks.

Alice Han predicts Unitree's IPO will help Chinese equities broadly during the week of the IPO.

John Ismay predicts the USS George Washington will take a week or more to reach the USS Lincoln's location

Meta's consumer agent rollout could begin as a preview within the week of August 25, 2026.

Jason Calacanis predicts Founder University will open applications on September 1 for a January cohort.

Scott Galloway predicts stronger oil flows, better technology, and a potential trading partner will emerge, with oil prices lower in six months.

The host will unlock additional AI Summer Adventure projects weekly through early September 2026.

Prakash indicates the show will continue next Monday with compacted context.

Host predicts massive supply chain pain will occur within three weeks.

David Pierce will return to the Vergecast after approximately six weeks of parental leave.

Joe Wiesenthal predicts Odd Lots will record a live show at Vermont Theater in Hollywood on September 17th, 2026.

Joe Wiesenthal predicts Odd Lots will record a live show at Vermont Theater in Hollywood on September 17th.

Joe Wiesenthal predicts Odd Lots will record a live show at the Vermont Theater in Hollywood on September 17th, 2026.

Robert Friedland states that President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit the United States on September 24th.

Meta will begin producing its first custom AI chips in September 2026.

Marco predicts that new Siri will make common operations like app search and reminder creation slower due to increased AI complexity

Kevin Roose and Casey Newton's new independent podcast will launch at least twice weekly and be YouTube-first within a couple of weeks.

DHS will deploy body cameras to all ICE field offices within 60 days (by September 2026)

Matina Stevis-Gridnev predicts that Prime Minister Carney will organize a major investment conference in mid-September in Toronto and will travel to Brazil to cut new trade deals.

Daphne Zohar predicts Heidi Overton's FDA commissioner confirmation hearings will occur after the Senate summer recess.

Vee predicts Apple Watch readiness feature will be exclusive to Series 12 and Ultra 4 models.

Scott Galloway predicts Aura will be well received when it goes public later this month (September 2026).

Mark Gurman predicts Apple AirPods with cameras could launch as early as September 2026.

Max Hodak predicts that Cyens will make first commercial sales of Prima in Europe within weeks of July 2026

Nick Coraciniti predicts the Supreme Court will rule on the postal service executive order after Wednesday afternoon (September 10, 2026).

Host reports that Fable 5.1 is coming shortly and OpenAI's Astra has been delayed until September 2026.

Takeda's polycythemia vera drug (in collaboration with Protagonist) has a third quarter PDUFA date.

Jason reports SpaceX's $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor will close in Q3 2026.

Mark Gurman predicts Apple will implement price hikes on new phones in September 2026.

Vy predicts that breathing emergency detection will only be available in Europe at launch, not the US.

Jean Mack predicts GAIN's IND will be cleared by the FDA within weeks and Phase 2 will begin in Q3 2026

MiniMax will release M3 Pro model as soon as Q3 2026

Dom Preston predicts another major phone company will release a foldable in a wide form factor similar to the Z Fold 8 within a couple of months

Stuart Medina predicts Bio Spain 2026 Talent Day will exceed the 125 job interviews arranged in the previous year

The Relay podcast-a-thon will occur on Friday, October 2, 2026 from noon to midnight in one true time zone.

Rayam Krishnan predicts that Xi Jinping and Trump will meet next month (from the September 2026 episode date).

Carissa Bodner predicts Thrive Cosmetics will launch Lasting Mark Lipstain within one month.

Legal experts predict it is very unlikely the Supreme Court will rule in favor of the Trump administration's executive order on mail voting.

Nick Coraciniti predicts the Supreme Court will rule on the executive order relatively quickly, before or around the time mail ballots are sent out in the coming weeks.

Batwan predicts Pika will optimize H3 Max to run on consumer hardware in the coming weeks.

Legal experts expect the Supreme Court to reject the Trump administration's executive order on mail voting on the merits.

Paul Matisse predicts Biohaven could resolve the partial clinical hold on their KV7 drug within one month.

Aashi Dissanayake predicts Spacium will announce groundbreaking news about in-space refueling standardization within 1-2 months.

David Sanger predicts President Trump will successfully get the Saudi nuclear deal through Congress despite potential disapproval votes.

Nilay states iPhone Duo will ship on October 23, 2026.

Anthropic targets IPO in September or October 2026

OpenAI will IPO in October at a $1.5 trillion valuation.

Meta will launch their Watermelon model in October 2026.

Ethan Malek will publish a new book in October 2026.

Apple will launch a new smart home hub by October 2026.

Anastasios predicts Anthropic will go public before OpenAI, potentially as soon as October 2026.

Kevin Roose's book 'The AGI Chronicles' will be published in early October 2026.

Jason reports that Anthropic plans to seek a $2–3 trillion valuation for an October IPO.

Anthropic will disclose a $30 trillion TAM in their IPO filing.

Casey predicts John will buy an unbinned M5 Max with 18 cores and 40 GPU cores.

Marco predicts John will configure his Mac Studio with either 96GB or 128GB of RAM.

A sailor on the USS Lincoln hopes to return home by Halloween (approximately two months from August 18, 2026)

Anthropic will make financial disclosure public in the next few weeks and IPO in late September or early October 2026.

Greg Suvannovich predicts EyePoint's second phase three trial data will be available in October 2026.

Brian Skorney predicts Novartis will present full DM1 trial dataset at WMS (World Muscle Society) conference in Japan within a few weeks.

Dave Evans predicts that his wife's book 'Unfinished Business' will be published in October.

John predicts the M5 Max will be faster than current Macs he and his family own.

James King predicts possible US-China cooperation on AI security and biotech risks, potentially advanced at Xi-Trump summit on September 24.

Jane Fonda predicts the Jane Fonda Climate PAC will work to help Democrats take back the House in the 2026 midterm elections.

Adam Posen predicts Republicans will pass large stimulus checks before the 2026 midterm elections

Ray Dalio predicts Democrats will likely take the House in the midterm elections.

Jane Fonda predicts the president will attempt to interfere with the midterm elections by eliminating mail-in voting.

Mark Cuban predicts James Tallarico (Collin Allred) has a real chance to win the Texas gubernatorial race against Ken Paxton.

Nate Cohn predicts Democrats are favored to win the House and have a real chance to win the Senate in November 2026.

Shane Goldmacher predicts Democratic nominee James Talarico will significantly outperform Ken Paxton among independent voters in the Texas Senate race.

Michael Barbaro predicts that a Democrat could win the Texas Senate seat in the 2026 midterm elections, a first in his decade of coverage.

Hillary Clinton predicts Democrats have a 50-50 chance to take back the Senate, with Michigan and Maine as deciding factors.

Hillary Clinton predicts Democrats will take back the House and have slightly better than 50-50 odds to take back the Senate.

Jacob Soboroff predicts extraordinary voter turnout in the midterm elections, exceeding current expectations.

Alex Weeden predicts SubQ will have complete general access to their model within a couple of months.

Scott predicts Apple will sell more iPhone Duo foldable phones within 60 days than all foldable phones sold in the prior 7 years combined.

Scott predicts the iPhone Duo will be a commercial hit and outsell all prior foldable phones in 60 days.

Jim Vandehei predicts Axios will announce a major expansion into local news within the next couple of months.

Gorka predicts that over the next 1-2 months, Pika will focus on adding controllability features to video models for professional studio use.

Cecilia Kong predicts Meta will roll out the settlement-mandated product restrictions (two-hour limits, notification restrictions, removal of like counts, beauty filter bans) within months of the August 27, 2026 settlement.

Scott Galloway predicts Democrats will take back Congress and have a nonzero probability of taking the Senate based on prediction markets.

Ezra Klein predicts Ken Paxton is beatable in a Texas Senate race while Cornyn would not be.

Calacanis predicts Republicans will lose the 2026 midterm elections

Stein Pella predicts Lassie will achieve near-complete self-serve onboarding within months.

Jessica Tarleff predicts Susan Collins is more vulnerable in her 2026 Senate race than in previous elections.

Jessica Tarleff predicts Sherrod Brown can win back the Ohio Senate seat in 2026.

Apple's iPhone Ultra will be priced higher than Samsung's Z Fold 8 Ultra ($2,100).

Ben Giles predicts that the November 2026 midterm elections will test whether Trump and Turning Point can successfully elect their preferred candidates in Arizona statewide races.

Mara Liasson questions whether Abdul El Sayed, a left-wing populist, can win the Michigan general election needed for Democrats to gain Senate majority.

Mara Liasson questions whether Troy Jackson can raise sufficient funds and defeat Susan Collins in the Maine Senate race.

Mara Liasson predicts Democrats will have higher voter turnout than Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.

Data center impacts will become an issue in the next electoral cycle.

Governor Hochul predicts an offshore wind facility will launch in fall 2026.

James King predicts Xi Jinping will visit the US on September 24, 2026, and Trump will attend the Apex Summit in Shenzhen in November 2026.

Apple will release a foldable phone in the same form factor as the Samsung Z Fold 8 within a few months.

Jason DeParle predicts that starting in November, the federal government will cut in half the administrative funding states receive to run SNAP.

Jim Vandehei predicts Democrats will win the House and have a reasonable chance of winning the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections.