Open predictions
Still awaiting a verdict — the ones with a target date come first.
Nilay Patel predicts a Decoder episode will unpack Jamie Siminoff's claims about Ring cameras and crime reduction.
Nilay Patel predicts The Verge will publish a story explaining the equal signs redactions in the Epstein files by the following week.
Nilay predicts that Apple's March 4 announcements will include price increases of approximately $100 across product lines.
David predicts Apple will announce minor updates to iPads and MacBooks on March 4.
David reports that Apple is holding events in New York, Shanghai, and London on March 4.
David Pierce predicts Apple will announce new iPads, iPhones, and possibly MacBooks by Tuesday (the day the podcast airs).
David Pierce predicts the Vergecast will do a live podcast immediately after Apple's Wednesday event.
Kara Swisher predicts that tickets for the Minneapolis live show will be available on Friday at resistandunsubscribe.com.
David Pierce predicts Apple will hold an event on Wednesday where attendees will be able to handle newly announced products.
Dave Morin predicts the OpenClaw Foundation will launch a donation page within the next couple of weeks.
Jason will host an OpenClaw demo festival on March 16-17, 2026 in San Francisco with 30 demos.
Peter Zeihan predicts the Gulf states will exhaust their air defense interceptors within days.
Ryan Peterson predicts the Court of International Trade will issue a ruling on tariff refunds within 30 days of February 20, 2026
Graham Allison predicts Trump will declare the Iran war over before his China trip on March 29, 2026, though defense officials expect it to last another month or longer.
China will see 9.5 billion passenger trips during the 40-day spring festival period in 2026, exceeding 2025's 9.02 billion.
LEGO will release smart brick toys in Star Wars sets in March 2026.
Rail travel will reach 540 million trips and aviation 95 million trips during the 2026 spring festival period.
Alice Han predicts the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for March 31 to April 2, 2026 will likely be delayed due to Middle East escalation.
Scott predicts that within 30 days, multiple CEOs will publicly refuse to cooperate with the Trump administration, following Dario Amodei's example at Anthropic.
Henry Blodgett's novel 'The Upgrade' will be released next month and concerns a tech billionaire using AI for world domination.
Peter Zeihan predicts that a one-month duration of the Iran conflict will break the economic models of most East Asian countries.
Trump predicts the military campaign against Iran could continue for four or five weeks from early March 2026.
Friedberg predicts major US-China meetings will occur in April
Alexis Maxwell predicts urea-to-corn price ratio will set a new record high, destroying urea demand.
Jessica Tarleff predicts that the Iran conflict must be resolved before Trump's scheduled trip to Beijing next month (April 2026).
Jessica Tarleff reports that Iran believes it can sustain conflict for 60-90 days.
Andy Brown predicts China will announce soybean and Boeing purchases during Trump's visit.
Ferrari's first all-electric vehicle will launch in May 2026
Nilay Patel reports Apple's revamped Siri powered by Gemini will launch in May 2026 instead of March 2026.
Friedberg predicts Google will release a Cowork-like product integrated with G Suite within 90 days and sweep the market
Suresh predicts that a bank will announce an open banking API compatible with any AI within three months (by June 2026).
Elon Musk predicts Grok will exceed all coding models by June 2026
Jason Calacanis indicates that new M5 Mac Studio chips are expected in June 2026.
Grok 4.5 will be released today (2026-07-08 or 2026-07-09)
SpaceX/Cursor model release could come as soon as Wednesday (2026-07-09)
OpenAI will release GPT 5.6 family models (Sol, Terra, Luna) on Thursday (2026-07-10)
A Connecticut citizen assembly with 110 residents will begin tomorrow (July 11, 2026) to address the state's municipal funding problem.
SK Hynix will list on Nasdaq this week, raising $28 billion in one of the largest IPOs ever.
Matt Bellany reports that state antitrust lawsuits against Paramount's Warner Bros acquisition will be filed next week.
Ryan Peterson predicts Trump will use Section 301 tariff mechanisms between February 2026 and July 20, 2026
Ryan Peterson predicts that on July 20, 2026, the Section 122 tariffs will expire and be immediately re-extended for another 120 days
David Pearce predicts Samsung will announce or release a new foldable phone on July 22, 2026.
Maine's Democratic Party plans to hold a nominating convention to select a new Senate nominee.
Steve Inskeep predicts that Haitians and Syrians will lose work ability any day now due to Trump administration revoking temporary protected status.
Leo predicts GPT-6 will launch within about a month, possibly in late July 2026.
David Pearce predicts the new Pixel phones will feature slimmer bezels, a thinner foldable phone, and possibly a new camera bar design.
David Pearce predicts the new Pixel phones will be substantially more expensive than previous models.
Google will announce new Pixel phones, Pixel Pros, possibly a Pixel Fold and Pixel Watch at an August 12 event in New York City.
Scott Galloway will focus the Resist and Unsubscribe campaign on ChatGPT for the next few weeks.
Scott predicts S&P 500 will decline 20-40% from peak and Bitcoin will fall to $30,000 by August 2026.
Scott Galloway predicts stronger oil flows, better technology, and a potential trading partner will emerge, with oil prices lower in six months.
Ben Rhodes predicts the U.S. will resume bombing Iran within months if Trump stops the current campaign, creating a cycle of recurring military strikes.
Scott Galloway predicts oil prices will be lower in six months than current levels (as of March 2026).
Meta will begin producing its first custom AI chips in September 2026.
Jason reports SpaceX's $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor will close in Q3 2026.
MiniMax will release M3 Pro model as soon as Q3 2026
OpenAI will IPO in October at a $1.5 trillion valuation.
Jane Fonda predicts the Jane Fonda Climate PAC will work to help Democrats take back the House in the 2026 midterm elections.
Adam Posen predicts Republicans will pass large stimulus checks before the 2026 midterm elections
Jane Fonda predicts the president will attempt to interfere with the midterm elections by eliminating mail-in voting.
Ray Dalio predicts Democrats will likely take the House in the midterm elections.
Scott Galloway predicts Democrats will take back Congress and have a nonzero probability of taking the Senate based on prediction markets.
Jessica Tarleff predicts Sherrod Brown can win back the Ohio Senate seat in 2026.
Jessica Tarleff predicts Susan Collins is more vulnerable in her 2026 Senate race than in previous elections.
Ezra Klein predicts Ken Paxton is beatable in a Texas Senate race while Cornyn would not be.
Calacanis predicts Republicans will lose the 2026 midterm elections
James King predicts 2026 will see major litigation by Hollywood against Chinese AI video apps, with lawsuits falling behind technological advances.
Peter Zeihan predicts a global energy-induced recession will occur even if the Iran-Israel conflict stops immediately, due to oil supply disruptions.
McKibben states Vatican City will become the first fully solar-powered nation on Earth.
Andy Parker predicts StepPharma will move lymphoma trial into safety expansion cohort and make phase two decisions by end of 2026.
Jason predicts Replit v4 will autonomously build 3-4 features overnight while users sleep
Alexis Maxwell predicts US corn yield will be 182 bushels per acre in 2026, down from 186 in 2025.
27 states and DC will continue pursuing the Live Nation Ticketmaster antitrust case beyond the DOJ settlement.
Jared Sleeper predicts that SaaS companies will conduct significant layoffs in the near term as they respond to AI-driven cost reduction opportunities.
Polymarket prediction: OpenAI will not IPO by December 31, 2026 (currently highest probability bet).
David predicts Google will successfully ship agentic AI features for food delivery and ride-hailing on Android phones.
Ryan Peterson predicts tariff refunds will occur and be distributed within 2026
Kai Risdahl predicts that affordability and consumer prices will get worse due to tariff pass-through effects.
Ray Wong predicts Apple will experience meaningful market impact from memory chip costs in the second half of 2026 rather than earlier quarters.
Nilay Patel reports that YouTube will be available on Apple Vision Pro.
Nilay Patel predicts Android XR will launch soon.
Adam Posen predicts Congress will restore Obamacare insurance subsidies for lower-middle class
Jason predicts Starlink will release its V3 satellite in the second half of 2026.
Casey Newton predicts that by end of 2026, age 16 will become the global norm for minimum age to access social media accounts.
Tim Roughgarden predicts Solana's Alpenglow consensus protocol will be rolled out in 2026.
SEC Chair Atkins will propose a rule on quarterly reporting cadence in 2026.
SEC Chair Atkins will address and modify the accredited investor definition in 2026.
Scott predicts major European banks (Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas) will announce significant write-downs on emerging market debt, triggering credit spread widening.
CFTC Chair Seelig expects crypto legislation to pass Congress in 2026.
SEC and CFTC will finalize a memorandum of understanding on coordination and information sharing in 2026.
Both Anthropic and OpenAI will attempt to go public within the next nine months (by end of 2026).
Logan Allen reports Anthropic is on track to generate ~$20 billion in annual revenue, more than doubling from late 2025.
Alice Han predicts SpaceX will IPO in 2026 and will be the largest IPO of the year.
Public SaaS companies will show declining performance throughout 2026.
Honor's robot phone (Magic V6 with gimbal) will launch in the second half of 2026.
David George predicts that in 2026, OpenAI and Anthropic combined will add more revenue than all traditional software vendors (SAP, Intuit, Salesforce, Workday, ServiceNow) combined.
Adam Posen predicts headline CPI will reach 4% by the end of 2026
Andy Parker predicts StepPharma will raise additional funding within next six months (by January 2027).
An unnamed AI company executive predicts that within one year (from February 2026), software engineering will be fully automated.
Ezra Klein predicts Mike Johnson will not be Speaker of the House at the next State of the Union.
Matt Bellany predicts Madonna's new album will receive a Grammy Album of the Year nomination, her first since 1998.
Peter Zeihan predicts the Russian shadow fleet will cease operations within one year unless policy changes.
Scott Galloway predicts that the probability of the Iranian regime falling by March (2027) is declining daily based on current vibe shifts.
Sacks predicts US GDP growth will be 6% in 2026
Matt Bellany predicts Netflix will launch a free tier within one year to compete with YouTube and serve as a funnel for paid tiers.
Andy Parker predicts phase one readout from solid tumor safety expansion cohorts within 12-15 months (by October 2027).
Polymarket prediction: OpenAI will not IPO by December 31, 2027 (currently 37-43% probability).
Daniel cites Helix Bank's forecast that Kazakhstan's tenge will weaken to 600+ per dollar by end of 2027.
McKibben predicts Earth will see temperatures in 2026 and 2027 higher than any humans have ever experienced.
Gregor Van predicts Anthropic will file for IPO soon (as of early June 2026) and it will be one of the largest IPOs in history.
Biogen will advance anti-tau ASO to phase three despite missing primary endpoint in phase two Alzheimer's trial.
Scott Galloway predicts that private credit companies have been oversold and will recover in value relative to their growth fundamentals.
Ray Wong predicts Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will continue increasing CapEx in 2027 to expand DRAM and HBM capacity.
Ray Wong predicts significant new DRAM wafer capacity will come online in 2026 and throughout 2027.
James King predicts China's property market will not bottom out until 2027 at the earliest.
Ezra Klein predicts Democrats will launch extensive investigations if they win the House and/or Senate.
Neil predicts that governments around the world will soon declare Samsung's AI photo editing features illegal.
Ipsen-acquired Cartos Therapeutics will report phase three myelofibrosis trial data in 2027.
Meta will deploy 7 GW of compute capacity in 2026 and 14 GW in 2027.
Rory predicts Workday's growth rate will not dramatically improve despite Anil's return as CEO