Open predictions

New Captain America and Fantastic Four movies will be released next year (2025) as setup for a multi-part Avengers team-up.

David predicts Apple will announce minor updates to iPads and MacBooks on March 4.

Nilay predicts that Apple's March 4 announcements will include price increases of approximately $100 across product lines.

David Pierce predicts Apple will announce new iPads, iPhones, and possibly MacBooks by Tuesday (the day the podcast airs).

Dave Morin predicts the OpenClaw Foundation will launch a donation page within the next couple of weeks.

Peter Zeihan predicts the Gulf states will exhaust their air defense interceptors within days.

Rail travel will reach 540 million trips and aviation 95 million trips during the 2026 spring festival period.

Scott predicts that within 30 days, multiple CEOs will publicly refuse to cooperate with the Trump administration, following Dario Amodei's example at Anthropic.

Peter Zeihan predicts that a one-month duration of the Iran conflict will break the economic models of most East Asian countries.

Trump predicts the military campaign against Iran could continue for four or five weeks from early March 2026.

Jessica Tarleff predicts that the Iran conflict must be resolved before Trump's scheduled trip to Beijing next month (April 2026).

Friedberg predicts major US-China meetings will occur in April

Jessica Tarleff reports that Iran believes it can sustain conflict for 60-90 days.

Nilay Patel reports Apple's revamped Siri powered by Gemini will launch in May 2026 instead of March 2026.

Friedberg predicts Google will release a Cowork-like product integrated with G Suite within 90 days and sweep the market

Suresh predicts that a bank will announce an open banking API compatible with any AI within three months (by June 2026).

Jason Calacanis indicates that new M5 Mac Studio chips are expected in June 2026.

Elon Musk predicts Grok will exceed all coding models by June 2026

Trump predicts the US military will implement a blockade against Iran later today.

Maine's Democratic Party plans to hold a nominating convention to select a new Senate nominee.

David Sacks reports Sam Altman will visit Washington within one week to discuss GPT-6.0.

Eric McDaniel predicts the congressional stock trading ban and voter ID bill could narrowly pass the House if Republicans stay united on a procedural vote.

Jack Raines' book 'Young Money' will be published within one week of the episode air date (by approximately 2026-08-06).

An unnamed official predicts there is a chance of reaching a deal with Iran today or tomorrow to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Leo predicts GPT-6 will launch within about a month, possibly in late July 2026.

Alibaba will release the full weights of Qwen 3.8 Max model next week.

David Pearce predicts the new Pixel phones will feature slimmer bezels, a thinner foldable phone, and possibly a new camera bar design.

David Pearce predicts the new Pixel phones will be substantially more expensive than previous models.

Google will announce new Pixel phones, Pixel Pros, possibly a Pixel Fold and Pixel Watch at an August 12 event in New York City.

Avishai states Wix will launch a new product next month (August 2026).

Eric McDaniel predicts the combined stock trading ban and voter ID bill will fail in the Senate.

OpenAI's Astro model will launch next week (targeting early August 2026).

Marco predicts premium audio effects features for Overcast will ship to the App Store within the next couple of weeks.

Scott Galloway will focus the Resist and Unsubscribe campaign on ChatGPT for the next few weeks.

Trump will impose 50% tariffs on Canadian goods starting in approximately one month from July 24, 2026.

Harry Stebbings predicts OpenRouter will make a decision on staying private or selling to Stripe within a couple of weeks.

Scott predicts S&P 500 will decline 20-40% from peak and Bitcoin will fall to $30,000 by August 2026.

Zoox will begin charging for driverless taxi rides in Las Vegas starting next month (August 2026).

Jason Calacanis predicts Founder University will open applications on September 1 for a January cohort.

Ruby predicts that r2s will publish an AI sentiment index analyzing 5,000 videos within the next month.

Ben Rhodes predicts the U.S. will resume bombing Iran within months if Trump stops the current campaign, creating a cycle of recurring military strikes.

Scott Galloway predicts oil prices will be lower in six months than current levels (as of March 2026).

Scott Galloway predicts stronger oil flows, better technology, and a potential trading partner will emerge, with oil prices lower in six months.

The host will unlock additional AI Summer Adventure projects weekly through early September 2026.

Elon Musk predicts Grok 4.7 will be ready in 3-4 weeks and will be significantly better than Grok 4.6

David Pierce will return to the Vergecast after approximately six weeks of parental leave.

Sergio Martinez Beltran reports that DHS is vowing to deploy body cameras for all ICE agents within the next sixty days.

Matt Klein's company will launch brepacitinib within the next two to two and a half months

Meta will begin producing its first custom AI chips in September 2026.

MiniMax will release M3 Pro model as soon as Q3 2026

Marco predicts that new Siri will make common operations like app search and reminder creation slower due to increased AI complexity

Jason reports SpaceX's $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor will close in Q3 2026.

Kevin Roose and Casey Newton's new independent podcast will launch at least twice weekly and be YouTube-first within a couple of weeks.

Takeda's polycythemia vera drug (in collaboration with Protagonist) has a third quarter PDUFA date.

DHS will deploy body cameras to all ICE field offices within 60 days (by September 2026)

Mark Gurman predicts Apple will implement price hikes on new phones in September 2026.

Jean Mack predicts GAIN's IND will be cleared by the FDA within weeks and Phase 2 will begin in Q3 2026

Vy predicts that breathing emergency detection will only be available in Europe at launch, not the US.

Dom Preston predicts another major phone company will release a foldable in a wide form factor similar to the Z Fold 8 within a couple of months

David Sanger predicts President Trump will successfully get the Saudi nuclear deal through Congress despite potential disapproval votes.

Anthropic targets IPO in September or October 2026

OpenAI will IPO in October at a $1.5 trillion valuation.

Ethan Malek will publish a new book in October 2026.

Apple will launch a new smart home hub by October 2026.

Anastasios predicts Anthropic will go public before OpenAI, potentially as soon as October 2026.

Kevin Roose's book 'The AGI Chronicles' will be published in early October 2026.

Jason reports that Anthropic plans to seek a $2–3 trillion valuation for an October IPO.

Jane Fonda predicts the Jane Fonda Climate PAC will work to help Democrats take back the House in the 2026 midterm elections.

Adam Posen predicts Republicans will pass large stimulus checks before the 2026 midterm elections

Ray Dalio predicts Democrats will likely take the House in the midterm elections.

Jane Fonda predicts the president will attempt to interfere with the midterm elections by eliminating mail-in voting.

Hillary Clinton predicts Democrats have a 50-50 chance to take back the Senate, with Michigan and Maine as deciding factors.

Hillary Clinton predicts Democrats will take back the House and have slightly better than 50-50 odds to take back the Senate.

Scott Galloway predicts Democrats will take back Congress and have a nonzero probability of taking the Senate based on prediction markets.

Ezra Klein predicts Ken Paxton is beatable in a Texas Senate race while Cornyn would not be.

Calacanis predicts Republicans will lose the 2026 midterm elections

Stein Pella predicts Lassie will achieve near-complete self-serve onboarding within months.

Jessica Tarleff predicts Susan Collins is more vulnerable in her 2026 Senate race than in previous elections.

Jessica Tarleff predicts Sherrod Brown can win back the Ohio Senate seat in 2026.

Apple's iPhone Ultra will be priced higher than Samsung's Z Fold 8 Ultra ($2,100).

Ben Giles predicts that the November 2026 midterm elections will test whether Trump and Turning Point can successfully elect their preferred candidates in Arizona statewide races.

Mara Liasson questions whether Abdul El Sayed, a left-wing populist, can win the Michigan general election needed for Democrats to gain Senate majority.

Mara Liasson questions whether Troy Jackson can raise sufficient funds and defeat Susan Collins in the Maine Senate race.

Mara Liasson predicts Democrats will have higher voter turnout than Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.

Data center impacts will become an issue in the next electoral cycle.

Governor Hochul predicts an offshore wind facility will launch in fall 2026.

James King predicts Xi Jinping will visit the US on September 24, 2026, and Trump will attend the Apex Summit in Shenzhen in November 2026.

Apple will release a foldable phone in the same form factor as the Samsung Z Fold 8 within a few months.

Jason DeParle predicts that starting in November, the federal government will cut in half the administrative funding states receive to run SNAP.

Yaron Werber predicts ITC will issue initial decision on BioMarin vs. Ascendis patent case by August 21, 2026, with final decision by December 21, 2026.

McKibben states Vatican City will become the first fully solar-powered nation on Earth.

Andy Parker predicts StepPharma will move lymphoma trial into safety expansion cohort and make phase two decisions by end of 2026.

Alexis Maxwell predicts US corn yield will be 182 bushels per acre in 2026, down from 186 in 2025.

27 states and DC will continue pursuing the Live Nation Ticketmaster antitrust case beyond the DOJ settlement.

Polymarket prediction: OpenAI will not IPO by December 31, 2026 (currently highest probability bet).

David predicts Google will successfully ship agentic AI features for food delivery and ride-hailing on Android phones.

Ryan Peterson predicts tariff refunds will occur and be distributed within 2026

Kai Risdahl predicts that affordability and consumer prices will get worse due to tariff pass-through effects.

Ray Wong predicts Apple will experience meaningful market impact from memory chip costs in the second half of 2026 rather than earlier quarters.

Nilay Patel reports that YouTube will be available on Apple Vision Pro.

Nilay Patel predicts Android XR will launch soon.

Adam Posen predicts Congress will restore Obamacare insurance subsidies for lower-middle class

Jason predicts Starlink will release its V3 satellite in the second half of 2026.

Casey Newton predicts that by end of 2026, age 16 will become the global norm for minimum age to access social media accounts.

Tim Roughgarden predicts Solana's Alpenglow consensus protocol will be rolled out in 2026.

SEC Chair Atkins will propose a rule on quarterly reporting cadence in 2026.

SEC Chair Atkins will address and modify the accredited investor definition in 2026.

Scott predicts major European banks (Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas) will announce significant write-downs on emerging market debt, triggering credit spread widening.

CFTC Chair Seelig expects crypto legislation to pass Congress in 2026.

SEC and CFTC will finalize a memorandum of understanding on coordination and information sharing in 2026.

Both Anthropic and OpenAI will attempt to go public within the next nine months (by end of 2026).

Alice Han predicts SpaceX will IPO in 2026 and will be the largest IPO of the year.

David George predicts that in 2026, OpenAI and Anthropic combined will add more revenue than all traditional software vendors (SAP, Intuit, Salesforce, Workday, ServiceNow) combined.

Adam Posen predicts headline CPI will reach 4% by the end of 2026

Peter Zeihan predicts a global energy-induced recession will occur even if the Iran-Israel conflict stops immediately, due to oil supply disruptions.

Honor's robot phone (Magic V6 with gimbal) will launch in the second half of 2026.

Public SaaS companies will show declining performance throughout 2026.

Logan Allen reports Anthropic is on track to generate ~$20 billion in annual revenue, more than doubling from late 2025.

James King predicts 2026 will see major litigation by Hollywood against Chinese AI video apps, with lawsuits falling behind technological advances.

Jared Sleeper predicts that SaaS companies will conduct significant layoffs in the near term as they respond to AI-driven cost reduction opportunities.