Scott predicts S&P 500 will decline 20-40% from peak and Bitcoin will fall to $30,000 by August 2026.
“by August, the narrative shifts shifts from transitory war shock to holy shit. We may have broken the global financial system. The S and P is off 20 to 40% from its peak. Bitcoin goes to like 30,000.”
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Our resolution criterion
disputableS&P 500 index declines 20-40% from its 2026 peak; Bitcoin price reaches $30,000 or below by August 31, 2026
Resolution
Marked incorrect on Sep 1, 2026.
Downgraded confidence after review: this single Aug 26 snapshot alone doesn't rule out an earlier 20-40% drawdown-and-recovery, and doesn't cover Bitcoin. A follow-up search corroborates: Bitcoin traded in the $76,000-$81,000 range through late August 2026 (Fortune's daily price series), nowhere near $30,000, and no source describes any 2026 S&P 500 decline approaching 20% (one December-2025 prediction piece, one April 2026 snapshot showing only -4% YTD) -- inconsistent with the claim's magnitud
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