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The Prediction Ledger

What podcast hosts and guests actually predicted — captured verbatim from the transcript, and scored when it resolves. No cherry-picking, no paraphrase.

620
Predictions tracked
31
Resolved
588
Still open
10
Scored people

Recently settled

Latest predictions

OpenAI & Tech· not scored

ByteDance aims to develop a world-leading AI model with 10 trillion parameters

Reported on This Week in Startupsby Feb 8, 2027
OpenMarkets & Economy· not scored

John predicts the DRAM memory shortage will persist through 2026 and likely into 2027.

On Accidental Tech Podcastby Dec 31, 2027
OpenPolitics & Policy· not scored

Hillary Clinton predicts Democrats will take back the House and have slightly better than 50-50 odds to take back the Senate.

On Pivotby Nov 4, 2026
OpenBusiness & Startups· not scored

William Green will launch a Richer, Wiser, Happier masterclass for 22 people later in 2026.

On We Study Billionairesby Dec 31, 2026
OpenBusiness & Startups· not scored

Stein Pella predicts Lassie will achieve near-complete self-serve onboarding within months.

On a16z Podcastby Nov 30, 2026
OpenMarkets & Economy· not scored

Kevin Beaumont reports that all 2027 DRAM memory production from major manufacturers is sold out.

Reported on Accidental Tech Podcastby Dec 31, 2027
OpenBusiness & Startups· not scored

Maize Therapeutics will determine within the next year whether its APOL1 and SLC6A19 programs pass phase two clinical trial scrutiny.

On The Long Run with Luke Timmermanby Aug 12, 2027
OpenBusiness & Startups

Kevin Roose and Casey Newton's new independent podcast will launch at least twice weekly and be YouTube-first within a couple of weeks.

Kevin Roose · Pivotby Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI & Tech

Apple's base model iPhone 18 will not launch in September 2026 but will arrive in early 2027

Reported on The Vergecastby Mar 31, 2027
OpenAI & Tech

OpenAI's AI smart speaker device designed by Jony Ive's studio will launch in 2027.

Kevin Roose · Pivotby Dec 31, 2027
OpenScience

Justin Mankin predicts the current El Niño will be warmer than the 2016 El Niño event.

Reported on Odd Lotsby Mar 31, 2027
OpenPolitics & Policy

Hillary Clinton predicts Democrats have a 50-50 chance to take back the Senate, with Michigan and Maine as deciding factors.

On Pivotby Nov 4, 2026
OpenBusiness & Startups· not scored

Host predicts Grokbot's high pricing will not be permanent but rather a temporary inference cost management measure

Reported on The AI Breakdownby Aug 12, 2027
OpenMarkets & Economy· not scored

The attribution of US job cuts to AI will become less credible and less frequently cited as an excuse for layoffs in coming months.

Reported on The AI Breakdownby Feb 9, 2027
OpenMarkets & Economy· not scored

Scott Galloway predicts podcast revenues will reach $18 billion by 2030.

Scott Galloway · The Prof G Podby Dec 31, 2030
OpenBusiness & Startups· not scored

Lon reports Anthropic is in talks to acquire Descartes AI for approximately $6 billion.

On This Week in StartupsAug 15, 2026
OpenScience· not scored

Matthias Hoffman predicts ophthalmology will have 20-30% fewer ophthalmologists in ten years.

On This Week in Startupsby Aug 13, 2036
OpenBusiness & Startups

NPM will require human interactive confirmation via 2FA before new package publishes by January 2027.

Reported on a16z Podcastby Jan 31, 2027