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The Prediction Ledger

What podcast hosts and guests actually predicted — captured verbatim from the transcript, and scored when it resolves. No cherry-picking, no paraphrase.

207
Predictions tracked
4
Resolved
203
Still open
9
Scored people

Recently settled

Latest predictions

OpenAI & Tech· not scored

Mark Pincus predicts major AI companies will reach valuations of at least $10 trillion, likely $20-30 trillion.

On My First MillionJul 10, 2026
OpenCulture & Other· not scored

Tremaine predicts that within 1-2 years, AI-generated celebrity personas will be producing music and acting in Hollywood.

On This Week in Startupsby Feb 21, 2028
OpenMarkets & Economy· not scored

Scott Galloway predicts Elon Musk will likely win the Twitter/X investor lawsuit.

Reported on PivotMar 10, 2026
OpenBusiness & Startups· not scored

Jesse and Ben's will launch nationally with Sprouts Farmers Market.

On How I Built ThisJul 9, 2026
OpenMarkets & Economy· not scored

Daniel predicts Kaspi's dividend yield will compress to 6-7% from current 8%, implying 25-40% upside.

On We Study BillionairesJul 9, 2026
OpenAI & Tech· not scored

Mark predicts the 128 subnet cap on BitTensor will be removed or increased in the near future.

On This Week in StartupsMar 6, 2026
OpenPolitics & Policy· not scored

Karim Sajapur predicts that the likelihood of US military action against Iran is higher than the likelihood of a diplomatic deal.

On The Prof G PodFeb 26, 2026
OpenPolitics & Policy

Peter Zeihan predicts Trump will handpick the 2028 Republican nominee and maintain control through threats of replacement.

On The Prof G Podby Nov 8, 2028
OpenMarkets & Economy

China's national oil companies predict China's overall oil demand will peak by 2027, moved forward from earlier estimates around 2030.

On Odd Lotsby Dec 31, 2028
OpenPolitics & Policy

Jessica Tarleff predicts that the Iran conflict must be resolved before Trump's scheduled trip to Beijing next month (April 2026).

On The Prof G Podby Apr 30, 2026
OpenAI & Tech

Meta will begin producing its first custom AI chips in September 2026.

Reported on The AI Breakdownby Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI & Tech

Andy Parker predicts StepPharma will move lymphoma trial into safety expansion cohort and make phase two decisions by end of 2026.

On Beyond Biotechby Dec 31, 2026
OpenAI & Tech

Andrew Feldman predicts Cerebras will achieve more than 2x improvement in inference performance over the next 18 months.

On All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedbergby Jan 10, 2028
OpenMarkets & Economy

David Pierce predicts that computer prices will continue to rise and the situation will worsen.

On The VergecastJul 10, 2026
OpenAI & Tech

Within six months of a frontier AI model release, an open-source model will match its capabilities at 1/100th the cost

Reported on David SenraJul 12, 2026
OpenMarkets & Economy

Jason predicts SpaceX stock will be down approximately 50% in five years.

On We Study Billionairesby Jul 12, 2031
OpenPolitics & Policy

Trump's executive order mandates US government computing systems migrate to post-quantum cryptography by 2030-2031

Reported on The Vergecastby Dec 31, 2031
OpenCulture & Other

Matt Bellany predicts Taylor Swift will not make a movie or special about her wedding to Travis Kelce.

On Pivotby Jul 12, 2029