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The Prediction Ledger

What podcast hosts and guests actually predicted — captured verbatim from the transcript, and scored when it resolves. No cherry-picking, no paraphrase.

1,032
Predictions tracked
59
Resolved
971
Still open
11
Scored people

Recently settled

Latest predictions

OpenMarkets & Economy· not scored

Gene Sykes predicts 2026 M&A market will be significantly larger than the 2021 peak.

On Odd Lotsby Mar 31, 2027
OpenCulture & Other· not scored

Gene Sykes predicts the 2028 Olympic and Paralympic Games will be held in Southern California in less than two years from the episode date.

On Odd Lotsby Sep 30, 2028
OpenCulture & Other· not scored

Gene Sykes predicts 15 million tickets will be sold for the 2028 LA Olympic and Paralympic Games combined.

On Odd Lotsby Sep 30, 2028
OpenCulture & Other· not scored

Aaron Katz predicts the US will advance further in the 2030 World Cup than in previous tournaments.

On 20VC (20 Minute VC)by Dec 31, 2030
OpenPolitics & Policy· not scored

Jim Vandehei predicts Democrats will win the House and have a reasonable chance of winning the Senate in the upcoming midterm elections.

On Masters of Scaleby Nov 30, 2026
OpenMarkets & Economy· not scored

Rory predicts intense demand for compute will continue for at least 12 months from the episode date (Sept 2026)

On 20VC (20 Minute VC)by Sep 3, 2027
OpenAI & Tech· not scored

Alice Han predicts increased investment from Europe, Middle East, and G7 countries into Chinese AI startups and GPs over the next year.

On The Prof G Podby Sep 2, 2027
OpenAI & Tech· not scored

Andrew predicts NVIDIA's next-generation Vera Rubin GPU will reduce AI token generation costs by 10x.

On Investing for Beginnersby Dec 31, 2027
OpenPolitics & Policy· not scored

Gordon predicts that AI security cooperation will become a central issue in US-China relations within months to years.

On Software Engineering Dailyby Dec 31, 2027
OpenMarkets & Economy· not scored

Tim Sanders predicts that by next year (2027), approximately two-thirds of B2B software buyers will use AI chat to generate software shortlists and conduct evaluation.

On Eye on AIby Dec 31, 2027
OpenBusiness & Startups· not scored

Stuart Medina predicts Bio Spain 2026 Talent Day will exceed the 125 job interviews arranged in the previous year

On Beyond Biotechby Oct 2, 2026
OpenAI & Tech· not scored

Jason predicts Elon/SpaceX will demonstrate serious amounts of compute in space within the next year (by 2027).

Jason Calacanis · This Week in Startupsby Sep 15, 2027
OpenAI & Tech· not scored

Brad Gerstner predicts the top three AI labs (Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX) will collectively reach $180B annual run rate revenue by end of 2026.

On All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedbergby Dec 31, 2026
OpenAI & Tech· not scored

Dario Amodei predicts that within 6-12 months, a misaligned AI swarm could take over the internet and cause hundreds of billions in damage.

On The AI Breakdownby Mar 15, 2027
OpenBusiness & Startups· not scored

Alex Karp predicts Palantir will grow at a rate equal to or above US commercial business growth (approximately 150% YoY) for the next 18 months.

Reported on We Study Billionairesby Feb 27, 2028
OpenBusiness & Startups· not scored

SpaceX will achieve $100 billion annual revenue run rate by December 2026

Reported on Investing for Beginnersby Dec 31, 2026
OpenMarkets & Economy· not scored

Host predicts massive supply chain pain will occur within three weeks.

Reported on a16z Podcastby Sep 12, 2026
OpenMarkets & Economy· not scored

Matina Stevis-Gridnev predicts that Prime Minister Carney will organize a major investment conference in mid-September in Toronto and will travel to Brazil to cut new trade deals.

On The Daily (NYT)by Sep 30, 2026