“So even if the straight were to open tomorrow, that won't come back on within sixty days. So there's already enough damage to cause a global energy induced recession, even if it stops right now.”
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Global recession is declared by major economic institutions (IMF, NBER, or equivalent) with causation linked to energy disruption from the Iran conflict.
Karim Sajapur predicts that the likelihood of US military action against Iran is higher than the likelihood of a diplomatic deal.
Jessica Tarleff predicts that the Iran conflict must be resolved before Trump's scheduled trip to Beijing next month (April 2026).
Jessica Tarleff reports that Iran believes it can sustain conflict for 60-90 days.
James King predicts China will land a person on the lunar South Pole by 2030.
Peter Zeihan predicts Trump will handpick the 2028 Republican nominee and maintain control through threats of replacement.
Kai Risdahl predicts that affordability and consumer prices will get worse due to tariff pass-through effects.
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