“I believe I have a very high degree of certainty, like, bordering on certainty, conviction bordering on certainty that there will be refunds. And I don't think it's gonna take that long. I think you're gonna see refunds this year”
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Observable distribution of tariff refunds to importers by end of 2026
Ray Wong predicts significant new DRAM wafer capacity will come online in 2026 and throughout 2027.
China's national oil companies predict China's overall oil demand will peak by 2027, moved forward from earlier estimates around 2030.
Alexis Maxwell predicts US corn yield will be 182 bushels per acre in 2026, down from 186 in 2025.
Ray Wong predicts Apple will experience meaningful market impact from memory chip costs in the second half of 2026 rather than earlier quarters.
Ray Wong predicts server-driven HBM will be the top priority for memory makers in the next two to three years.
Ray Wong predicts Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will continue increasing CapEx in 2027 to expand DRAM and HBM capacity.
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