Graham Allison predicts Trump will declare the Iran war over before his China trip on March 29, 2026, though defense officials expect it to last another month or longer.
“So my inclination, again, if we were just doing, prediction markets, is that he's gonna find a way to declare this over before then because he's needs a little time to get his mind set on that. But if you ask the folks at the defense department or if you ask the people in Israel, they're thinking this is another month or beyond this award.”
→ Read the source episode
Our resolution criterion
disputableTrump makes a public declaration that the Iran military conflict is over before March 29, 2026
Resolution
Marked incorrect on Aug 4, 2026.
Re-scored push->wrong 2026-09-02. The criterion is unambiguous: Trump publicly declares the Iran conflict over BEFORE March 29, 2026. The cited PBS timeline records the ceasefire beginning in early April, after the deadline.
→ SourceMore from All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Brad Gerstner predicts only 25 gigawatts of compute will be added in 2027, with 12.5 gigawatts going to Anthropic and OpenAI.
Chamath predicts CIOs will be fired within next year for data leakage via frontier model APIs
Chamath predicts NVIDIA/Jensen will surpass Chinese AI models by end of 2027.
Brad Gerstner predicts the top three AI labs (Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX) will collectively reach $180B annual run rate revenue by end of 2026.
Michael Kratios predicts the first elements of a moon base will be established by 2030.
Jared Isaacman predicts Artemis four will occur in 2028 with American astronauts returning to the lunar surface.
Summaries are ours; the quote is a verbatim transcript excerpt. Our resolution criteria are editorial and disputable. How this works.