“President Trump has said the campaign could continue for four or five weeks, and the Pentagon has confirmed US military casualties with American troops killed in action and more expected.”
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Observable end date of active US military campaign operations against Iran; whether campaign lasted approximately 4-5 weeks from March 2, 2026 (i.e., through mid-April 2026)
Karim Sajapur predicts that the likelihood of US military action against Iran is higher than the likelihood of a diplomatic deal.
Jessica Tarleff predicts that the Iran conflict must be resolved before Trump's scheduled trip to Beijing next month (April 2026).
Jessica Tarleff reports that Iran believes it can sustain conflict for 60-90 days.
James King predicts China will land a person on the lunar South Pole by 2030.
Peter Zeihan predicts Trump will handpick the 2028 Republican nominee and maintain control through threats of replacement.
Kai Risdahl predicts that affordability and consumer prices will get worse due to tariff pass-through effects.
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