“reporting shows that Iran feels like they can dig in for sixty to ninety days, frankly.”
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Iran continues active military operations or resistance for at least 60 days from the date of the strikes (early March 2026); observable through military engagement reports and conflict status.
Karim Sajapur predicts that the likelihood of US military action against Iran is higher than the likelihood of a diplomatic deal.
Jessica Tarleff predicts that the Iran conflict must be resolved before Trump's scheduled trip to Beijing next month (April 2026).
James King predicts China will land a person on the lunar South Pole by 2030.
Peter Zeihan predicts Trump will handpick the 2028 Republican nominee and maintain control through threats of replacement.
Kai Risdahl predicts that affordability and consumer prices will get worse due to tariff pass-through effects.
Scott Galloway predicts Democrats will take back Congress and have a nonzero probability of taking the Senate based on prediction markets.
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