Scott predicts major European banks (Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas) will announce significant write-downs on emerging market debt, triggering credit spread widening.
“European banks holding that emerging market debt start announcing write downs. Foreign banks, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, all hugely exposed. Credit spreads blow out. And we get sort of a not this to the same extent, but we get an o eight style, which bank is next moment.”
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Our resolution criterion
disputableDeutsche Bank and/or BNP Paribas announce material write-downs on emerging market debt; credit spreads (measured by investment-grade and high-yield spreads) widen significantly
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