Skip to main content
OpenScience· Tier C · not scored· not scored

Nathan predicts 30% probability China will develop functional EUV by January 1, 2029.

On Cognitive Revolution · unverified speaker · Cognitive Revolution · Sep 5, 2026

“I'll say 30% that they're able to make this all work by that time.”

→ Read the source episode

Our resolution criterion

disputable

China demonstrates a functional EUV lithography machine by 2029-01-01.

Target: Jan 1, 2029Dispute this

Get notified when this claim resolves

One email when a tracked prediction is settled. No spam.

More from Cognitive Revolution

Summaries are ours; the quote is a verbatim transcript excerpt. Our resolution criteria are editorial and disputable. How this works.