“I'll say 30% that they're able to make this all work by that time.”
→ Read the source episode
China demonstrates a functional EUV lithography machine by 2029-01-01.
Bronson reports Anthropic's framework targets early 2027 for automated R&D capability.
Misha Gurevich predicts far-UVC lamp prices could drop to around $100 per unit within the next couple of years with zero technological innovation.
Prakash predicts 80% probability China will develop a functional EUV lithography machine by January 1, 2029.
Patrick McKenzie predicts broad deployment of far-UVC in the United States by 2030, but expects to lose this bet due to slower-than-expected adoption.
OpenAI's Jalapeno inference chip will be in data centers by the end of next year (2027).
Prakash indicates the show will continue next Monday with compacted context.
Summaries are ours; the quote is a verbatim transcript excerpt. Our resolution criteria are editorial and disputable. How this works.