We Study Billionaires

→ WHAT IT COVERS Victor Haghani, co-founder of Long-Term Capital Management and current CIO of Elm Wealth, traces his four-decade investing career from Salomon Brothers' arbitrage desk through LTCM's 90% collapse in 1998 to building a low-cost, dynamically allocated index investment firm, extracting lessons on position sizing, expected utility, and surviving catastrophic risk.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley revisit their Exor NV investment thesis, examining how the Italian holding company's ~60% discount to net asset value has widened since purchase at $86/share (now $79), with Ferrari as the primary underlying asset trading at 36x earnings after falling from 57x, and assess whether the thesis remains intact.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Shawn O'Malley and Kyle Grieve analyze Intuit (INTU), the S&P 500's worst performer in 2026, down 60% from its peak despite 15% revenue growth and 30% operating profit growth. They examine whether AI disruption fears are overblown and whether the stock at 16x earnings represents a generational buying opportunity or a value trap. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Valuation Disconnect:** Intuit traded at a median 50x earnings from 2015–2025 and compounded at 24% annually.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Daniel Mahncke pitches dLocal (DLO), a Uruguay-founded B2B payments company serving global tech giants like Amazon, Netflix, and Uber across 60+ emerging markets. Trading at 15x earnings with 50%+ revenue growth, dLocal processes $40B annually in total payment volume, acting as the single API connecting Western merchants to fragmented emerging market payment rails.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Christopher Begg, CEO/CIO of East Coast Asset Management and Columbia Business School security analysis instructor, explains his concentrated portfolio approach — holding fewer than 10 companies — built around identifying "hidden in plain sight" businesses with widening moats, secular tailwinds, and strong operators, while using graph theory, cloud analysis, and deep attention to separate temporary misperception from permanent impairment.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley analyze Perimeter Solutions (PRM), a serial acquirer modeled on the TransDigm playbook, led by TransDigm founder Nicholas Howley. The episode covers PRM's two business segments—fire safety and specialty products—its acquisition strategy, founder advisory fee structure, competitive moats, key risks, and an intrinsic value estimate of $46 per share.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley analyze Fairfax Financial (FFH.TO), a Canadian insurance holding company led by Prem Watsa that has compounded book value at 18% annually since 1985. The episode covers Fairfax's business model, GFC bet, capital allocation strategies, competitive advantages, management structure, valuation, and comparison to Berkshire Hathaway. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Float as free leverage:** Fairfax grew its insurance float from $13M in 1985 to $40.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley analyze Pinduoduo (PDD), the Chinese e-commerce giant trading at roughly 3x forward operating profits with $60 billion cash representing ~60% of its $110 billion market cap. They examine PDD's team-buying model, Temu's regulatory collapse, domestic competition from Douyin, and whether the valuation compensates for opacity and geopolitical risk.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley analyze SpaceX's post-IPO valuation of $2.5 trillion across three business segments — space launches, Starlink connectivity, and the XAI/Twitter AI unit — examining competitive moats, TAM projections, executive compensation tied to Mars colonization, and whether current pricing at 110x revenue offers any margin of safety.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley analyze Kaspi.kz ($KSPI), a Kazakhstan-based super app controlling payments, e-commerce, and fintech for 70% of the country's 20 million people. Trading at roughly 7x earnings, the company generates 65%+ net income margins on payments and 8% dividend yield, while expanding into Turkey through a $1.1B acquisition of Hepsiburada.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Shawn O'Malley and Daniel Mahncke analyze RH (formerly Restoration Hardware), a $3.5B revenue luxury home furnishings company attempting to build an American luxury empire through galleries, restaurants, yachts, private jets, and hotels under CEO Gary Friedman, while carrying $2.5B in term loan debt against a $2.8B market cap. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Counter-cyclical expansion strategy:** When housing markets freeze and competitors retreat, RH accelerates investment.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley analyze Auto1 Group, a Berlin-founded used car marketplace operating across Europe. With 840,000 cars sold annually at 22% growth, 3% market share, and a €700 billion total addressable market, they examine whether Auto1 can replicate Amazon's dominance in European used car transactions. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Graveyard Advantage:** Every major online used car competitor—Cazoo (raised €2B, went bust), Shift, CarLotz (both bankrupt), and Carvana...

→ WHAT IT COVERS Emily Haisley, head of the behavioral finance team at BlackRock — the world's largest asset manager with $14 trillion in assets under management — explains how her team uses portfolio analytics, physiological data from Oura rings, AI-powered market simulations, and structured group decision-making processes to identify and reduce costly behavioral biases in professional fund managers.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley analyze American Tower (AMT), a REIT owning ~150,000 cell towers globally, currently in a ~40% drawdown from 2021 highs. They examine its three competitive moats, deteriorating balance sheet with $37.3B in debt, REIT structural constraints, and why the business earns admiration but not a portfolio position at current prices. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Multi-tenant operating leverage:** A single AMT tower costs $275,000 to build.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Stig Brodersen, Tobias Carlisle, and Hari Ramachandra pitch three AI-pressured stocks — Meta, Booking Holdings, and Adobe — each trading at significant discounts from recent highs. The discussion centers on whether AI represents genuine disruption or temporary market fear, examining CapEx risk, switching costs, distribution advantages, and valuation across all three companies.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Daniel Mahncke pitches Copa Holdings (CPA), a Panama-based airline trading at roughly 8x earnings, to a skeptical Shawn O'Malley. The episode examines why airlines historically destroy capital, then builds the case that Copa's geographic hub position, sub-$0.06 cost structure, and 38-year CEO tenure create durable structural advantages unavailable to competitors.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve examines Ron Insana's bubble framework from *Trend Following*, tracing recurring patterns from 1850s plank road companies through the 1990s tech crash to today's AI buildout. Using Kindleberger's five-stage model and Insana's five-ingredient checklist, the episode provides concrete tools for distinguishing overvalued assets from genuine compounders.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley analyze QXO, Brad Jacobs' latest roll-up targeting the $300B North American building products distribution industry. Jacobs, who previously generated 55x returns at United Waste and 50x at XPO, aims to reach $50B in revenue within a decade through acquisitions of Beacon Roofing, Kodiak Building Partners, and TopBuild.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Shawn O'Malley and Daniel Mahncke analyze Grab Holdings, the Southeast Asian super app that forced Uber to exit the region entirely. The episode covers Grab's origin story, its cash-payment architecture, proprietary mapping system, fintech flywheel, path to profitability, and key risks including regulatory take-rate cuts and loan book opacity across eight countries.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Daniel Mahncke pitches Wix as a value opportunity trading at 4-5x free cash flow after a 30% post-earnings drop, arguing the market misunderstands the company's transition from a drag-and-drop website builder into an AI-native platform anchored by its 2025 acquisition of Base 44, a vibe-coding tool growing 50% every 12 weeks from $3M to $150M ARR.