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OpenPolitics & Policy· Tier C · not scored· not scored

Shane Goldmacher predicts Democratic nominee James Talarico will significantly outperform Ken Paxton among independent voters in the Texas Senate race.

On The Daily (NYT) · unverified speaker · The Daily (NYT) · Sep 16, 2026

“And so the polls that show him roughly tied or even ahead have him crushing Ken Paxton among independent voters.”

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Our resolution criterion

disputable

Exit polls or post-election analysis from the Texas Senate race show Talarico winning independent voters by a substantial margin over Paxton.

Target: Nov 3, 2026Dispute this

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