We Study Billionaires

→ WHAT IT COVERS Chris Bloomstran of Semper Augustus joins Stig Brodersen to assess Berkshire Hathaway's 2025 intrinsic value at approximately $1.25 trillion (B shares worth ~$5.70), analyze Greg Abel's first shareholder letter, examine why reported operating earnings misled markets by nearly $3 billion, and evaluate broader S&P 500 valuation risks tied to record profit margins of 12.8% against a 26x earnings multiple.

→ WHAT IT COVERS CoStar Group, a $30B commercial real estate data company with 59 consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth, faces a battleground moment as it burns through a $5B residential bet on homes.com to challenge Zillow, while activist investor Third Point demands a board overhaul and $300M spending reduction, forcing a reckoning between its profitable core franchise and an uncertain consumer pivot.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Clay Finck and Daniel Mahncke analyze four companies — MercadoLibre, Amazon, Constellation Software, and Hermes — examining how AI, robotics, and secular growth trends affect their long-term earnings power. The episode also marks Finck's final appearance as a We Study Billionaires host, with Mahncke stepping into an expanded hosting role.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Hosts Sean O'Malley, Daniel Mahncke, and Kyle Grieve review the Intrinsic Value Portfolio heading into 2026, covering top holdings including Alphabet at 14%, Airbnb at 11.5%, and Uber at 10.5%, while announcing the removal of Copart and TransDigm in favor of expanding Amazon to 9%, and updating watchlist companies Trade Desk and FICO after 70–85% price declines.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Matthew Mc, head of the global value team at First Eagle Investments overseeing $130 billion, outlines a framework for building resilient wealth during geopolitical and economic turmoil. He covers portfolio construction using "variegation," positional assets like gold, scarce-market-position businesses, valuation margins of safety, and the psychological discipline required to maintain a patient, long-horizon investment approach across multiple decades.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve and Daniel Mahncke analyze Wise PLC, a cross-border payments company that compounded reported profits at 90% annually over five years yet delivered only 1% annual returns since its 2021 IPO at 390x earnings. The episode covers Wise's unique liquidity-matching business model, four revenue streams, competitive positioning against banks and fintechs, scale economics, and a five-year destination analysis projecting £450 billion in payment volume.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve reviews *Stock Market Maestros* by Lee Freeman-Shor and Claire Finn-Levy, profiling 12 elite fund managers whose median hit rate sits at 49%. The episode examines three performance metrics—behavioral alpha score, hit rate, and payoff ratio—and how five distinct investor archetypes manage winners and losers to generate market-beating returns.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Clay Finck and Daniel Mahncke conduct a deep dive into Kinsale Capital, a specialty insurer dominating the U.S. excess and surplus market. Since its 2016 IPO, Kinsale has compounded at 37% annually by targeting small, hard-to-place risks with proprietary technology, in-house underwriting, and a combined ratio of 76% — far below the industry average of 91%.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve applies eight mental models from Shane Parrish's "The Great Mental Models Volume 4" to investing, drawing from both economics and art. He covers scarcity, supply and demand, optimization, specialization, efficiency, monopolies, bubbles, audience, contrast, framing, and plot — using examples from Hermes, Peloton, Costco, Enron, and Constellation Software subsidiaries Lumine and Topicus.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve examines the 1960s Go-Go Years bubble through John Brooks' book, tracing how Ross Perot's EDS IPO at 118x earnings, Gerald Tsai's momentum-driven Fidelity fund, conglomerate financial engineering, and fraudulent schemes like Atlantic Acceptance Corporation created and destroyed fortunes when valuation discipline collapsed entirely. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Valuation Risk vs.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve examines six venture capital frameworks—power law returns, Moore's Law, Metcalfe's Law, de-risking, long-horizon arbitrage, and MOIC—and translates them into actionable strategies for public equity investors. He draws on personal portfolio data showing two positions generating 45% of total returns across approximately 40 investments over six years.

→ WHAT IT COVERS François Rochon of Giverny Capital, who has compounded capital at 13.4% annually since 1993, discusses navigating AI disruption across his portfolio, explains why Constellation Software trades cheaply at 18x earnings after a 50% drawdown, analyzes Alphabet and Meta's $280B combined CapEx as defensive spending, and outlines why rationality, humility, and patience define long-term investing success.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve traces three generations of the Davis investing dynasty, from Shelby Davis turning $50,000 into $900,000,000 over 47 years through concentrated insurance holdings, to son Shelby Davis navigating the Nifty Fifty collapse, to grandson Chris Davis managing $20,000,000,000 today — revealing how compounding, patience, and sector expertise built generational wealth.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Clay Finck analyzes Nintendo's 137-year evolution from Japanese playing card manufacturer to a $65B gaming ecosystem, examining the Switch 2's record-breaking launch, Nintendo's strategic shift toward recurring subscription revenue, expanding IP monetization through films and theme parks, and whether the stock's 35% decline from August 2025 highs presents a compelling entry point for value investors.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve analyzes John Malone's career at TCI, where he compounded share price at 30% annually for 27 years. The episode covers Malone's "what if not" downside framework, intelligent debt structuring, tax deferral strategies, the Liberty Media spinoff, the SiriusXM rescue deal, and lessons from cable's failure to counter Netflix's rise. → KEY INSIGHTS - **"What If Not" Framework:** Before any deal, Malone asked what happens if the deal fails completely.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Clay Finck covers two topics: Bill Perkins' book *Die with Zero*, which argues that money should fund life experiences rather than accumulate indefinitely, and a stock analysis of Linde PLC, the world's largest industrial gas company that has compounded at 12% annually since 1993 versus the S&P 500's 8%. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Consumption Smoothing:** Rather than saving rigidly during low-income years, align spending with your expected lifetime earnings trajectory.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Stig Brodersen, Tobias Carlisle, and Hari Ramachandra each pitch one stock in this Q1 2026 mastermind session: Berkshire Hathaway during its CEO transition to Greg Abel, Moody's credit rating duopoly at a 22% discount, and BellRing Brands protein drinks trading at an 11% free cash flow yield after an 80% price collapse. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Berkshire Valuation Framework:** Break Berkshire into two buckets — operating businesses (apply ~17x multiple to ~$40B normalized earnings =...

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve examines John Maynard Keynes as an investor who compounded capital at 16% annually for 24 years, beating the UK index by 6% per year through two world wars and the Great Depression. The episode traces Keynes' evolution from a macro-driven speculator who went broke twice to a concentrated, long-term business owner. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Speculation vs.

→ WHAT IT COVERS William Green distills essential investing lessons from Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital ($223B AUM), and hedge fund manager Nima Shayegh of Rumi Partners, alongside reflections on Lou Simpson's 31-year record at GEICO. The episode covers AI euphoria parallels to the 1999 dot-com bubble, qualitative business analysis, emotional discipline, and Stoic philosophy for navigating uncertainty.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Clay Finck breaks down Daniel Kahneman's *Thinking Fast and Slow*, connecting System 1 and System 2 thinking to investor behavior. The episode covers cognitive biases—loss aversion, anchoring, availability bias, overconfidence, and substitution—then applies these directly to stock investing, with a closing analysis of Constellation Software's 50%-plus drawdown from its May 2025 high.