We Study Billionaires

→ WHAT IT COVERS Hosts Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley revisit Uber as a portfolio holding, examining why the stock has gone sideways despite bookings compounding at 20% annually, free cash flow reaching $10B, and operating margins swinging 55 percentage points from -43% to +12% — while the market prices in existential risk from Waymo and autonomous vehicles.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley analyze AppLovin (APP), a mobile advertising technology company trading at a mid-teens EV/EBITDA multiple after falling over 50% in 2026, despite compounding revenue at 55% annually. They examine AppLovin's two-sided ad marketplace, competitive moat, capital allocation history, AI disruption risk, and whether the stock warrants inclusion in their intrinsic value portfolio.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley revisit Comfort Systems USA (FIX), a mechanical, electrical, and plumbing contractor Shawn passed on at $320/share that subsequently rose 5x to ~$1,800, driven by explosive AI data center spending. The episode examines whether the miss reflects a flawed process or an unforeseeable cyclical tailwind, and whether the stock remains attractive today.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley analyze Palantir's business model, competitive moat, and valuation across its four platforms — Gotham, Foundry, Apollo, and AIP. Revenue growth accelerated from 12% in 2023 to 90% year-over-year, net margins reached 60%, and the Rule of 40 score hit 155%, prompting a reassessment of whether the stock is as overpriced as it appears.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Stig Brodersen hosts a bull-bear debate on CATL, the world's largest battery maker with 40% EV battery market share and a $280 billion market cap. Manish Karira presents the bull case centered on AI data center energy storage and licensing revenue, while forensic accountant Ralph Summerford challenges the thesis with geopolitical, pricing, and cash flow risks.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley analyze Domino's Pizza (DPZ), the world's largest pizza chain with 22,300+ stores across 90 markets. The episode examines its royalty-based franchise model, ~$4.8B debt load, 40% stock decline from all-time highs, Berkshire's full exit, and whether stalled same-store sales represent a temporary setback or permanent deterioration. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Franchise Royalty Economics:** Domino's collects 5.5% royalties on U.S.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Hosts Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley review their portfolio's biggest winners — Alphabet, Amazon, and Reddit — analyzing why each position succeeded, whether they remain buys at current prices, and what patterns from missed opportunities like TSMC, Dell, and Comfort Systems reveal about identifying future compounders. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Narrative vs.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley conduct a post-mortem on three portfolio losers — Lululemon (sold at $116 from $200 entry), PayPal (sold at significant loss in the low-to-mid $60s), and Adobe (down ~70% from highs) — analyzing what went wrong, which warning signs were missed, and whether any represent buying opportunities today. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Discounting as a leading indicator:** For retail brands like Lululemon, monitor the percentage of inventory sold at full price...

→ WHAT IT COVERS Victor Haghani, co-founder of Long-Term Capital Management and current CIO of Elm Wealth, traces his four-decade investing career from Salomon Brothers' arbitrage desk through LTCM's 90% collapse in 1998 to building a low-cost, dynamically allocated index investment firm, extracting lessons on position sizing, expected utility, and surviving catastrophic risk.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley revisit their Exor NV investment thesis, examining how the Italian holding company's ~60% discount to net asset value has widened since purchase at $86/share (now $79), with Ferrari as the primary underlying asset trading at 36x earnings after falling from 57x, and assess whether the thesis remains intact.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Shawn O'Malley and Kyle Grieve analyze Intuit (INTU), the S&P 500's worst performer in 2026, down 60% from its peak despite 15% revenue growth and 30% operating profit growth. They examine whether AI disruption fears are overblown and whether the stock at 16x earnings represents a generational buying opportunity or a value trap. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Valuation Disconnect:** Intuit traded at a median 50x earnings from 2015–2025 and compounded at 24% annually.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Daniel Mahncke pitches dLocal (DLO), a Uruguay-founded B2B payments company serving global tech giants like Amazon, Netflix, and Uber across 60+ emerging markets. Trading at 15x earnings with 50%+ revenue growth, dLocal processes $40B annually in total payment volume, acting as the single API connecting Western merchants to fragmented emerging market payment rails.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Christopher Begg, CEO/CIO of East Coast Asset Management and Columbia Business School security analysis instructor, explains his concentrated portfolio approach — holding fewer than 10 companies — built around identifying "hidden in plain sight" businesses with widening moats, secular tailwinds, and strong operators, while using graph theory, cloud analysis, and deep attention to separate temporary misperception from permanent impairment.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley analyze Perimeter Solutions (PRM), a serial acquirer modeled on the TransDigm playbook, led by TransDigm founder Nicholas Howley. The episode covers PRM's two business segments—fire safety and specialty products—its acquisition strategy, founder advisory fee structure, competitive moats, key risks, and an intrinsic value estimate of $46 per share.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley analyze Fairfax Financial (FFH.TO), a Canadian insurance holding company led by Prem Watsa that has compounded book value at 18% annually since 1985. The episode covers Fairfax's business model, GFC bet, capital allocation strategies, competitive advantages, management structure, valuation, and comparison to Berkshire Hathaway. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Float as free leverage:** Fairfax grew its insurance float from $13M in 1985 to $40.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley analyze Pinduoduo (PDD), the Chinese e-commerce giant trading at roughly 3x forward operating profits with $60 billion cash representing ~60% of its $110 billion market cap. They examine PDD's team-buying model, Temu's regulatory collapse, domestic competition from Douyin, and whether the valuation compensates for opacity and geopolitical risk.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley analyze SpaceX's post-IPO valuation of $2.5 trillion across three business segments — space launches, Starlink connectivity, and the XAI/Twitter AI unit — examining competitive moats, TAM projections, executive compensation tied to Mars colonization, and whether current pricing at 110x revenue offers any margin of safety.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley analyze Kaspi.kz ($KSPI), a Kazakhstan-based super app controlling payments, e-commerce, and fintech for 70% of the country's 20 million people. Trading at roughly 7x earnings, the company generates 65%+ net income margins on payments and 8% dividend yield, while expanding into Turkey through a $1.1B acquisition of Hepsiburada.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Shawn O'Malley and Daniel Mahncke analyze RH (formerly Restoration Hardware), a $3.5B revenue luxury home furnishings company attempting to build an American luxury empire through galleries, restaurants, yachts, private jets, and hotels under CEO Gary Friedman, while carrying $2.5B in term loan debt against a $2.8B market cap. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Counter-cyclical expansion strategy:** When housing markets freeze and competitors retreat, RH accelerates investment.

→ WHAT IT COVERS Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley analyze Auto1 Group, a Berlin-founded used car marketplace operating across Europe. With 840,000 cars sold annually at 22% growth, 3% market share, and a €700 billion total addressable market, they examine whether Auto1 can replicate Amazon's dominance in European used car transactions. → KEY INSIGHTS - **Graveyard Advantage:** Every major online used car competitor—Cazoo (raised €2B, went bust), Shift, CarLotz (both bankrupt), and Carvana...