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TIP853: Aritzia (ATZ.TO): The Women's Apparel Brand Conquering the US, plus Nike, Lulu, and More w/ Kyle Grieve & Shawn O'Malley

83 min episode · 3 min read
·

Episode

83 min

Read time

3 min

Topics

Health & Wellness, Fundraising & VC, Leadership

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • ✓US Expansion Runway: Aritzia operates 76 US boutiques versus 67 Canadian locations, yet the US has nine times Canada's population. Management estimates the US can support roughly 300 stores at full penetration. US revenue already represents 67% of total sales and grew 55% last quarter, suggesting the expansion is executing well before reaching anything close to saturation.
  • ✓Store Economics Signal: New Aritzia boutiques generate approximately $1,000 per square foot versus an industry benchmark of $400–$700, and management targets a 12–18 month payback period on new store capital. Average CapEx per location runs around $1.5M. When payback periods stay in that range and revenue per square foot holds, new store openings remain the highest-returning capital deployment available.
  • ✓US Pricing Arbitrage Drives Margin Expansion: Aritzia prices products at near-identical nominal figures in both countries — a $300 CAD jacket sells for roughly $265 USD — meaning US customers pay a significant premium in Canadian dollar terms on identical input costs. This structural pricing gap explains why gross margins expanded from 37% a decade ago to 46% today even as US revenue share grew.
  • ✓Tariff Responsiveness as Competitive Signal: When US-China tariffs hit 145%, Aritzia reduced China-sourced production from 30–35% of inputs down to mid-single digits within months, shifting to lower-tariff countries like Vietnam. Simultaneously, they rerouted US-bound shipments through their Ohio distribution center to avoid Canadian duty exposure. Margin expansion continued through this period, signaling genuine supply chain flexibility.
  • ✓Comparable Sales as Brand Health Indicator: Comparable sales — measuring stores open at least one year — grew 35% last quarter, stripping out new store openings from the headline number. This metric provides the clearest read on whether existing customers remain engaged. Watch for deceleration here, alongside gross margin compression and increased discounting, as early warning signs that brand momentum is fading.

What It Covers

Kyle Grieve and Shawn O'Malley analyze Aritzia (ATZ.TO), a Canadian women's apparel brand expanding aggressively into the US market. With the stock down 31% despite 43% revenue growth last quarter, they examine whether the brand's competitive position, store economics, and US expansion runway justify a 33x earnings multiple.

Key Questions Answered

  • •US Expansion Runway: Aritzia operates 76 US boutiques versus 67 Canadian locations, yet the US has nine times Canada's population. Management estimates the US can support roughly 300 stores at full penetration. US revenue already represents 67% of total sales and grew 55% last quarter, suggesting the expansion is executing well before reaching anything close to saturation.
  • •Store Economics Signal: New Aritzia boutiques generate approximately $1,000 per square foot versus an industry benchmark of $400–$700, and management targets a 12–18 month payback period on new store capital. Average CapEx per location runs around $1.5M. When payback periods stay in that range and revenue per square foot holds, new store openings remain the highest-returning capital deployment available.
  • •US Pricing Arbitrage Drives Margin Expansion: Aritzia prices products at near-identical nominal figures in both countries — a $300 CAD jacket sells for roughly $265 USD — meaning US customers pay a significant premium in Canadian dollar terms on identical input costs. This structural pricing gap explains why gross margins expanded from 37% a decade ago to 46% today even as US revenue share grew.
  • •Tariff Responsiveness as Competitive Signal: When US-China tariffs hit 145%, Aritzia reduced China-sourced production from 30–35% of inputs down to mid-single digits within months, shifting to lower-tariff countries like Vietnam. Simultaneously, they rerouted US-bound shipments through their Ohio distribution center to avoid Canadian duty exposure. Margin expansion continued through this period, signaling genuine supply chain flexibility.
  • •Comparable Sales as Brand Health Indicator: Comparable sales — measuring stores open at least one year — grew 35% last quarter, stripping out new store openings from the headline number. This metric provides the clearest read on whether existing customers remain engaged. Watch for deceleration here, alongside gross margin compression and increased discounting, as early warning signs that brand momentum is fading.
  • •Reverse DCF Reveals Market Assumption Gap: At current prices, a reverse discounted cash flow model implies the market prices in roughly 12% annual revenue growth. Kyle's base case models 15% revenue growth with margins expanding modestly from 20.6% to 21%, producing a base case intrinsic value around $215 per share. Applying a 20% margin of safety across weighted scenarios yields an intrinsic value near $148, representing approximately a 23% discount to current price.

Notable Moment

Kyle's wife still owns TNA-brand leggings purchased over 20 years ago — a detail that surfaced during product quality research. A community member's wife, visiting New York from Canada while wearing Aritzia clothing, discovered that most American women she encountered had never heard of the brand at all.

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Episode Transcript

You're listening to TIP. Welcome back to the Investors Podcast episode eight fifty three. Today, we're covering a business that I personally know better than almost any other because I've owned it since 2020, and it's still actually the largest position in my personal portfolio, and that business is Aritzia. I came into this episode knowing you'd be pitching Aritzia and maybe feeling a little gun shy because the last premium apparel brand that I fell in love with was Lululemon, and and that just has not quite gone to plan for me. And I think that's why I'm really excited to dig into this one with you Sean. You know, you've held a stock through as many ups and downs as I have with Aritzia, you really have to ask yourself some of the hard questions like, is this business getting better or worse? Or am I holding this because the thesis still works or because I've just gotten more and more attached to this specific name? Well, I think they're really valid questions for both of us and also our third co host Daniel to be constantly asking ourselves about every position that we hold in our intrinsic value portfolio. But the timing of our conversation today around Aritzia is definitely very interesting. The stock has been hit pretty hard recently, and yet the business is putting up some of the best growth numbers in its history of being a public company. So either the market is seeing something we aren't or it's handing investors a special chance to buy into a business that rarely looks cheap. I'm excited to find the answer to that question. Let's go. Since 2014, with more than 200,000,000 downloads, we have interviewed the world's best investors, studied deeply the principles of value investing, and uncovered many compelling investment opportunities. We focus on understanding businesses and intrinsic value, investing accordingly, and sharing everything we learn with you. This show is not investment advice. It's intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. All opinions expressed by hosts and guests are solely their own, and they may have investments in the securities discussed. Now for your hosts, Sean O'Malley and Kyle Grieve. This is an episode that I'm very excited to do because I've really wanted to cover this business for a while, but the timing just never seemed quite right. So I've covered many businesses on this podcast that we ended up skipping simply because they were just too expensive. But Aritzia, the business that I'm about to cover changes things up a bit. So the price is currently down about 31%, but Aritzia is a business I already own in my personal account and it's actually been there since 2020. Now being a shareholder since that time hasn't been the easiest ride. You know, since owning it. I've gone through multiple drawdowns ranging from 30 to 65%, and I think it's one of those kind of classic case studies of why being able …

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