The Unemployment Spike Nobody's Talking About + Why the SpaceX IPO Doesn't Add Up

What It Covers

Scott Galloway analyzes two data-driven topics: a BLS-reported unemployment spike among women aged 25–34 (rising from 4.5% to 5.3% year-over-year through January 2026), and the upcoming SpaceX IPO targeting an $1.8 trillion valuation at 125 times price-to-sales, which Galloway argues is fundamentally disconnected from rational valuation metrics.

Key Questions Answered

• •Women's unemployment concentration: BLS data shows women aged 25–34 experienced an 80 basis point unemployment increase (4.5% to 5.3%) from January 2025 to January 2026 — the largest year-over-year jump of any demographic group. Men in the same age bracket rose only 0.3%. February 2026 pulled back to 4.7%, making March data the critical confirmation point to watch.
• •Federal layoffs as a structural driver: The U.S. government shed over 307,000 jobs in 2025 — eight times more than 2024. Probationary federal employees, over 60% of whom are women in some agencies, were disproportionately cut. This directly targets the 25–34 cohort, which represents early-career and recently promoted workers most exposed to Doge-related workforce reductions.
• •Childcare collapse amplifies labor force exit: Federal childcare subsidies ended September 2024, triggering center closures and tuition increases. Roughly 20% of childcare workers are immigrants, a population further disrupted by 2025 deportations. For women aged 25–34 with toddlers — not yet school-age — the financial calculus of working stopped being viable, pulling them out of the labor force entirely.
• •Universal childcare as economic infrastructure: Galloway frames universal childcare as a high-return economic investment, not a social expenditure. Women's workforce participation post-civil rights protections was a primary driver of U.S. economic dominance. Corporations offering remote flexibility specifically for caregivers — two to three days per week — function as a talent differentiator, particularly for skilled women priced out of rigid office mandates.
• •SpaceX IPO valuation has no rational anchor: SpaceX targets $1.8 trillion at 125 times price-to-sales on $16 billion revenue and $8 billion profit. For comparison, Google IPO'd at 10 times sales while growing 240% annually. SpaceX grows at roughly 25% annually. Wall Street cannot identify a valid peer company for comparison, which historically signals a valuation with no defensible floor and significant post-IPO downside within one to three years.