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We Study Billionaires

TIP778: How My Thinking About Investing Evolved in 2025 w/ Kyle Grieve

63 min episode · 2 min read

Episode

63 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Career Growth, Productivity, Investing

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Flexible Conviction Framework: Maintain strong convictions weakly held by conducting monthly conviction ranking journals using percentages to track whether new information strengthens or weakens thesis. This prevents calcification of beliefs like the Alibaba mistake where stubborn conviction delayed recognition of deteriorating fundamentals and suboptimal shareholder value creation approach.
  • Customer Loyalty Analysis: Audit businesses yearly using Hidden Monopolies framework across twenty line items including satisficing heuristic, switching costs, and exclusivity metrics. Netflix and Apple demonstrate how customer loyalty creates predictable revenue streams, reduces acquisition costs, and enables premium valuations when markets recognize these hidden competitive advantages over traditional moats.
  • Intentional Inactivity Strategy: Deploy capital during market dislocations like April 2025 tariff tantrum rather than monthly purchases. Accumulate cash reserves from employment income with restrictions on buying frequency to capitalize on volatility events. This protects the compounding engine by minimizing portfolio interruptions that create drag, following Buffett's superpower of sitting still.
  • Cultural DNA Assessment: Evaluate businesses through talent density, candor, decentralization, and long term incentive alignment. Netflix's post layoff productivity surge, Amazon's Bar Raiser hiring veto power, and HEICO's small autonomous teams demonstrate how cultural feedback loops attract talent, improve decision quality, and enable decades of compounding beyond founder tenure.
  • Downside Protection System: Increase bear case probabilities from ten percent to thirty three percent in base models and forty percent for inflection point businesses. Use conservative terminal value multiples aligned with historical averages rather than current twenty eight times S&P 500 multiples. Focus on businesses with low fragility like vertical market software unaffected by tariffs or supply chain disruptions.

What It Covers

Kyle Grieve shares nine strategic shifts learned from studying billionaire investors in 2025, focusing on flexible conviction, customer loyalty analysis, psychological biases, intentional inactivity, company culture assessment, and downside protection through margin of safety principles.

Key Questions Answered

  • Flexible Conviction Framework: Maintain strong convictions weakly held by conducting monthly conviction ranking journals using percentages to track whether new information strengthens or weakens thesis. This prevents calcification of beliefs like the Alibaba mistake where stubborn conviction delayed recognition of deteriorating fundamentals and suboptimal shareholder value creation approach.
  • Customer Loyalty Analysis: Audit businesses yearly using Hidden Monopolies framework across twenty line items including satisficing heuristic, switching costs, and exclusivity metrics. Netflix and Apple demonstrate how customer loyalty creates predictable revenue streams, reduces acquisition costs, and enables premium valuations when markets recognize these hidden competitive advantages over traditional moats.
  • Intentional Inactivity Strategy: Deploy capital during market dislocations like April 2025 tariff tantrum rather than monthly purchases. Accumulate cash reserves from employment income with restrictions on buying frequency to capitalize on volatility events. This protects the compounding engine by minimizing portfolio interruptions that create drag, following Buffett's superpower of sitting still.
  • Cultural DNA Assessment: Evaluate businesses through talent density, candor, decentralization, and long term incentive alignment. Netflix's post layoff productivity surge, Amazon's Bar Raiser hiring veto power, and HEICO's small autonomous teams demonstrate how cultural feedback loops attract talent, improve decision quality, and enable decades of compounding beyond founder tenure.
  • Downside Protection System: Increase bear case probabilities from ten percent to thirty three percent in base models and forty percent for inflection point businesses. Use conservative terminal value multiples aligned with historical averages rather than current twenty eight times S&P 500 multiples. Focus on businesses with low fragility like vertical market software unaffected by tariffs or supply chain disruptions.

Notable Moment

Grieve reveals his largest percentage loss ever came from Simply Solvenless cannabis investment where liking bias caused him to view a failed acquisition as opportunity rather than warning signal, demonstrating how emotions evolve to become more articulate at concealing themselves from rational analysis.

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Episode Transcript

You're listening to TIP. This past year has been a predictably unusual one for me in the markets. Between the tariff tantrum and the AI scare, many of the companies that I own have really been put through the wringer. But after spending hours each day researching investing, I've learned a lot and taken the time to reflect on which of those lessons have really helped me evolve the most in 2025. This episode, like all my previous episodes, won't bother at all guessing with what will happen in 2026. It's about what I've learned that has directly impacted how I think and how I strategize. Now when reflecting on some of the biggest mistakes I've ever made in my investing career, I realized that two of them didn't really stem from poor analysis. They came from fairly simple psychological errors. It's easy to learn about investing and assume that we'll all act rationally, but the reality is far from it. This episode was an excellent exercise for forcing me to confront where my thinking was too rigid, too emotional, or even too optimistic. One of my biggest thinking shifts was realizing that being confident and being flexible can actually coexist. A more uncomfortable realization was the biggest threat to my portfolio isn't interest rates, geopolitical unrest, or AI, but me and my imperfect thinking. I also share my thoughts on fragility of compounding and the steps that I've taken to protect myself so the compounding engine can just continue working. This episode is packed with how I've turned this thinking into usable tools to help me improve as an investor. And the reason I think these tools work is that nearly all of them have been cloned from the legendary investors I get the privilege of studying daily. I'll walk you through updates of my strategy around things like position sizing, how I wait for investments to play out, and how I say no. So if you've ever felt the urge to act when nothing needed to be done or felt extreme confidence right before proven wrong, this episode is just for you because I feel your pain. This episode will help you learn from my mistakes and give you a few ways to think differently about your own investing. Let's jump right in to what I learned in 2025. Since 2014 and through more than 180,000,000 downloads, we've studied the financial markets and read the books that influence self made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Now for your host, Kyle Grieve. Welcome to The Investor's Podcast. I'm your host, Kyle Grieve. And today, I'm happy to discuss my nine biggest learnings from my last year, specifically from this podcast. So the podcast game is just super interesting for me because it's a job where I get to share these incredible lessons with you every episode, but then I can also pick and choose which of these strategies and meta models that …

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