Workday’s Last Workday? AI and the Future of Enterprise Software
Episode
29 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Relationships, Startups, Fundraising & VC
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Platform shift timing: Enterprise software incumbents get displaced during technology transitions, not between them. Workday beat PeopleSoft by rebuilding for cloud in 2005. AI now creates the same window — the first moment a CHRO or CIO can be shown a fundamentally different system architecture, not just a point solution layered on top of existing infrastructure.
- ✓Brownfield over Greenfield: Startups like Gusto pursue Greenfield customers not yet locked into enterprise platforms. The AI-era opportunity is Brownfield — targeting existing Workday customers who have 97% retention not from satisfaction but from switching costs. Enterprises report willingness to replace Workday if a feature-equivalent, AI-native alternative existed and could be deployed in 30–60 days.
- ✓Deployment compression as unlock: Legacy enterprise HR implementations take 12-plus months and significant consulting spend. AI-native coding and migration tooling can compress deployment to 30–60 days. This timeline reduction is the structural prerequisite for rip-and-replace to become viable — without it, switching costs remain prohibitive regardless of product quality or pricing advantages.
- ✓AI revenue skepticism: Workday reports $400M AI ARR growing triple digits, but Schmidt characterizes this as procurement innovation rather than genuine product transformation. Flex credits still require $25,000 licensing fees plus consultants to build anything. No agentic experiences are actually deployed inside customer Workday instances — enterprises are spending AI budgets without receiving AI-native functionality.
- ✓Agent permissioning as next battleground: As companies deploy more AI agents, those agents need role-based permissions and tracking tied to HR data — the same data Workday holds. CIOs are already asking how to manage agent permissioning at scale. An AI-native HR system becomes the identity and permissions layer for the entire agentic enterprise, expanding its strategic value well beyond payroll and benefits.
What It Covers
a16z partner Joe Schmidt argues that Workday — a 20-year-old HR platform with 97% gross dollar retention — faces its first genuine displacement threat from AI-native competitors. The same platform shift logic that let Workday unseat PeopleSoft in 2005 now applies against Workday itself, across HR, CRM, and ITSM categories.
Key Questions Answered
- •Platform shift timing: Enterprise software incumbents get displaced during technology transitions, not between them. Workday beat PeopleSoft by rebuilding for cloud in 2005. AI now creates the same window — the first moment a CHRO or CIO can be shown a fundamentally different system architecture, not just a point solution layered on top of existing infrastructure.
- •Brownfield over Greenfield: Startups like Gusto pursue Greenfield customers not yet locked into enterprise platforms. The AI-era opportunity is Brownfield — targeting existing Workday customers who have 97% retention not from satisfaction but from switching costs. Enterprises report willingness to replace Workday if a feature-equivalent, AI-native alternative existed and could be deployed in 30–60 days.
- •Deployment compression as unlock: Legacy enterprise HR implementations take 12-plus months and significant consulting spend. AI-native coding and migration tooling can compress deployment to 30–60 days. This timeline reduction is the structural prerequisite for rip-and-replace to become viable — without it, switching costs remain prohibitive regardless of product quality or pricing advantages.
- •AI revenue skepticism: Workday reports $400M AI ARR growing triple digits, but Schmidt characterizes this as procurement innovation rather than genuine product transformation. Flex credits still require $25,000 licensing fees plus consultants to build anything. No agentic experiences are actually deployed inside customer Workday instances — enterprises are spending AI budgets without receiving AI-native functionality.
- •Agent permissioning as next battleground: As companies deploy more AI agents, those agents need role-based permissions and tracking tied to HR data — the same data Workday holds. CIOs are already asking how to manage agent permissioning at scale. An AI-native HR system becomes the identity and permissions layer for the entire agentic enterprise, expanding its strategic value well beyond payroll and benefits.
Notable Moment
Schmidt reveals he logged into Workday only three times in the past year despite being an a16z employee, and spent six and a half minutes locating his own compensation data. He used this personal experience as evidence that the core user experience has not meaningfully changed since 2005.
Episode Transcript
No one likes doing, like, these crazy tasks inside of Workday. No employee likes interacting with Workday. No one wants to go into this portal. And so if you can go out there and solve these problems, there's a huge pie to go after. If you think about where you have to go capture these customers, if someone has already become a customer of Workday or already become a customer of ServiceNow or Salesforce, it is so hard to rip them off. That's why these gross dollar retentions are what they are. Like, they're the best standards for a reason. We're seeing the, like, cracks in the most defensible businesses in the world, and it's a really exciting time, and and the race is on. What does it take to replace one of the most entrenched systems in enterprise software? For the past two decades, platforms like Workday have become the backbone of how companies manage people, data, and operations. They're deeply embedded, highly defensible, and nearly impossible to rip out. But platform shifts change the rules. Just as cloud transformed enterprise software in the February, AI is creating a new opportunity to rethink how these systems work, and whether they should exist in their current form at all. The question now is not whether these systems are valuable, but whether they can evolve fast enough. Elena Berger speaks with Joe Schmidt, partner on the enterprise team at a sixteen z. Hello, everyone, and welcome to monitoring the situation. I am here with Joe Schmidt, the fourth. Joe is a Thank you for making that delineation. I appreciate it. Joe is a partner on the enterprise team at a sixteen z, and we are here to actually, I think, first just answer a big important question, which is why has the enterprise team been writing so many obituaries lately, so many eulogies lately? And what have these eulogies been for? Yeah. No. Thanks for having me on. Excited to be here. Yeah. It's funny calling them eulogies. And I think that this piece was intended to be much more balanced than maybe people have have taken it to be. But I think that, you know, if you just think about where we are in the cycle right now, with enterprise software, a lot of the biggest, businesses that are that are out there today were kind of built in the last kind of technology shift, which was obviously a shift from on prem to cloud. And that's really the the big opportunity for most companies that are being built. Selling to big enterprise buyers is basically adopting some big, shift and then building their their platform around it. Once those kind of core primitives have been set, you know, basically, these markets end up moving into, a different type of innovation, which ends up being, like, point solutions that are built on top of some kind of core back end system. And the reason for that is if you think …
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“Joe Schmidt argues that Workday — a 20-year-old HR platform with 97% gross dollar retention — faces its first genuine displacement threat from AI-native competitors.”
“Workday beat PeopleSoft by rebuilding for cloud in 2005. AI now creates the same window — the first moment a CHRO or CIO can be shown a fundamentally different system architecture.”
“Startups like Gusto pursue Greenfield customers not yet locked into enterprise platforms.”
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