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a16z Podcast

John and Patrick Collison on Stripe's Growth, Agent Commerce, and the Future of Software

20 min episode · 2 min read
·
John Collison,Patrick Collison

Episode

20 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Productivity, Startups, Fundraising & VC

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Agentic Commerce Infrastructure: Agentic commerce will require blockchains handling billions of transactions per second — a throughput no existing payment rail achieves today. Stripe incubated Tempo specifically to build this capacity. Founders and operators building agent-facing products should architect payment infrastructure now for this scale, not retrofit legacy rails later.
  • 2025 Cohort Signal: Stripe's 2025 business cohort is both larger in volume and performing better on a per-business basis than any prior year's cohort — simultaneously. This dual movement contradicts assumptions that new AI-era businesses lack substance, and suggests 2026 may accelerate further based on early data from the first weeks of the year.
  • Stablecoins + AI Convergence: Agents using today's payment rails must solve CAPTCHAs and work around infrastructure not designed for machine actors. The practical case for stablecoins is not ideological — it is throughput and latency. Builders designing agent payment flows should evaluate blockchain-native rails rather than defaulting to card-based or ACH infrastructure.
  • Software-as-Pizza Model: Software economics are shifting from fixed-cost-plus-infinite-monetization toward bespoke, inference-cost-per-use creation. Patrick Collison frames this as software moving from freeze-dried mass production to made-to-order, like pizza. Product teams should reconsider pricing models and build assumptions, as winner-take-all dynamics weaken when marginal creation costs are real.
  • Product Specificity Over TAM Reasoning: Stripe never modeled itself against global GDP percentages — it focused on solving a concrete developer pain point. The same logic applies to Tempo and Atlas, which grew from specific founder complaints, not market-size spreadsheets. Founders should validate by identifying one acute, named pain point rather than top-down addressable market calculations.

What It Covers

John and Patrick Collison share Stripe's 2024 data revealing 34% growth and over $1 trillion processed, while outlining why agentic commerce will require blockchain infrastructure capable of billions of transactions per second, and reframing software itself as bespoke, on-demand creation rather than mass-produced product.

Key Questions Answered

  • Agentic Commerce Infrastructure: Agentic commerce will require blockchains handling billions of transactions per second — a throughput no existing payment rail achieves today. Stripe incubated Tempo specifically to build this capacity. Founders and operators building agent-facing products should architect payment infrastructure now for this scale, not retrofit legacy rails later.
  • 2025 Cohort Signal: Stripe's 2025 business cohort is both larger in volume and performing better on a per-business basis than any prior year's cohort — simultaneously. This dual movement contradicts assumptions that new AI-era businesses lack substance, and suggests 2026 may accelerate further based on early data from the first weeks of the year.
  • Stablecoins + AI Convergence: Agents using today's payment rails must solve CAPTCHAs and work around infrastructure not designed for machine actors. The practical case for stablecoins is not ideological — it is throughput and latency. Builders designing agent payment flows should evaluate blockchain-native rails rather than defaulting to card-based or ACH infrastructure.
  • Software-as-Pizza Model: Software economics are shifting from fixed-cost-plus-infinite-monetization toward bespoke, inference-cost-per-use creation. Patrick Collison frames this as software moving from freeze-dried mass production to made-to-order, like pizza. Product teams should reconsider pricing models and build assumptions, as winner-take-all dynamics weaken when marginal creation costs are real.
  • Product Specificity Over TAM Reasoning: Stripe never modeled itself against global GDP percentages — it focused on solving a concrete developer pain point. The same logic applies to Tempo and Atlas, which grew from specific founder complaints, not market-size spreadsheets. Founders should validate by identifying one acute, named pain point rather than top-down addressable market calculations.

Notable Moment

Patrick Collison suggested that Q1 2026 may eventually be recognized as the first quarter of the technological singularity — not as a marketing claim, but based on Stripe's real transaction cohort data showing an accelerating phase transition in business formation and performance beginning in 2025.

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Episode Transcript

The world is gonna need platforms that support billions of transactions per second, billions of transactions per second, which no payment rail or platform does today. Where we think things will go is just there will be a huge amount of agentic commerce. And again, we're seeing a little bit of it today. We think there'll be a torrent of it. And that is what unite stablecoins and AI because we think you're going to need blockchains and better blockchains. Up until now, the economics of software have been conceived of as fixed cost and then infinitely monetize or monetize as much as possible that has these, you know, winner take all dynamics. But once there are inference costs and custom creation involved, it really shifts. I mean, one executive who said, oh, yeah. We started, you know, augmenting our customer service with AI so people are more productive, but we're just gonna go back to doing it the old fashioned way. Stripe processed more than 1,000,000,000,000 in payments last year. It grew 34%. And according to Patrick Collasum, twenty twenty six q one may be looked back on as the first quarter of the singularity. That's not a marketing line. It's what the data is showing. The twenty twenty five cohort of businesses on Stripe is larger and performing better on a per business basis than any prior cohort, and the trend is accelerating. In this conversation recorded live on TBPN, John and Patrick Collison walk through what they're actually seeing in the real economy. Why agentic commerce will require blockchains capable of billions of transactions per second, and a reframe on software itself, from mass produced product to something bespoke, cooked fresh at the moment of use, like pizza. This conversation originally aired on t b p n, hosted by John Coogan and Georgie Hayes. We have John Patrick Collison The OGs. From Stripe. How are you guys doing? What's going on? Greetings. Welcome to the show. Thank you so much. This is, this is huge. I went through YC. You guys were massively, influential in my career, and, it's a joy to speak to you today on such a big day. But I'd love for you to kick it off with the actual news. What happened? Why are we talking to you today? We have two announcements today. One is we're launching a tender offer for, employees and that and kind of the evaluation, everything, tended to, get a bunch of the headlines. The thing that was honestly, more work was we released our annual letter where every year we, sum up all the trends, that we're seeing, on Stripe. And, Stripe is growing a lot. We grew at 34% last year because the businesses on Stripe, are growing a lot. And there's just, as you guys know, there's a lot happening in tech right now. This is why we need TVPN. This is why we need a non stop stream of everything going on because there …

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  • Stripe incubated Tempo specifically to build this capacity [for blockchains handling billions of transactions per second]
  • The same logic applies to Tempo and Atlas, which grew from specific founder complaints, not market-size spreadsheets.
  • John and Patrick Collison share Stripe's 2024 data revealing 34% growth and over $1 trillion processed

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