BTC254: Bitcoin & Macro Overview w/ Luke Gromen Q4 2025 (Bitcoin Podcast)

You're listening to TIP. Hey, everyone. Welcome to this Wednesday's release of the Bitcoin Fundamentals podcast. Today, I'm joined by Luke Gromen to break down the growing financial stress inside The US system from the Treasury's heavy reliance on the short term funding to the signals coming out of the repo market, and why record tax receipts still aren't enough to cover the interest and entitlements. We also touch on the global pressure points, the dollar, and why Bitcoin remains the earliest warning sign for liquidity. This is surely an episode you won't wanna miss. So without further ado, let's jump right into the conversation. Celebrating ten years. You are listening to Bitcoin Fundamentals by The Investor's Podcast Network. Now for your host, Preston Pysh. Hey, everyone. Welcome to the show. I'm here with the one and only Luke Roman. Welcome back. Luke Gromen (3one forty seven): Thanks for having me back. It's great to see you again. And I'm sorry we didn't have more time to catch up down in Nashville. I think- Jeremy Grantham (3one forty eight): Oh, that's right. Yeah. Yeah. We only had a little bit to talk there, but it wasn't as exciting as it is right now. So we didn't miss out on too much. Jason Brett (zero twenty seven:forty seven): No, no. It's exciting and I think it's going to get a lot more exciting in the next three to six months. Preston Pysh (zero twenty seven:forty eight): Yeah. For the person who's not intimately familiar with all the terminology and the nuances of macroeconomics, explain it in very simple language in your opinion, what's taking place right now. Jack Mallers (thirty seven:forty eight): Oh, boy. I guess if I had to say, we're running headlong towards a poly crisis of sorts. There's a lot of things going on. You know, for starters, the fiscal situation, which was for all of the hubbub about tariff receipts, and they were a record. So we had record tariff receipts. And we had record all time high receipts overall. The fact is we're still at when you look at true interest expense, which is which gross interest expense plus entitlement pay goes, plus veterans affairs benefits, you're still 96% ish on as a percent of receipts that are all time highs. So we're still right in that hot zone of if anything slows down, you're gonna be right back over a 100%. You're right back into, you know, printer default mode, and they they always choose print. They have to. Furthermore, we're now seeing early signs of stress in the overnight funding markets. There's a variety of views on that. Mine is that it is essentially we're now thirty months into The US shifting issuance to the front end because there's not enough demand at the back end. And as a result, Bestant has a Red Queen or Axl Rose problem, if you will. I used to do a little, but the little wouldn't do it. …