The Election That Will Define Israel’s Future
Episode
33 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Leadership, Design & UX, Sales & Revenue
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Electoral divide: Netanyahu and Eisenkot each command roughly half the Israeli electorate, with polls varying only a few points in either direction. Because Israel uses coalition-based parliamentary voting — citizens choose a party, not a prime minister directly — the race could produce an inconclusive result requiring additional elections, as occurred multiple times between 2019 and 2021.
- ✓Ultra-Orthodox draft crisis: Ultra-Orthodox men, a rapidly growing demographic with large families, have historically held military service exemptions. That exemption was ruled illegal in 2024, yet Netanyahu — who depends on Ultra-Orthodox parties to maintain his coalition — publicly opposed arrests of draft evaders, signaling that enforcement will remain stalled under his continued leadership.
- ✓Accountability as campaign strategy: Eisenkot centers his platform on establishing a national commission of inquiry into October 7 failures, modeled on the U.S. 9/11 Commission. Netanyahu refuses any such commission. Eisenkot, who lost a son and two nephews in Gaza combat, uses personal sacrifice to contrast directly with Netanyahu's sons' minimal or absent military service.
- ✓West Bank policy divergence: Eisenkot proposes removing West Bank military administration and civil authority from Finance Minister Smotrich's control, and removing Israeli police from National Security Minister Ben-Gvir's oversight — the two officials most associated with enabling settler violence. He also supports evacuating illegal outposts built in areas designated for Palestinians under the Oslo Accords.
- ✓Legislative hardball scenario: If Eisenkot's bloc wins a parliamentary majority but cannot form a governing coalition, his allies are considering passing targeted laws before a government is formed — including banning candidates facing criminal trial from serving as prime minister and imposing term limits — measures that would directly disqualify Netanyahu from future leadership.
What It Covers
NYT Jerusalem bureau chief David Helfinger analyzes Israel's first election since October 7, framing the contest between incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu and challenger Gadi Eisenkot as a referendum on democratic institutions, military service equity, settler violence in the West Bank, and the country's long-term social contract — not Palestinian statehood.
Key Questions Answered
- •Electoral divide: Netanyahu and Eisenkot each command roughly half the Israeli electorate, with polls varying only a few points in either direction. Because Israel uses coalition-based parliamentary voting — citizens choose a party, not a prime minister directly — the race could produce an inconclusive result requiring additional elections, as occurred multiple times between 2019 and 2021.
- •Ultra-Orthodox draft crisis: Ultra-Orthodox men, a rapidly growing demographic with large families, have historically held military service exemptions. That exemption was ruled illegal in 2024, yet Netanyahu — who depends on Ultra-Orthodox parties to maintain his coalition — publicly opposed arrests of draft evaders, signaling that enforcement will remain stalled under his continued leadership.
- •Accountability as campaign strategy: Eisenkot centers his platform on establishing a national commission of inquiry into October 7 failures, modeled on the U.S. 9/11 Commission. Netanyahu refuses any such commission. Eisenkot, who lost a son and two nephews in Gaza combat, uses personal sacrifice to contrast directly with Netanyahu's sons' minimal or absent military service.
- •West Bank policy divergence: Eisenkot proposes removing West Bank military administration and civil authority from Finance Minister Smotrich's control, and removing Israeli police from National Security Minister Ben-Gvir's oversight — the two officials most associated with enabling settler violence. He also supports evacuating illegal outposts built in areas designated for Palestinians under the Oslo Accords.
- •Legislative hardball scenario: If Eisenkot's bloc wins a parliamentary majority but cannot form a governing coalition, his allies are considering passing targeted laws before a government is formed — including banning candidates facing criminal trial from serving as prime minister and imposing term limits — measures that would directly disqualify Netanyahu from future leadership.
Notable Moment
A clip from Israel's Saturday Night Live equivalent captures the national dilemma: two old friends meet at an airport, each fleeing their country — one leaving Israel for New York, one leaving New York for Israel — both convinced the other's destination is the worse option.
Episode Transcript
This message comes from Betterment. Betterment's Dan Eagan talks about tax loss harvesting. Tax loss harvesting is a tax management strategy. When you have a position that's gone down over time, we intentionally sell out of it to realize a loss, which we then say to the IRS, hey. We lost money. You get to use that to offset your ordinary income every year, decreasing your tax burden. Investing involves risk. Performance not guaranteed. Betterment does not offer tax advice. TLH may not be suitable for all customers. Learn more at betterment.com slash TLH dash terms. From The New York Times, I'm Rachel Abrams, and this is The Daily. Israelis head to the polls next week, and on the ballot is the future of a country that's become increasingly isolated on the world stage, both because of the war in Gaza and a growing outcry over settler violence in the West Bank. And so today, our colleague Jerusalem bureau chief David Hauptfinger explains how prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu differs from his biggest challenger on the issues that have divided the country and why Israelis on both sides viewed this election as existential. It's Thursday, October 22. David Helfinger, welcome to The Daily. Good to be here. So, David, you are now in your second stint as Jerusalem bureau chief. How many Israeli elections have you covered at this point? This would be number four. Wow. I covered three inconclusive elections the last time, and here I am again. We'll see what this one is like. This one feels different, at least from here in The United States. The election is on Tuesday, and this will be the first election since October 7. And I wonder, David, if you could just sort of lay out how Israelis see this moment and how we, the rest of the world, should see this moment. Yeah. It's really striking. I've covered a lot of elections. I've never covered one in which so many people feel like this election is the most important, the most fateful, the most consequential election in their country's history. You know, really, there are two blocks here. There's the Netanyahu led government block, and there's the opposition block. The numbers in the polls suggest each have roughly half the country. The polls vary by a few points in either direction for both of them. Mhmm. And it's making some people, at least many people, certainly in the opposition camp, feel like if it doesn't go the way they're hoping, they might even not see a future for themselves in this country. It's really quite something. And it's not just about Netanyahu. Netanyahu, obviously, is a symbol to the outside world of this Israel, the Israel of the Gaza war, the Israel that's in an ongoing conflict where its extremist settlers are marauding through much of the West Bank. These are the things that much of the world sees Netanyahu as symbolizing and leading and representing. For Israelis, it's about a …
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