A New Middle East?

What It Covers

Trump authorized US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities after decades of presidential refusals, marking a major shift in Middle East policy. Aaron David Miller analyzes Israel's military dominance, Iran's weakened position, and uncertain regional outcomes.

Key Questions Answered

• •Israel's Escalation Dominance: Israel now controls the pace and intensity of military conflict with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran in ways these adversaries cannot match or deter, fundamentally shifting regional power dynamics since October 7th attacks.
• •Iranian Nuclear Program Status: International Atomic Energy Agency assessments indicate Iran remains a nuclear threshold state with all elements needed to assemble a weapon, despite strikes setting the program back only months, not years or permanently.
• •Trump's Transactional Approach: Unlike Biden's emotional commitment to Israel, Trump operates without strategic core, simultaneously pressuring Israel on hostage negotiations and Houthi deals while ultimately providing bunker buster bombs previous presidents refused to authorize for Iranian strikes.
• •Leadership Vacuum Problem: Converting military dominance into lasting political arrangements requires leaders who master their political houses rather than serve ideologies, but Netanyahu faces corruption trials, Palestinians lack coherent authority, and Iran's aging supreme leader prioritizes regime preservation.