REALLY GOOD BREAKS

What It Covers

David Dredge of Convex Strategies explains his volatility hedging approach, identifying major global imbalances in Japan, China, and Europe while discussing current opportunities in FX volatility and the parallels between today's market and the mid-1990s period.

Key Questions Answered

• •FX Volatility Opportunity: Euro-related FX volatility reached 2021-level cheapness in 2024, particularly in euro crosses like euro-sterling and euro-Swiss, offering hedging opportunities before Germany's fiscal announcement triggered significant repricing and reduced availability of attractive structures.
• •Portfolio Construction Framework: Allocating capital to volatility hedging acts as high-performance brakes on a portfolio, enabling investors to hold more aggressive risk assets with reduced drawdowns and improved long-term compounding, though active management requires constant rebalancing as time decay erodes protection.
• •Systemic Risk Location: Post-GFC risk has migrated from banks to non-bank financial institutions, private credit, and pension funds, placing losses directly on capital owners rather than requiring taxpayer bailouts, fundamentally changing where systemic vulnerabilities accumulate in the financial system.
• •1990s Market Parallel: Current conditions mirror 1995-1999 when aggressive Fed accommodation, subsequent rate hikes, then cuts amid stock market highs created a capital suction from emerging markets into US assets, producing 28.6% annual S&P returns while devastating Asian and Russian markets.