REALLY GOOD BREAKS
Episode
40 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Investing, Fundraising & VC, Leadership
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓FX Volatility Opportunity: Euro-related FX volatility reached 2021-level cheapness in 2024, particularly in euro crosses like euro-sterling and euro-Swiss, offering hedging opportunities before Germany's fiscal announcement triggered significant repricing and reduced availability of attractive structures.
- ✓Portfolio Construction Framework: Allocating capital to volatility hedging acts as high-performance brakes on a portfolio, enabling investors to hold more aggressive risk assets with reduced drawdowns and improved long-term compounding, though active management requires constant rebalancing as time decay erodes protection.
- ✓Systemic Risk Location: Post-GFC risk has migrated from banks to non-bank financial institutions, private credit, and pension funds, placing losses directly on capital owners rather than requiring taxpayer bailouts, fundamentally changing where systemic vulnerabilities accumulate in the financial system.
- ✓1990s Market Parallel: Current conditions mirror 1995-1999 when aggressive Fed accommodation, subsequent rate hikes, then cuts amid stock market highs created a capital suction from emerging markets into US assets, producing 28.6% annual S&P returns while devastating Asian and Russian markets.
What It Covers
David Dredge of Convex Strategies explains his volatility hedging approach, identifying major global imbalances in Japan, China, and Europe while discussing current opportunities in FX volatility and the parallels between today's market and the mid-1990s period.
Key Questions Answered
- •FX Volatility Opportunity: Euro-related FX volatility reached 2021-level cheapness in 2024, particularly in euro crosses like euro-sterling and euro-Swiss, offering hedging opportunities before Germany's fiscal announcement triggered significant repricing and reduced availability of attractive structures.
- •Portfolio Construction Framework: Allocating capital to volatility hedging acts as high-performance brakes on a portfolio, enabling investors to hold more aggressive risk assets with reduced drawdowns and improved long-term compounding, though active management requires constant rebalancing as time decay erodes protection.
- •Systemic Risk Location: Post-GFC risk has migrated from banks to non-bank financial institutions, private credit, and pension funds, placing losses directly on capital owners rather than requiring taxpayer bailouts, fundamentally changing where systemic vulnerabilities accumulate in the financial system.
- •1990s Market Parallel: Current conditions mirror 1995-1999 when aggressive Fed accommodation, subsequent rate hikes, then cuts amid stock market highs created a capital suction from emerging markets into US assets, producing 28.6% annual S&P returns while devastating Asian and Russian markets.
Notable Moment
Dredge reveals Germany's recent fiscal policy announcements rank among the most stunning and potentially frightening developments in his career, comparable only to the 1990 reunification period when 9% bund yields briefly created AAA sovereign debt opportunities.
Episode Transcript
Well, welcome to Current Yield Grant's interest rate observer of the air. I am Jim Grant, and with me, as this is the great deputy editor of, grants, Evan Lorenz. Evan is not here, but he is virtually here. Good morning, Evan. Good morning, Jim. And, we have, hanging out in Singapore where it is not nine in the morning, but rather ten in the evening is David Dredge. And, David, good evening to you. Good morning over there, guys. Good to be with you. Well, it's great to have you. It's not everybody who's just gonna hop on the phone at 10PM to, talk about volatility, and and Henry French is, making sure that our voices are in a listen. So, I am going to begin we we ordinarily Evan and I ordinarily begin by bantering about, current events. You know, I say something about scam coins and the most, venal administration in the history of North America. You know, stuff like that. But, I want to in in view of the sacrifices that our guest is making with respect to time, I wanna begin by introducing him properly. And here it goes. Okay. So I'm going to quote, besides the CV, which is formidable, and I'll touch in that one moment. But here is how David Drej introduced himself to the, attendees at the grants conference, two autumns ago, October 2023. Quote, I'm not trying to make money. Okay. Now, Evan, how many of our speakers have ever admitted that? Before the fact or after the fact? Correct. Okay. Resume I would say about zero. Right. Resume the quote. I'm only on the defensive side. Okay. So and he continued. By way of elaboration, I don't have a view. I don't have a forecast. I simply buy cheap volatility. Now this is from the man who, founded, something called Convex Strategies. That'll give you a clue about what he's just for a living. And, who earlier in his business business life, built and ran Aegon and Global EM trading businesses for RBS Bankers Trust and Bank America. And while, procuring an MBA at University of California, David Bridge studied under none other than Janet Yellen. And in a moment, we will ask him what he has chosen to unlearn from that experience. But I, one of the most striking things about his CV is that, he sits, I think it's still currently on the, on the, markets committee of the monetary authority of Singapore. That's pretty good for a guy from Utah. And the the longest longest serving member of said markets committee, I believe. Oh, goodness. Well, nothing like a little longevity. I myself happen to have not had a promotion in forty two years, David. Yeah. Hey, David. The world is, nothing if not interesting, and, your business is volatility. Is this not high cotton for you? It's, we're we're busy. I'll I'll say that. And, it concerns us because, you know, we're in the business …
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