A CERTAIN SKEPTICISM
Episode
34 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Investing, Sales & Revenue, Philosophy & Wisdom
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Fed Transparency Risk: Federal Reserve's shift from Greenspan's purposeful obfuscation to Powell's detailed forward guidance creates short volatility trades and carry strategies that paradoxically increase systemic risk by suppressing volatility premiums and reducing market resilience to shocks.
- ✓S&P Correlation Mispricing: Options markets price S&P 500 components with historically low correlation assumptions, creating fragile diversification expectations. This mispricing stems from ETF structures and mutual funds selling options for income, compressing volatility risk premiums below safe levels for absorbing macro shocks.
- ✓Gold Options Strategy: Gold exhibits rare positive correlation between price and volatility, rising 25% this year with zero correlation to S&P 500. Six to nine month out-of-money calls offer convex hedges against dollar weakness and debt crises, benefiting from both asset appreciation and implied volatility expansion.
- ✓Treasury Market Vulnerability: US debt dynamics mirror pre-crisis UK conditions where bonds sold off alongside equities. April 2025 tariff tantrum ranks third worst volatility event after 2008 financial crisis and COVID crash, signaling governance concerns outweigh default risk in bond market pricing.
What It Covers
Dean Kernat of MacroRisk Advisors discusses Federal Reserve transparency creating volatility suppression, mispriced options in S&P 500 and gold, declining correlation premiums, and potential US Treasury market crisis risks from unsustainable debt dynamics.
Key Questions Answered
- •Fed Transparency Risk: Federal Reserve's shift from Greenspan's purposeful obfuscation to Powell's detailed forward guidance creates short volatility trades and carry strategies that paradoxically increase systemic risk by suppressing volatility premiums and reducing market resilience to shocks.
- •S&P Correlation Mispricing: Options markets price S&P 500 components with historically low correlation assumptions, creating fragile diversification expectations. This mispricing stems from ETF structures and mutual funds selling options for income, compressing volatility risk premiums below safe levels for absorbing macro shocks.
- •Gold Options Strategy: Gold exhibits rare positive correlation between price and volatility, rising 25% this year with zero correlation to S&P 500. Six to nine month out-of-money calls offer convex hedges against dollar weakness and debt crises, benefiting from both asset appreciation and implied volatility expansion.
- •Treasury Market Vulnerability: US debt dynamics mirror pre-crisis UK conditions where bonds sold off alongside equities. April 2025 tariff tantrum ranks third worst volatility event after 2008 financial crisis and COVID crash, signaling governance concerns outweigh default risk in bond market pricing.
Notable Moment
Kernat reveals that 2017 under Trump recorded the lowest realized volatility in both stock and bond markets in fifty years, requiring a look back to the early 1960s for comparable calm, contradicting expectations of chaos from his presidency.
Episode Transcript
Well, this is current yield grants interest rate observer of the air. I'm Jim Grant. With me, as always, is the great deputy editor of grants, Evan Lorenz. Hey, Evan. Good afternoon, Jim. And, Henry French is our sound engineer. And with us today as our guest is Dean Kernat, founder and CEO of MacroRisk Advisors, from whom we will hear in a lot just in a moment. Hey, Evan. I guess two things. First of all, with respect to the, the demand by, Bill Pulte of the Federal Home Finance Agency that Congress investigate, Jay Powell for cause having to do with the, 2 and a half billion dollar thoroughly stinking renovation of the Eccles Building. What do you what do you think about it? Is that bullish or bearish for bonds? Maybe first one and then the other. Yeah. Dean's gonna have something to say. I think about it. I, Bill Pulte was the guy, I think, in the very current issue of grounds we quoted as saying that that he was demanding an investigation of Powell in anticipation of his congressional testimony. So that's like divination. Right? He didn't even have to hear it or see it or read it. He just knew it was gonna Yeah. It's kind of the evolution of monetary policy. Forty years ago when, when Volker was raising rates into the mid teens levels, home builders would mail two by fours to the, Fed saying that we can't build houses with these. You know, you might as well take them from us. And now the regulator for the, mortgage industry is calling for the head of the Fed. Yeah. Because of the water features, skylights, roof terrace. He wants them, removed for cause. And private elevator, I think. Private elevator. Yeah. That's I think that was the that I think that that pushed over the top. Well, Dean, welcome to our current you know, Dean is, has been around the street a little bit before he became the entrepreneur that he is today, and he has, before that, a most distinguished career at the University of Chicago, Quanti, Mathi, and, copped the prize from, Citibank as the, as the most, like, risk knowing. My graduate school in the University of Chicago. I've we have laughed about this a little bit together over the years. Citi is, I mean Your favorite bank. There are many good things to say about Citicorp, but it's it's it's, it's it's single-minded devotion to risk control is probably not the top excellence of the institution. You know, it's when I got that award, it was all the money in the world, $5,000 in, 1995. You know, little did I know that they would, not just be a recipient of TARP money, years later, but, be backstopped, I think twice, ring fenced assets and so forth. So, still happy to have won the reward. Yes. As you as you said, risk control may not be their finest, discipline. …
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