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Grant's Current Yield Podcast

NOTHING NEW UNDER THE SUN

43 min episode · 2 min read
·
James H.M. Scraegan

Episode

43 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Productivity, Health & Wellness, Investing

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Interest Rate Impact: Companies leveraged at six times EBITDA in 2021 when SOFR was 0.05% now face SOFR at 4.33%, consuming an extra 26% of EBITDA for debt service, creating widespread capital structure stress across private equity portfolios.
  • Private Equity Backup: The 29,000 private equity portfolio companies represent a record high with IPO markets largely closed to exits. University endowments now sell secondary stakes not for operations but to fund capital commitments to other PE funds.
  • Fixed Charge Coverage Decline: Average fixed charge coverage ratios for private equity companies have fallen to approximately one, with 40% of PE companies generating negative free cash flow in 2024, signaling widespread restructuring needs ahead without dramatic maturity wall.
  • Asset-Based Lending Advantage: Asset-based lending provides safer positioning than cash flow lending during elevated rate environments because underwriting focuses on liquidation value rather than EBITDA multiples, avoiding reliance on adjusted earnings metrics that mask underlying business weakness.

What It Covers

Bankruptcy lawyer James Scraegan discusses liability management exercises, private equity vulnerabilities, Trump's negotiating tactics, and restructuring opportunities as interest rates remain elevated while 29,000 private equity portfolio companies face liquidity challenges.

Key Questions Answered

  • Interest Rate Impact: Companies leveraged at six times EBITDA in 2021 when SOFR was 0.05% now face SOFR at 4.33%, consuming an extra 26% of EBITDA for debt service, creating widespread capital structure stress across private equity portfolios.
  • Private Equity Backup: The 29,000 private equity portfolio companies represent a record high with IPO markets largely closed to exits. University endowments now sell secondary stakes not for operations but to fund capital commitments to other PE funds.
  • Fixed Charge Coverage Decline: Average fixed charge coverage ratios for private equity companies have fallen to approximately one, with 40% of PE companies generating negative free cash flow in 2024, signaling widespread restructuring needs ahead without dramatic maturity wall.
  • Asset-Based Lending Advantage: Asset-based lending provides safer positioning than cash flow lending during elevated rate environments because underwriting focuses on liquidation value rather than EBITDA multiples, avoiding reliance on adjusted earnings metrics that mask underlying business weakness.

Notable Moment

Scraegan reveals Trump's negotiating pattern from the GM Building dispute: start with maximalist demands, create chaos and uncertainty, then settle for more than entitled to but less than initially demanded, a strategy now playing out with tariff policy.

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Episode Transcript

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to, Grant's interest rate observer of the air. I am, Jim Grant, and with me as always is, the great deputy editor of Grant Civil Lorenz. And, Henry French, as per usual, is at the, control panel. He's our sound engineer. And, we have a guest today. He is, James h m Scraegan, a world renowned bankruptcy lawyer, vice chairman now of Hilco Global, and having spent more than three decades, in bankruptcy and restructuring practice at Kirkland and Ellis where he and D founded their global restructuring department and led such high profile bankruptcy proceedings as those involving, UAL Corp and Caesars Entertainment Operating Co, Inc. But I say, Jamie, that I have just two other things to add to your CV. One is that you were a featured speaker at our spring, restructuring or, distressed investing event. We had that a couple weeks ago. And second, ladies and gentlemen, is that Jamie's Greg Regan starts the day with, with push ups. Not 100, not 200. No. Not 300, not 400, not 500. 600 push ups. That's one hand, is it not Jamie? Two hands. Two legs. Two hands. Two hands. Yeah. Okay. Okay. Well, I just wanted to get that out there because, we've had guests that, you know, that, due to all sorts of singular, striking things for music, but I think that Evan, do you recall anyone who did push ups for as a as a as a form of advocation? You know, it's a it's like a hobby. The the people who make it through the, the podcast office, they seem to be a little more on the intellectual side rather than the, I always say restructures are contact sports. You need to be, I would say that in a person and and mine, Jamie Swarigan, we have both the, physical and the cerebral. So, Evan, I I'm I'm calling in, by the way, Lisa. I am calling in. I'm working from home, a distant home. The truth be told, I am recovering from a, a hip replacement operation. But still, Evan, we closed initial grants last night, and I must say I must say it was an outstanding issue. And I I invite you, as, an employee of this organization to remind me, because nobody's getting any younger, remind me how great it was. Fantastic. Best ever. Bigly. Oh, no. And and in what respect does re do you recall it being, excellent is indeed unique? Tom. I actually thought it was a classic grants issue. It it starts off with a front page piece that takes into account what's happening in the markets, including The USA losing its last triple a rating, what it means for money and credit. It goes on to a in-depth, look at two different, stocks that appear to be value laden. It looks at opportunities in the bond market. It also comments on what's happening in the overall market and the contradictions they're in. …

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