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Grant's Current Yield Podcast

IN A TROUBLED WAY

46 min episode · 2 min read
·
Seth Wiseman,Evan Lorenz,Harrison Woodill

Episode

46 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Productivity, Remote Work, Relationships

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Office CMBS Delinquencies: Office building delinquency rates now exceed Great Recession peaks due to remote work reducing space demand by 50% while supply remains constant, creating unprecedented value declines of 60% that wipe out equity and mezzanine tranches completely.
  • Multifamily Rate Impact: Buildings financed at 3.5-4% rates now face 6-6.5% refinancing costs, effectively doubling debt service and eliminating cash flow despite strong rental fundamentals, with 60% loan-to-value positions becoming 100% loan-to-value after regulatory changes and rate hikes combined.
  • Private Credit Advantage: Urban Standard Capital earns 12% coupons at 60% loan-to-value without requiring 10-30% deposit relationships that banks now demand, providing certainty of execution while banks struggle with deposit flight to money markets and larger institutions for safety.
  • Bank Extension Strategy: Regional banks extend troubled loans rather than foreclose to avoid crystallizing losses that would trigger stock price collapse and potential bank runs, creating slow crisis resolution but preventing systemic failure as regulators permit gradual workout approaches.

What It Covers

Seth Wiseman discusses commercial real estate crisis dynamics, focusing on office building delinquencies exceeding Great Recession levels, multifamily loan stress from rate increases, and private credit opportunities emerging from bank retreat and regulatory pressures.

Key Questions Answered

  • Office CMBS Delinquencies: Office building delinquency rates now exceed Great Recession peaks due to remote work reducing space demand by 50% while supply remains constant, creating unprecedented value declines of 60% that wipe out equity and mezzanine tranches completely.
  • Multifamily Rate Impact: Buildings financed at 3.5-4% rates now face 6-6.5% refinancing costs, effectively doubling debt service and eliminating cash flow despite strong rental fundamentals, with 60% loan-to-value positions becoming 100% loan-to-value after regulatory changes and rate hikes combined.
  • Private Credit Advantage: Urban Standard Capital earns 12% coupons at 60% loan-to-value without requiring 10-30% deposit relationships that banks now demand, providing certainty of execution while banks struggle with deposit flight to money markets and larger institutions for safety.
  • Bank Extension Strategy: Regional banks extend troubled loans rather than foreclose to avoid crystallizing losses that would trigger stock price collapse and potential bank runs, creating slow crisis resolution but preventing systemic failure as regulators permit gradual workout approaches.

Notable Moment

Trump issued a meme coin reaching 60 billion dollars market capitalization, marking the first time in American history a sitting president promoted a purely speculative zero-sum asset with no economic utility beyond price movement.

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Episode Transcript

Welcome to Current Yield, Grant's interest rate observer of the air. I am Jim Grant, and with me, unfailingly is the gentleman to my right, the great deputy editor of Grant's, Evan Lorenz. Evan, that's that's you? I hope so. Yeah. And, sitting immediately to my left is Seth Wiseman, who's from the 14th Floor. Thanks for having me. Oh, you're welcome, and I suppose we ought not to assume that everyone knows what the 14th Floor signifies in this context. Well, the 14th Floor is the 14th Floor of 233 Broadway, the grand old Dowager Woolworth Building in Lower Manhattan, nearby City Hall where so many good things happened. And, I'm not saying that we would not have had Seth Wiseman, who was the founder and president of Urban Standard Capital, a fully integrated real estate private equity firm focused on debt and equity investments across The United States. I'm not saying that we would not have Seth on this program except for the fact that he has his office in the same building as we do, but it doesn't hurt the commutation problem. Yeah. I would definitely go more than 10 floors to visit you guys. So yeah. Well, let me say, and, synchronously, we would have walked across the street to get you. Yeah. So, the person who's laughing across the way is Harrison Woodill. He doesn't ordinarily, run the sound engineering department of this organization, but he has proven that he can do anything. So, you know, why not, Harrison? Welcome. Yeah. So, Evan, before we get started into Seth's line of work, tell me if I wasn't correct in my forecast that, that the next four years, I said I said this out loud. November, I said the next four years are going to be good copy. Am I right? Am I or am I wrong? You're wrong. It's great copy. Yeah. It's scarcely started. The inauguration was just, as we're recording, a little over a week ago, and we've already gotten quite a lot of stories. Yes. So we wrote about this week, ladies and gentlemen. I hope that that many of you, are subscribers to this publication. And, those of you not I'll just I'll just give you a faintest little hint of what we're so the pair the issue of grass dated, January 31 leaves with, analysis and a contemplation of the significance of the Donald Trump rug pull of Friday, January 17. That that was the day of the issuance of the, of the dollar sign Trump, this Trump, meme coin, which, at one point, went soon after its launch, went to, was it, like, 30 or $40,000,000,000 notional market cap? I think it actually went to 60. Like, when you look at the market cap on, like, coinmarketcap.com, it'll actually show a lower number than the total dilution. That's because they only show the market cap for the free float, but Trump owns 80% of the the market cap that …

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  • Urban Standard Capital earns 12% coupons at 60% loan-to-value without requiring 10-30% deposit relationships that banks now demand, providing certainty of execution while banks struggle with deposit flight to money markets and larger institutions for safety.

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