All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live
Episode
67 min
Read time
3 min
Topics
Investing, Fundraising & VC, Leadership
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓MGM Hidden Asset Valuation: MGM trades near Barry Diller's $48 takeover bid, but the sum-of-parts analysis suggests $100–$150 per share. Vegas assets plus China equal roughly $60, Japan's Osaka casino license (opening 2030, estimated $2B EBITDA, 40% MGM ownership) adds ~$50, and a potential Dubai gambling legalization adds another $40–$50. Historically, markets begin pricing casino openings approximately three years before launch, placing now as the optimal entry window.
- ✓Power Demand Cycle Timing: US power demand is entering a multi-decade expansion cycle driven by AI data centers, which function identically to oil refineries — electricity in, intelligence out. The PJM grid alone requires 106 gigawatts of new capacity within ten years. Existing nuclear and gas assets trading below replacement cost (Talon at $25B enterprise value versus $45B replacement cost) represent a Sam Zell-style buy-below-replacement-cost opportunity with more than a double just to reach replacement value.
- ✓Talon Energy Free Cash Flow Path: Talon Energy generates approximately $50 per share in annual free cash flow at current contracted rates against a high-$300 stock price — roughly 7x free cash flow versus 15x for comparable infrastructure assets. Signing additional data center power purchase agreements pushes earnings to $70/share; adding 4 gigawatts of new capacity construction could reach $100+ per share annually, making the stock a potential 3x–4x from current levels.
- ✓Radiopharmaceutical Moat in Biotech: Actus Oncology ($500M enterprise value, $1B market cap) uses mini-protein delivery of radioactive actinium payloads targeting cancer cells within a 100-micron blast radius. The actinium supply chain depends on US Cold War nuclear waste, making Chinese replication structurally difficult. Pharma M&A in radiotherapy exceeded $15B recently, with Eli Lilly backstopping Actus's $300M IPO. Initial clinical data for two lead programs arrives in Q1 2027, with a potential 10x valuation if either program succeeds.
- ✓GeoNet Decentralized Network Economics: GeoNet operates 22,000 RTK base stations across 150 countries — twice the combined size of Trimble, Hexagon, and Topcon built over 30 years — by paying hobbyists in Geo tokens to host $300 hardware on rooftops. At $150M fully diluted market cap with $11M annualized revenue growing 3x year-over-year, the network returns 80% of revenue via open-market token buybacks. Customers including DJI, John Deere, and TomTom typically triple their annual spend from year one to year two.
What It Covers
Four fund managers pitch their top investment ideas at an All-In-hosted Ira Sohn-style competition. Pitches cover MGM Resorts (hidden casino assets in Japan and Dubai), Talon Energy (nuclear and gas power infrastructure), Actus Oncology (radiopharmaceutical cancer treatment), and GeoNet (decentralized RTK precision location network). Audience votes Talon first; besties rank MGM first.
Key Questions Answered
- •MGM Hidden Asset Valuation: MGM trades near Barry Diller's $48 takeover bid, but the sum-of-parts analysis suggests $100–$150 per share. Vegas assets plus China equal roughly $60, Japan's Osaka casino license (opening 2030, estimated $2B EBITDA, 40% MGM ownership) adds ~$50, and a potential Dubai gambling legalization adds another $40–$50. Historically, markets begin pricing casino openings approximately three years before launch, placing now as the optimal entry window.
- •Power Demand Cycle Timing: US power demand is entering a multi-decade expansion cycle driven by AI data centers, which function identically to oil refineries — electricity in, intelligence out. The PJM grid alone requires 106 gigawatts of new capacity within ten years. Existing nuclear and gas assets trading below replacement cost (Talon at $25B enterprise value versus $45B replacement cost) represent a Sam Zell-style buy-below-replacement-cost opportunity with more than a double just to reach replacement value.
- •Talon Energy Free Cash Flow Path: Talon Energy generates approximately $50 per share in annual free cash flow at current contracted rates against a high-$300 stock price — roughly 7x free cash flow versus 15x for comparable infrastructure assets. Signing additional data center power purchase agreements pushes earnings to $70/share; adding 4 gigawatts of new capacity construction could reach $100+ per share annually, making the stock a potential 3x–4x from current levels.
- •Radiopharmaceutical Moat in Biotech: Actus Oncology ($500M enterprise value, $1B market cap) uses mini-protein delivery of radioactive actinium payloads targeting cancer cells within a 100-micron blast radius. The actinium supply chain depends on US Cold War nuclear waste, making Chinese replication structurally difficult. Pharma M&A in radiotherapy exceeded $15B recently, with Eli Lilly backstopping Actus's $300M IPO. Initial clinical data for two lead programs arrives in Q1 2027, with a potential 10x valuation if either program succeeds.
- •GeoNet Decentralized Network Economics: GeoNet operates 22,000 RTK base stations across 150 countries — twice the combined size of Trimble, Hexagon, and Topcon built over 30 years — by paying hobbyists in Geo tokens to host $300 hardware on rooftops. At $150M fully diluted market cap with $11M annualized revenue growing 3x year-over-year, the network returns 80% of revenue via open-market token buybacks. Customers including DJI, John Deere, and TomTom typically triple their annual spend from year one to year two.
- •Biotech Platform Valuation Framework: Early-stage biotech companies with platform technologies — delivery mechanisms or targeting approaches applicable across multiple tumor types — can reach $10B+ valuations if even one program reaches market. Actus targets Nectin-4 (bladder cancer) and B7-H3 (expressed across prostate, colorectal, and lung tumors). Triangulation valuation rather than risk-adjusted NPV discounting is the practical approach for pre-revenue biotech, since standard DCF models collapse to near-zero for early clinical assets.
Notable Moment
During the live pitch, Actus Oncology's stock rose 6% in real time as audience members purchased shares while the presenter was still on stage. The host had to ask attendees to stop buying immediately so that others in the room could also accumulate positions at reasonable prices.
Episode Transcript
Maybe you could tell us a little bit about how you selected, our presenters and your vision for this. I mean, for any of you guys who've been involved in Ira Sohn, this is a gentleman that passed away from cancer far too young, and his family created this thing called the Sone Foundation, and they would host this event. And it started in Lincoln Center. And they would ask these managers, and so at the time I was like a young venture investor, and I got this invite and I showed up in New York at Lincoln Center in 2015, and I said Amazon's gonna be a trillion dollar company. And I was laughed out of the room. David Einhorn, who's a friend of mine, but who was totally wrong, said I know trillion dollar companies. This is not a trillion dollar company. Wrong. It turned out to be a great bet. I went back. I did Tesla in 2016. We picked the converts. And then in 2017, I was like, alright. This is my this is this is it. This is my magnum opus. And I said AI is the future and then I picked box. I was like, if I had just picked Nvidia, I would have been an Ira Legend. Legend that I could have retired. Well Anyway, so we wanted to recreate Ira's own and start to get these great managers who are making great picks, making a ton of money for their LPs. They don't get the distribution, and so it's just a chance to, like, get to know some of these names. You don't have to see them on CNBC. You'll see them here more and more often, and we can just get to opine. Roll the video. Yeah. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the best ideas pitch. Let's meet our contestants. Anyone should be able to trade any asset anywhere in the world, anytime twenty four seven with just an Internet connection and a phone in their pocket. We're building a new financial system from the ground up here. People are gonna wanna own equities, and it's gonna be fun in the next couple of years. Companies are gonna innovate and create products and applications, and that's where hopefully long short managers like us can make a boatload of money. My fund EcoR1 Capital, which is based in San Francisco, thinks of investing in biotech in a slightly different way. We're looking for unfollowed, unloved, misunderstood biotech companies. It's an amazing moment in time for those types of companies. There has been a structural and permanent perception shift where both sides of the aisle are gonna be leaning into nuclear in a big way. I'm massively optimistic. You know, all of this leads me to just be maximum risk on. And thanks to the besties for having me. And this is obviously a fabulous event you guys have put on. I'm happy to be here. For those who don't know me, I …
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