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OpenAI & Tech· Tier C · not scored· not scored

Jason predicts hardware costs will drop 50% every two years while power/capability doubles every two years.

“it'll go down 50% every two years in terms of cost, and the power will go up double every two years”

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Our resolution criterion

disputable

Hardware cost per FLOP and performance metrics measured against baseline; 50% cost reduction and 2x performance improvement verified over 24-month periods.

Target: Sep 15, 2028Dispute this

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