“I do think that within a year or two, AI will be better than humans at forecasting. Well, let's pin you down, though. Is it gonna be better than humans in one year or two? I think it's actually gonna be one year, three months, and six days.”
→ Read the source episode
AI systems demonstrate superior forecasting accuracy compared to the best human forecasters on a standardized benchmark or competition.
Casey Newton predicts that AI data centers will continue to be built in red states rather than blue states due to regulatory favorability.
Kevin reports that Bernie Sanders will introduce a bill for a moratorium on AI data centers.
Casey predicts the Pentagon's pressure campaign against Anthropic will not succeed in forcing them to sign the all-lawful-uses contract.
Casey Newton predicts that by end of 2026, age 16 will become the global norm for minimum age to access social media accounts.
Kevin Roose reports that Defense Secretary Hegseth gave Anthropic a deadline of 5:01 PM on Friday, February 27, 2026 to agree to unrestricted military use of Claude or face retaliation.
An unnamed AI company executive predicts that within one year (from February 2026), software engineering will be fully automated.
Summaries are ours; the quote is a verbatim transcript excerpt. Our resolution criteria are editorial and disputable. How this works.