Kevin Rudd estimates a 50-50 chance that Taiwan's Democratic Progress Party will win reelection in January 2028.
“if the existing, Democratic Progress Party, which is anathema to Xi Jinping, gets reelected, It'll be for its fourth term, and it has run consistently on a, shall we say, independence leaning platform. Will they get reelected in January 28? I don't know, but I think it's a fifty fifty possibility.”
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Our resolution criterion
disputableTaiwan's Democratic Progress Party wins or loses the presidential election in January 2028.
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