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OpenScience· Tier C · not scored· not scored

Speaker predicts the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will stop functioning between now and 2095, causing European temperatures to fall by 10 degrees Celsius.

Reported on The Diary of a CEO · The Diary of a CEO · Aug 20, 2026

“The most recent estimates is that's gonna stop functioning sometime between last year, because hasn't it's happened, and 2095. When that happens, the temperature on Europe will fall, roughly speaking, by three degrees per decade for three decades.”

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Our resolution criterion

disputable

Observable cessation of AMOC function and corresponding 10-degree Celsius temperature decline in Europe measured by climate monitoring systems.

Target: Dec 31, 2095Dispute this

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