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The growing movement to secede from Illinois and become the 51st state

28 min episode · 2 min read
·
Connor Towne O'neil

Episode

28 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Productivity, Sales & Revenue, Product & Tech Trends

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Constitutional pathway: Article IV of the U.S. Constitution requires two approvals to create a new state — consent from Congress and from the existing state legislature. For New Illinois, the state legislature approval is the critical barrier, since the very body they oppose must authorize their departure, creating a structural paradox at the movement's core.
  • Referendum momentum: Organizer Loretta Nuland has placed a non-binding separation question on ballots in 33 Illinois counties, winning every single vote. Results show strong margins — Fayette County at 79%, Clay County at 80%, Edgar County at 83% — including Madison County with 250,000 residents, which shifted broader public perception of the movement's legitimacy.
  • Fiscal dependency tension: A key counterargument to secession is economic: rural downstate counties receive approximately $2.00 in state services for every $1.00 paid in taxes, while Cook County residents receive roughly $0.90 back per dollar. Secession supporters counter they would generate replacement revenue through lower taxes, deregulation, and coal industry revitalization.
  • Secession as political leverage: University of Illinois historian Kenneth Owen identifies a productive use case for secession movements — even failed ones. When conventional political channels stall, the credible threat of secession forces dialogue. Illinois Democrat LaShawn Ford, who attended a 2023 New Illinois conference, represents this dynamic, opposing the split while engaging directly with rural grievances.
  • Two hallmarks of viable secession movements: Owen identifies distinct cultural identity separate from the target entity, and clear political stakes defining what leaving would gain. New Illinois demonstrates both — downstate residents trace roots to 19th-century Kentucky and Tennessee settlers, and articulate specific policy goals around taxes, gun laws, immigration enforcement, and pension debt reduction.

What It Covers

NPR reporter Connor Towne O'Neil investigates the New Illinois movement, where rural downstate counties seek to secede from Illinois and form a 51st state, driven by frustration over Chicago's political dominance, high taxes, and a Democratic supermajority that leaves conservative rural voters without meaningful legislative power.

Key Questions Answered

  • Constitutional pathway: Article IV of the U.S. Constitution requires two approvals to create a new state — consent from Congress and from the existing state legislature. For New Illinois, the state legislature approval is the critical barrier, since the very body they oppose must authorize their departure, creating a structural paradox at the movement's core.
  • Referendum momentum: Organizer Loretta Nuland has placed a non-binding separation question on ballots in 33 Illinois counties, winning every single vote. Results show strong margins — Fayette County at 79%, Clay County at 80%, Edgar County at 83% — including Madison County with 250,000 residents, which shifted broader public perception of the movement's legitimacy.
  • Fiscal dependency tension: A key counterargument to secession is economic: rural downstate counties receive approximately $2.00 in state services for every $1.00 paid in taxes, while Cook County residents receive roughly $0.90 back per dollar. Secession supporters counter they would generate replacement revenue through lower taxes, deregulation, and coal industry revitalization.
  • Secession as political leverage: University of Illinois historian Kenneth Owen identifies a productive use case for secession movements — even failed ones. When conventional political channels stall, the credible threat of secession forces dialogue. Illinois Democrat LaShawn Ford, who attended a 2023 New Illinois conference, represents this dynamic, opposing the split while engaging directly with rural grievances.
  • Two hallmarks of viable secession movements: Owen identifies distinct cultural identity separate from the target entity, and clear political stakes defining what leaving would gain. New Illinois demonstrates both — downstate residents trace roots to 19th-century Kentucky and Tennessee settlers, and articulate specific policy goals around taxes, gun laws, immigration enforcement, and pension debt reduction.

Notable Moment

One New Illinois member involved in drafting the proposed state's constitution stated that if both the Illinois legislature and Congress reject the separation bid, he estimates better than a 50% probability of armed conflict, and described scenarios involving surrounding the state capitol building in Springfield.

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