What are the key takeaways from this Up First (NPR) episode?

Key insights include: **Prediction Market Surveillance:** Kalshi uses FEC disclosure data to block campaign staffers from betting on their own races, successfully stopping dozens of insider trades. However, the system misses volunteers, pollsters, lawyers, and subcontractors — leaving significant gaps that former FEC commissioners confirm undermine the program's effectiveness.; **Regulatory Vacuum:** The CFTC under Trump has largely stepped back from overseeing prediction markets, leaving self-policing to companies like Kalshi and Polymarket. Despite 21 pieces of legislation introduced in the current year alone, none have gained momentum, creating legal uncertainty that makes insider trading easier to pursue without consequence.; **Special Education Workaround:** The Department of Education is moving special education staff to HHS while keeping oversight leader Kelly Rogers at the department — a structure advocates call a legal workaround. Families and disability advocates report increased confusion about accountability, contact points, and equitable service delivery under the divided arrangement.

What did Election Betting discuss on Up First (NPR)?

NPR's Up First covers three topics: election prediction markets enabling insider trading by campaign staffers, the Trump administration's restructuring of special education oversight, and contested CDC guidance on discarding leftover breast milk after two hours. Key topics include: **Prediction Market Surveillance:** Kalshi uses FEC disclosure data to block campaign staffers from betting on their own races, successfully stopping dozens of insider trades. However, the system misses volunteers, pollsters, lawyers, and subcontractors — leaving significant gaps that former FEC commissioners confirm undermine the program's effectiveness.; **Regulatory Vacuum:** The CFTC under Trump has largely stepped back from overseeing prediction markets, leaving self-policing to companies like Kalshi and Polymarket. Despite 21 pieces of legislation introduced in the current year alone, none have gained momentum, creating legal uncertainty that makes insider trading easier to pursue without consequence..

How long is this episode of Up First (NPR)?

This episode is 13 minutes long. SignalCast provides an AI-generated summary so you can get the key insights in about 3 minutes.

Up First (NPR)

Election Betting on Prediction Markets, Special Education, Breastmilk Storage

July 11, 2026

13 min episode · 2 min read

Election Betting

Episode

13 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Investing, Sales & Revenue, Science & Discovery

AI-Generated Summary

Published Jul 11, 2026

Key Takeaways

✓Prediction Market Surveillance: Kalshi uses FEC disclosure data to block campaign staffers from betting on their own races, successfully stopping dozens of insider trades. However, the system misses volunteers, pollsters, lawyers, and subcontractors — leaving significant gaps that former FEC commissioners confirm undermine the program's effectiveness.
✓Regulatory Vacuum: The CFTC under Trump has largely stepped back from overseeing prediction markets, leaving self-policing to companies like Kalshi and Polymarket. Despite 21 pieces of legislation introduced in the current year alone, none have gained momentum, creating legal uncertainty that makes insider trading easier to pursue without consequence.
✓Special Education Workaround: The Department of Education is moving special education staff to HHS while keeping oversight leader Kelly Rogers at the department — a structure advocates call a legal workaround. Families and disability advocates report increased confusion about accountability, contact points, and equitable service delivery under the divided arrangement.
✓Breast Milk Storage Evidence: CDC guidelines recommend discarding leftover bottle breast milk after two hours due to bacterial growth risk. A small unpublished German study of 17 infants found no significant bacterial growth up to eight hours post-feeding, but researchers caution the finding is preliminary and insufficient to override conservative safety guidelines.

What It Covers

NPR's Up First covers three topics: election prediction markets enabling insider trading by campaign staffers, the Trump administration's restructuring of special education oversight, and contested CDC guidance on discarding leftover breast milk after two hours.

Key Questions Answered

•Prediction Market Surveillance: Kalshi uses FEC disclosure data to block campaign staffers from betting on their own races, successfully stopping dozens of insider trades. However, the system misses volunteers, pollsters, lawyers, and subcontractors — leaving significant gaps that former FEC commissioners confirm undermine the program's effectiveness.
•Regulatory Vacuum: The CFTC under Trump has largely stepped back from overseeing prediction markets, leaving self-policing to companies like Kalshi and Polymarket. Despite 21 pieces of legislation introduced in the current year alone, none have gained momentum, creating legal uncertainty that makes insider trading easier to pursue without consequence.
•Special Education Workaround: The Department of Education is moving special education staff to HHS while keeping oversight leader Kelly Rogers at the department — a structure advocates call a legal workaround. Families and disability advocates report increased confusion about accountability, contact points, and equitable service delivery under the divided arrangement.
•Breast Milk Storage Evidence: CDC guidelines recommend discarding leftover bottle breast milk after two hours due to bacterial growth risk. A small unpublished German study of 17 infants found no significant bacterial growth up to eight hours post-feeding, but researchers caution the finding is preliminary and insufficient to override conservative safety guidelines.

Notable Moment

A German medical school study found breast milk showed minimal bacterial growth up to eight hours after feeding — directly contradicting longstanding CDC two-hour discard guidance — yet researchers stress the 17-infant sample size makes it far too preliminary to act on.

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Episode Transcript

Prediction markets take plenty of bets on the outcome of elections. Some betters might be cheating. Campaign staffers are awfully tempted to turn their insider knowledge into money. I'm Scott Simon. I'm Ayesha Rasco, and this is Up First from NPR News. Oh, Kalshi and other prediction markets try to police themselves and keep the government out of their business. And as the Trump administration dismantles the Department of Education, people with disabilities and their families ask what will happen to special education. And finally, mothers have been told for years to throw out any breast milk left over in a bottle after feeding. Some influencers disagree. So stay with us. We have the news you need to start your weekend. This message comes from Capital One with the VentureX card. Earn unlimited double miles, a $300 annual Capital One travel credit, and access to airport lounges. Capital One. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Details at capital1.com. This message comes from Dell Technologies. Get long lasting battery life on the Dell XPS laptop powered by series three Intel Core. Now from $699 with exclusive student pricing from $599. Visit dell.com/deals. This week on Wait Wait Don't Tell Me, we talked to legendary musician Jason Narducci about being in a punk band when he was just 11 years old. We broke up when I was 12. And, yeah, I just felt like I needed to go through puberty without band drama. Don't miss our full conversation and the rest of our games. Listen to the Wait Wait Don't Tell Me podcast in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. Americans have bet more than $1,000,000,000 on elections so far. Some of those traders are using insider information. The largest prediction market, Cauchy, says it's trying to stop political insiders from profiting with a new program. NPR's Luke Garrett joins us. Luke, thanks for being with us. Good morning. Thanks for having me. Few months back, you reported that some campaign staffers made thousands of dollars in insider trades. So what do we know? For one, we know that dozens of campaign staffers are still trying to bet on their own candidates. And remember, this is during an active midterm election year. These are people who are on campaign payrolls and are trying to profit on their own races. We know this because Calsheet has a new surveillance program that uses federal election commission data to track these staffers. So far, the prediction market says it has successfully blocked dozens of campaign staffers from making these potential insider trades. How does the program work? So, basically, Kalshi finds the names of staffers listed in these FEC disclosures, you know, and then tracks them on their own prediction market. Here's how the company's head of enforcement and legal counsel, Robert Denault, explained it. If we're able to identify a potential match, we have markets that are associated with each of the campaigns that are flagged, and those individuals would be …

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Kalshi
“Kalshi uses FEC disclosure data to block campaign staffers from betting on their own races, successfully stopping dozens of insider trades.”
Polymarket
“The CFTC under Trump has largely stepped back from overseeing prediction markets, leaving self-policing to companies like Kalshi and Polymarket.”