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Planet Money

Before Kalshi and Polymarket there was the Iowa Electronic Markets

22 min episode · 2 min read
·
Coleman Strumpf

Episode

22 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Investing, Fundraising & VC, Leadership

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Prediction market accuracy: The Iowa Electronic Markets predicted the 1988 presidential popular vote within 0.2 percentage points on election eve, outperforming Gallup, Harris, and CBS/New York Times polls. Between 1988 and 2004, the market beat traditional polls 74% of the time, establishing a measurable benchmark for market-based forecasting over survey-based methods.
  • Regulatory workaround model: The CFTC issued the Iowa Electronic Markets a "no action letter" permitting operation under three strict constraints: a $500 maximum investment per participant, no paid advertising, and nonprofit status. This permission-slip framework remains the template modern prediction market operators reference when navigating U.S. commodity futures regulation today.
  • Historical election betting depth: Organized election betting in the U.S. dates to George Washington's era, with markets also covering events like Stamp Act duration. By the early 20th century, the Curb Exchange outside the New York Stock Exchange hosted elite traders — including Tammany Hall figures and bankers — publicly betting on candidates as a signal of political commitment.
  • Political hedging behavior: Party machine leaders at the Curb Exchange publicly backed their candidates while privately placing opposing bets to cancel financial exposure. This historical behavior mirrors modern corporate hedging: if a candidate's policy threatens your business, buying contracts on their victory offsets potential losses, turning prediction markets into a practical risk-management instrument.
  • Why election markets disappeared: Presidential prediction markets went dormant sometime in the 1940s for two reasons: newspapers grew more comfortable publishing Gallup-style scientific polls after the 1930s, and thoroughbred horse racing offered 12 races per night versus a handful of elections per year, drawing away the trader base seeking frequent forecasting opportunities.

What It Covers

Planet Money shares a ThruLine history of prediction markets, tracing their origins from 19th-century New York street-corner election betting through the 1988 founding of the Iowa Electronic Markets by three University of Iowa economists, and explaining why modern platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket follow the same core trading rules established 37 years ago.

Key Questions Answered

  • Prediction market accuracy: The Iowa Electronic Markets predicted the 1988 presidential popular vote within 0.2 percentage points on election eve, outperforming Gallup, Harris, and CBS/New York Times polls. Between 1988 and 2004, the market beat traditional polls 74% of the time, establishing a measurable benchmark for market-based forecasting over survey-based methods.
  • Regulatory workaround model: The CFTC issued the Iowa Electronic Markets a "no action letter" permitting operation under three strict constraints: a $500 maximum investment per participant, no paid advertising, and nonprofit status. This permission-slip framework remains the template modern prediction market operators reference when navigating U.S. commodity futures regulation today.
  • Historical election betting depth: Organized election betting in the U.S. dates to George Washington's era, with markets also covering events like Stamp Act duration. By the early 20th century, the Curb Exchange outside the New York Stock Exchange hosted elite traders — including Tammany Hall figures and bankers — publicly betting on candidates as a signal of political commitment.
  • Political hedging behavior: Party machine leaders at the Curb Exchange publicly backed their candidates while privately placing opposing bets to cancel financial exposure. This historical behavior mirrors modern corporate hedging: if a candidate's policy threatens your business, buying contracts on their victory offsets potential losses, turning prediction markets into a practical risk-management instrument.
  • Why election markets disappeared: Presidential prediction markets went dormant sometime in the 1940s for two reasons: newspapers grew more comfortable publishing Gallup-style scientific polls after the 1930s, and thoroughbred horse racing offered 12 races per night versus a handful of elections per year, drawing away the trader base seeking frequent forecasting opportunities.

Notable Moment

After the Iowa Electronic Markets proved successful, the founders received calls from investors offering hundreds of thousands of dollars — far above the $500 cap — and separate offers to relocate offshore to the Cayman Islands to operate without restrictions. The founders declined both, a decision one later described with visible regret when comparing their scale to Polymarket's.

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Episode Transcript

This message comes from Edward Jones, where they believe rich is about taking care of what gives your life meaning. That's why your financial advisor personalizes your plan to help you preserve your progress and create something that lasts. Let's find your rich. Edward Jones, member SIPC. Hey, guys. We have an episode for you. We always do. But first, we have a question. A lot has happened in the past five or so years, and we wanna know how you all are holding up. Did you make any big decisions that are maybe backfiring now? Like, did you move to Montana during the pandemic, and now your work wants you back in the office in Seattle? What's your plan? Or is your money in the stock market right now, and you're just, like, watching it grow, grow, grow, grow? What are you spending it on? Yeah. We wanna check-in with our whole Planet Money community. Does it feel like things cost a lot more these days? Groceries, going on dates, doing something fun for your family? Have you found any great life hacks to help you get by or maybe even thrive in this economy? Yeah. We wanna hear from you, and maybe we'll call you up for a future show about how things feel right now. Send us an email about how the economy is affecting you and your life at planetmoney@npr.org, and maybe we'll call you up to chat. That email, planetmoney@npr.org. Alright. Erica, you have a show to start. This is Planet Money from NPR. Recently, I heard a story that changed how I think about prediction markets. One moment in the story in particular. It was part of the history of where prediction markets came from, which as you may have heard goes back hundreds of years in some form, but also in another form, prediction markets as we know them today were cooked up by economists trying to test some theories on markets. And in this story of the evolution of prediction markets, there's a moment when an economic historian studying the long ago early roots of prediction markets realizes there's already a well functioning design of a prediction market at the racetrack. Now, of course, many of you will say, yeah. Obviously, gambling is gambling, of course. But the part I didn't quite know is that prediction markets for elections were popular and robust until they mysteriously faded away. And one theory is horse racing took over. You know, because instead of an election every year or whatever, you can have a dozen races a week. This all comes from this fascinating history of the economic origins of prediction markets. The economists who cooked up the proto prediction markets. The political machines that basically had to financially bet on their candidates hundreds of years ago and even farther back than that. So today, we're going to share an excerpt of this story for you. It comes from our friends at ThruLine, NPR's excellent …

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  • Before Kalshi and Polymarket there was the Iowa Electronic Markets
  • by University of Iowa

    The Iowa Electronic Markets predicted the 1988 presidential popular vote within 0.2 percentage points on election eve, outperforming Gallup, Harris, and CBS/New York Times polls.
  • Before Kalshi and Polymarket there was the Iowa Electronic Markets

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