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The Intelligence (Economist)

Delhi-novela: Putin and Modi rekindle bromance

20 min episode · 2 min read
·
Kira Huyu,Alex Hearn

Episode

20 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Relationships, Fundraising & VC, Economics & Policy

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Defense procurement shift: Russia's share of India's defense imports dropped from 70% a decade ago to 35% today, as India diversifies to America, France, and Israel for modern equipment, prompting Russia to offer full tech transfer on stealth fighters.
  • Oil trade economics: India increased Russian crude imports from 2% pre-war to 40% of total oil imports, saving $13 billion in two years through discounted prices, though US and European sanctions now force India to end this arrangement.
  • Strategic leverage tactics: Modi uses public displays of warmth with Putin, including rallies and posters across Delhi, to signal to Trump that India maintains powerful alternative partnerships and will not accept being dictated who to befriend or trade with.
  • Trade relationship reality: Beyond oil and weapons, India-Russia trade totals only $10 billion, less than one-tenth of India-America trade, revealing limited economic interdependence despite political posturing and historic ties dating to the Cold War era.

What It Covers

Vladimir Putin visits India for the first time since invading Ukraine, strengthening ties with Modi as Trump's tariffs push India away from America and back toward its Cold War ally Russia.

Key Questions Answered

  • Defense procurement shift: Russia's share of India's defense imports dropped from 70% a decade ago to 35% today, as India diversifies to America, France, and Israel for modern equipment, prompting Russia to offer full tech transfer on stealth fighters.
  • Oil trade economics: India increased Russian crude imports from 2% pre-war to 40% of total oil imports, saving $13 billion in two years through discounted prices, though US and European sanctions now force India to end this arrangement.
  • Strategic leverage tactics: Modi uses public displays of warmth with Putin, including rallies and posters across Delhi, to signal to Trump that India maintains powerful alternative partnerships and will not accept being dictated who to befriend or trade with.
  • Trade relationship reality: Beyond oil and weapons, India-Russia trade totals only $10 billion, less than one-tenth of India-America trade, revealing limited economic interdependence despite political posturing and historic ties dating to the Cold War era.

Notable Moment

Indian officials speculate about reopening discounted Russian oil purchases through intermediaries or waiting for diplomatic opportunities like a US trade deal, showing how Trump's aggressive tariffs paradoxically strengthen the India-Russia relationship he opposes.

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Episode Transcript

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