Can the Israel-Hamas Deal Hold?

What It Covers

Rob Malley and Hussein Agha analyze the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal brokered by Trump, examining its fragile phase-one implementation, the uncertain phase-two prospects, Palestinian leadership vacuum, and regional power shifts following two years of devastating war.

Key Questions Answered

• •Deal Structure Limitations: The ceasefire achieves hostage release and fighting cessation but lacks enforcement mechanisms, clear timetables, or arbitration processes for violations. Phase two envisions Hamas disarmament and international stabilization forces, yet neither Israel nor Hamas wants these outcomes, making collapse likely beyond initial prisoner exchanges.
• •Hamas Survival Strategy: Despite Israeli objectives to destroy Hamas completely, the organization remains the only entity capable of maintaining order in Gaza. Trump himself authorized Hamas to police Gaza streets because no alternative Palestinian force exists, demonstrating that relative power matters more than absolute strength in post-conflict governance.
• •Palestinian Authority Dysfunction: The PA functions as Israel's subcontractor, financing the occupation through fundraising, providing security coordination, and maintaining dependence on Israeli approval for survival. This arrangement represents an unprecedented national liberation movement structure where the occupied entity serves the occupier's interests while lacking independent agency or popular legitimacy.
• •Israeli Security Doctrine Collapse: October 7 shattered three core Israeli military principles: preventing war on home territory, ensuring short conflicts, and achieving decisive victories. None occurred, exposing unprecedented vulnerability despite tactical military successes against Hezbollah and Iran, forcing strategic reassessment of force-based security approaches.
• •Generational Political Shift: Younger Americans across both parties show declining support for Israel, with MAGA Republicans questioning aid commitments through America-first ideology and young Democrats supporting pro-Palestinian candidates like Zoran Mamdani. This bipartisan demographic change threatens Israel's long-term political capital in its most critical ally relationship.