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The Daily (NYT)

Who’s Really Running Iran?

35 min episode · 2 min read
·
Farnaz Fazeehi

Episode

35 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Leadership, Sales & Revenue, Psychology & Behavior

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Power structure shift: Iran's Revolutionary Guards, known as Sepah, have displaced clerical authority as the dominant decision-making force. Every source Fassihi interviewed named the Guards — not the Ayatollah — as running the country. This marks a historic transition from a 47-year Islamic theocracy toward a military dictatorship with a cleric as figurehead.
  • Supreme Leader's incapacitation: Moshtaba Khamenei sustained severe injuries in airstrikes — a possible leg amputation, arm surgery, and extensive facial burns preventing speech. He communicates via handwritten letters carried by human courier chains, making real-time governance impossible and forcing him to delegate authority to Guards generals he has trusted since adolescence.
  • Guards' pragmatic deal calculus: Unlike ideologically driven clerics, Guards generals are motivated by power and economic survival, not religious doctrine. They have proposed, for the first time in 47 years, allowing U.S. oil and shipping companies to invest in Iran's reconstruction — directly appealing to Trump's deal-making instincts to secure sanctions relief and access to frozen assets.
  • Strait of Hormuz as leverage: Iran's leadership now views the Strait of Hormuz as a controllable economic weapon. Beyond military blockade, they are calculating a tolling system on passing ships, projecting it could generate more revenue than oil exports. Insurance market pressure alone — without physical action — is sufficient to disrupt global shipping and energy supply chains.
  • Face-saving as the core negotiating obstacle: Both sides require a deal framed as a victory. Iran refuses to appear as though war forced concessions it previously rejected. Trump needs to demonstrate outcomes exceeding Obama's 2015 nuclear agreement. Uranium enrichment levels, stockpile disposal, and suspension versus full shutdown remain unresolved, with optics driving the deadlock as much as substance.

What It Covers

NYT correspondent Farnaz Fassihi reports on a fundamental power shift inside Iran, where Revolutionary Guards generals — not Supreme Leader Moshtaba Khamenei — now control decision-making. Based on 22 interviews with senior Iranian officials and insiders, the episode maps who holds power and what they want from U.S. negotiations.

Key Questions Answered

  • Power structure shift: Iran's Revolutionary Guards, known as Sepah, have displaced clerical authority as the dominant decision-making force. Every source Fassihi interviewed named the Guards — not the Ayatollah — as running the country. This marks a historic transition from a 47-year Islamic theocracy toward a military dictatorship with a cleric as figurehead.
  • Supreme Leader's incapacitation: Moshtaba Khamenei sustained severe injuries in airstrikes — a possible leg amputation, arm surgery, and extensive facial burns preventing speech. He communicates via handwritten letters carried by human courier chains, making real-time governance impossible and forcing him to delegate authority to Guards generals he has trusted since adolescence.
  • Guards' pragmatic deal calculus: Unlike ideologically driven clerics, Guards generals are motivated by power and economic survival, not religious doctrine. They have proposed, for the first time in 47 years, allowing U.S. oil and shipping companies to invest in Iran's reconstruction — directly appealing to Trump's deal-making instincts to secure sanctions relief and access to frozen assets.
  • Strait of Hormuz as leverage: Iran's leadership now views the Strait of Hormuz as a controllable economic weapon. Beyond military blockade, they are calculating a tolling system on passing ships, projecting it could generate more revenue than oil exports. Insurance market pressure alone — without physical action — is sufficient to disrupt global shipping and energy supply chains.
  • Face-saving as the core negotiating obstacle: Both sides require a deal framed as a victory. Iran refuses to appear as though war forced concessions it previously rejected. Trump needs to demonstrate outcomes exceeding Obama's 2015 nuclear agreement. Uranium enrichment levels, stockpile disposal, and suspension versus full shutdown remain unresolved, with optics driving the deadlock as much as substance.

Notable Moment

Fassihi reveals that the same Revolutionary Guards commanders who spent decades enforcing anti-American ideology — and whose former supreme leader explicitly banned direct U.S. engagement — were sitting across a negotiating table from Vice President JD Vance within five weeks of the war's outbreak.

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Episode Transcript

This message is brought to you by Apple Card. Spring always feels like a reset. Clearing things out, simplifying what you don't need, Apple Card is built with that same idea in mind. No annual fee, no late fees, and no foreign transaction fees. No fees, period. Get started and apply in the Wallet app on your iPhone today, subject to credit approval. Variable APRs for Apple Card range from 17.49% to 27.74% based on creditworthiness. Rates as of 01/01/2026. Existing customers can view their variable APR in the Wallet app or at card.apple.com. Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA. Salt Lake City branch. Terms and more at applecard.com. From the New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitrofe. This is The Daily. It was a chaotic weekend of news out of Washington. There was a shooting at an event where president Trump and top cabinet officials were gathered, which we're following and we'll update on later in the show. And also, Trump abruptly and dramatically called off the latest round of peace talks with Iran at the very last minute, leaving the fate of the ceasefire in limbo. One of the main reasons Trump gave was that he doesn't think Iran is sending credible negotiators to the table and says he has no idea who's actually in charge of the country. Today, my colleague, Farnaz Fazeehi, takes us inside the world of Iran's leaders and explains what her reporting reveals about what they really want. It's Monday, April 27. Farnaz, it's wonderful to have you back on the show. Thank you for having me, Natalie. So what do we know about what just happened, where we saw Trump suddenly back away from face to face negotiations with Iran? It almost seemed like over the weekend, he kinda turned the team of American negotiators around as they were basically on their way to the airport. We started this weekend thinking that Iranians and Americans were going to meet in Islamabad for a second round of negotiations. Iran's foreign minister went to Islamabad, and The US special envoy Steve Witkoff and president Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, were scheduled to also fly to Pakistan on Saturday, and everyone anticipated another round of talks. And then we started getting mixed messages. The Iranians said, oh, well, we're not meeting directly Americans, and the foreign minister left Pakistan. And president Trump abruptly announced on social media that he was canceling the talks and not sending his envoys to meet with the Iranians. And now we're in a state of limbo. There's no talks. There's a unilateral ceasefire declared by president Trump without a set deadline, and the Iranians are under a sea blockade. So the situation, I think, is very fragile. And what about the president's claim, which he made on social media over the weekend and he's made before, that the Iranian regime is in complete disarray and that he doesn't even know who's making the decisions in the country? Well, since the …

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