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The Daily (NYT)

The Iran War's Devastating Butterfly Effect

26 min episode · 2 min read
·
Peter Goodman

Episode

26 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Career Growth, Productivity, Health & Wellness

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Aid collapse scale: Global humanitarian relief funding dropped from $43 billion in 2022 to $28 billion last year and continues falling. When Russia invaded Ukraine, a $43B response prevented famine across Sudan, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, and Somalia. That same safety net no longer exists, meaning equivalent shocks now go unmitigated and populations face starvation without intervention.
  • Somalia food system fragility: Somalia imports 70% of its food and 90% of its energy. Since the Strait of Hormuz disruption, food and fuel prices have more than doubled. The World Food Programme, previously serving 2 million Somalis monthly, had funding for only 300,000 per month by late April — with that supply exhausted by end of June.
  • Healthcare infrastructure dismantled: UNICEF closed 205 health and nutrition centers across Somalia due to budget cuts. Doctors at a Mogadishu malnutrition ward — which saw case numbers double since the war began — estimate one-third of severe child malnutrition cases could have been prevented with earlier intervention at those now-shuttered community centers.
  • Cascading logistics failure: Higher diesel prices create compounding breakdowns: fishing boats stay in shallow waters reducing catch, UNICEF trucks less water to drought zones, displaced populations move to aid camps that have already closed. In Sudan, trucking companies refuse to enter famine zones fearing they will run out of fuel and become stranded mid-route.
  • Strategic cost of cutting aid: Reducing humanitarian aid increases migration pressure, strengthens militant recruitment — Al-Shabaab actively recruits in famine-affected Horn of Africa regions — and accelerates state failure. Historically, aid has functioned as foreign policy and national security infrastructure, not discretionary charity, making cuts strategically counterproductive beyond the immediate humanitarian consequences.

What It Covers

NYT correspondent Peter Goodman reports from Somalia on how the Iran war's disruption of the Strait of Hormuz — carrying one-fifth of global oil and one-third of fertilizer supplies — combines with simultaneous cuts to international humanitarian aid to push tens of millions toward famine.

Key Questions Answered

  • Aid collapse scale: Global humanitarian relief funding dropped from $43 billion in 2022 to $28 billion last year and continues falling. When Russia invaded Ukraine, a $43B response prevented famine across Sudan, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, and Somalia. That same safety net no longer exists, meaning equivalent shocks now go unmitigated and populations face starvation without intervention.
  • Somalia food system fragility: Somalia imports 70% of its food and 90% of its energy. Since the Strait of Hormuz disruption, food and fuel prices have more than doubled. The World Food Programme, previously serving 2 million Somalis monthly, had funding for only 300,000 per month by late April — with that supply exhausted by end of June.
  • Healthcare infrastructure dismantled: UNICEF closed 205 health and nutrition centers across Somalia due to budget cuts. Doctors at a Mogadishu malnutrition ward — which saw case numbers double since the war began — estimate one-third of severe child malnutrition cases could have been prevented with earlier intervention at those now-shuttered community centers.
  • Cascading logistics failure: Higher diesel prices create compounding breakdowns: fishing boats stay in shallow waters reducing catch, UNICEF trucks less water to drought zones, displaced populations move to aid camps that have already closed. In Sudan, trucking companies refuse to enter famine zones fearing they will run out of fuel and become stranded mid-route.
  • Strategic cost of cutting aid: Reducing humanitarian aid increases migration pressure, strengthens militant recruitment — Al-Shabaab actively recruits in famine-affected Horn of Africa regions — and accelerates state failure. Historically, aid has functioned as foreign policy and national security infrastructure, not discretionary charity, making cuts strategically counterproductive beyond the immediate humanitarian consequences.

Notable Moment

A World Food Programme warehouse director in Somalia walked Goodman through 13 storage tents — 12 completely empty. The single remaining tent held the last supply of malnourished children's nutrient paste, with nothing in the pipeline. When asked what happens to the population after that runs out, she turned the question back.

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Episode Transcript

I gave my brother a New York Times subscription. We exchange articles. And so having read the same article, we can discuss it. She sent me a year long subscription so I have access to all the games. The New York Times contributes to our quality time together. It enriches our relationship. It was such a a cool and thoughtful gift. We're reading the same stuff. We're making the same food. We're on the same page. Learn more about giving a New York Times subscription as a gift at nytimes.com/gift. From the New York Times, I'm Rachel Abrams, and this is The Daily. The war in Iran has had some visible consequences like skyrocketing energy costs and higher gas prices. The effects of this war are often far less obvious and much more serious for the world's most vulnerable people. Today, my colleague Peter Goodman tells us about what he learned on a recent trip to Somalia and why the system of global aid is no longer in a position to help. It's Wednesday, June 10. Peter Goodman, welcome back to The Daily. Thanks for having me. So, Peter, we're now a hundred and one days into the war with Iran, and we've talked a lot on the show about its effect on gas prices. But you cover global supply chains, which means that you've gone all over the world, you've reported on how something gets from point a to point b, and you have focused a lot on all the people who are affected in between. So for that reason, we wanted to ask you for your take on how the war has disrupted things all over the world in less visible ways. Well, first of all, the price of energy goes so far beyond putting gas in your car. Right? I mean, we've seen cooking fuel get scarce in India, in South America. We've seen The Philippines limit the hours that people can work in office buildings to limit the cost of air conditioning. We've seen helium, which is used by computer chip factories from Taiwan, get expensive and hard to secure. The ripple effects of this are almost infinite. Reminds me of the butterfly effect. A butterfly flaps its wings in one place and you see a tidal wave at another. Right. I mean, this particular butterfly is coming out of the Strait Of Hormuz, which is the conduit for something like one fifth of the world's oil supply and something like a third of major forms of fertilizer, which affects how much food that we can grow. And so the consequences of this particular flapping of wings are especially enormous. Mhmm. In addition to these kind of ripple effects, there are also significant issues of life and death. And that's what I've been focusing on. I've been looking at 60 or so countries that tend to suffer from malnutrition even in the best of times. And every time there's a shock, we have reason to worry. …

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