What We’ve Learned From 10 Days of War

What It Covers

NYT correspondent Eric Schmitt analyzes the first ten days of a US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, covering 4,000+ strikes, Iran's retaliatory strategy across 14 countries, spiking oil prices above $100 per barrel, regime resilience, and the widening regional conflict drawing in Gulf states and European nations.

Key Questions Answered

• •Military degradation vs. elimination: After 4,000+ strikes, the US-Israel campaign reduced Iranian missile fire by 90% and drone fire by 83% on day one, yet Iran retains roughly 50% of its total missile arsenal and even larger drone stockpiles. Iran continues manufacturing drones, meaning degradation is ongoing but elimination remains unachieved within this timeframe.
• •Interceptor shortage as critical vulnerability: While the US has enough missile interceptors to protect its own bases, Gulf nation allies face critical shortfalls in defensive munitions. Nations including UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain are requesting emergency resupply. Tracking interceptor availability in allied countries provides a concrete early indicator of how long this coalition can sustain defensive operations.
• •Intelligence assessment vs. stated war goals: The National Intelligence Council assessed before the conflict began that an air campaign alone could not topple Iran's government, with no modern precedent supporting air-only regime change. Understanding this gap between publicly stated objectives and classified assessments helps contextualize why Trump's demands have shifted four times in ten days.
• •Iran's Operation Madman — widening pain as leverage: Iran's deliberate strategy, internally named Operation Madman, targets civilian infrastructure across 14+ countries including airports, oil depots, hotels, and ports to maximize economic and political pressure on Washington. Tracking oil prices above $100 per barrel and Gulf airport closures serves as a measurable gauge of whether this coercion strategy is gaining traction.
• •Russia as unintended beneficiary: Russia provides targeting intelligence to Iran identifying US vessel and troop locations in the region, a practice predating this conflict but now operationally significant. Rising oil prices directly increase Russian revenue, potentially subsidizing the Ukraine war, while diverting European weapons stockpiles — particularly missile interceptors — away from Ukrainian defense toward Gulf protection.