Trump 2.0: The President’s Affordability Problem

What It Covers

New York Times polling reveals Trump's approval rating dropped from 52% at inauguration to 40% one year later, driven primarily by voter dissatisfaction with economic affordability. Young, nonwhite, and lower-income voters who shifted Republican in 2024 have reversed course, citing unmet promises on housing costs, healthcare, and middle-class accessibility as key concerns.

Key Questions Answered

• •Demographic reversal: Trump's 2024 coalition of young, nonwhite, less educated, and lower-income voters has largely dissolved within one year. His approval among these groups returned to first-term levels, suggesting the 2024 shift reflected dissatisfaction with Biden rather than permanent realignment. Only border policy remains a clear strength in polling data.
• •Affordability crisis focus: Sixty-five percent of respondents say middle-class life is out of reach for most Americans, with over 75% believing it has become harder than a generation ago. Voters prioritize big-ticket concerns like housing, healthcare, education, and childcare over monthly expenses, with only 34% approving Trump's handling of cost-of-living issues.
• •Generational divide: Only 24% of voters aged 18-29 believe they can afford the life they should, compared to 63% of those over 65. Young voters face higher costs for housing, healthcare, and education relative to wages than previous generations, while older voters already purchased these assets at lower historical prices.
• •Economic perception gap: Despite 44% of Trump defectors citing economic issues as their top concern and majorities saying his policies made life less affordable, more voters now rate the economy positively than at any point since the pandemic. This reflects gradual recovery from 2022 inflation peaks while maintaining blame toward Biden for underlying problems.
• •Political volatility ahead: Neither party holds credibility on affordability solutions. Democrats lead midterm preference by five points among registered voters, but more Americans still identify as Republican. Voters remain unmoored and open to nontraditional candidates, continuing the pattern of change elections driven by unmet economic expectations since 2008.