The Midterms Begin With a Texas-Size Showdown

What It Covers

The Texas 2026 Senate primaries serve as the first major midterm test for both parties, with over $100 million already spent. NYT correspondent Shane Goldmacher analyzes how incumbent Republican John Cornyn faces Ken Paxton, while Democrats choose between James Tallarico and Jasmine Crockett in a race defining each party's direction.

Key Questions Answered

• •Republican primary dynamics: In Trump-era primaries, even 20-year Senate incumbents like John Cornyn face serious threats when they have publicly broken with Trump — even once. Cornyn's 2024 skepticism now forces him to spend heavily on ads emphasizing a 99% Trump voting record, yet he still cannot pull ahead of challenger Ken Paxton in polling.
• •Trump endorsement strategy: Trump withholds his endorsement from Cornyn despite heavy lobbying from Senate Republican leadership because he recognizes Ken Paxton mirrors his own scandal-resistant political brand. Observers note Trump avoids endorsing candidates who might lose, treating his endorsement as a finite political asset to be deployed only when victory is near-certain.
• •Electability vs. base mobilization: The Democratic primary presents a concrete strategic choice between two distinct paths: Tallarico's cross-partisan coalition-building targeting swing voters, versus Crockett's base-mobilization model energizing existing Democratic voters. Polling shows Crockett leads after entering in December, but Republican operatives actively funded early polls to encourage her entry, signaling their preference to face her.
• •Opposition research as campaign strategy: Crockett's opening campaign ad is narrated entirely by Donald Trump attacking her, reframing his criticism as proof of her threat to Republicans. This tactic converts an opponent's attack into a fundraising and identity asset — a replicable model for candidates in heavily partisan primaries seeking to establish fighter credentials without self-promotion.
• •Texas structural importance: Texas is projected to gain approximately four additional congressional seats after the next census, making it a compounding electoral prize. Democrats have lost two consecutive high-investment Senate races there, including Colin Allred's $100 million campaign. The 2026 race represents a strategic inflection point for whether Democrats can build a viable long-term Texas infrastructure.