Oscars 2026: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win?
Episode
35 min
Read time
2 min
Topics
Productivity, Relationships, Leadership
AI-Generated Summary
Key Takeaways
- ✓Best Actress front-runner: Jessie Buckley in *Hamnet* plays Agnes, Shakespeare's wife, and is considered a near-certain winner. Her performance spans romantic love, maternal grief, and animalistic loss after her son Hamnet dies while Shakespeare works in London. Dargis notes the Academy historically rewards emotionally expansive, physically demanding performances — what she calls the "Shirley MacLaine in Terms of Endearment" archetype.
- ✓Best Actress alternative worth watching: Norwegian actress Renate Reinsve in *Sentimental Value* delivers a quieter, more layered performance opposite Stellan Skarsgård and Elle Fanning. A key scene uses deliberate focus-pulling cinematography — Fanning blurred in the foreground, Reinsve sharp in the background — to let the audience read complex, unspoken emotion without directorial instruction on how to feel.
- ✓Best Actor three-way split: Timothée Chalamet (*Marty Supreme*), Michael B. Jordan (*Sinners*), and Ethan Hawke (*Blue Moon*) each represent distinct performance styles. Chalamet plays an abrasive post-WWII table tennis hustler; Jordan plays twin brothers with separate personalities in one film; Hawke portrays alcoholic lyricist Lorenz Hart on the night Oklahoma premiered in 1943. Dargis personally favors Hawke's restrained, age-worn portrayal.
- ✓Best Picture contender — Sinners: Ryan Coogler's film uses a juke joint vampire horror framework to explore Black cultural history from Africa through Mississippi to the present. A single continuous camera movement during a blues performance collapses time to show the full arc of African American music — blues, funk, hip-hop, and contemporary dance — making the film's historical argument visually rather than through dialogue.
- ✓Hollywood's commercial lesson from 2025: Both *Sinners* and *One Battle After Another* succeeded critically and commercially by grounding big-studio budgets in stories directly reflecting contemporary American anxieties. Dargis argues studio executives should read this as evidence that audiences actively seek well-crafted films engaging with real-world conditions, rather than blockbusters disconnected from lived experience.
What It Covers
NYT chief film critic Manohla Dargis previews the 98th Academy Awards with NYT host Michael Barbaro, analyzing front-runners across Best Actress, Best Actor, and Best Picture categories, arguing that 2025 produced an uncommonly strong slate of studio films that speak directly to the current American experience.
Key Questions Answered
- •Best Actress front-runner: Jessie Buckley in *Hamnet* plays Agnes, Shakespeare's wife, and is considered a near-certain winner. Her performance spans romantic love, maternal grief, and animalistic loss after her son Hamnet dies while Shakespeare works in London. Dargis notes the Academy historically rewards emotionally expansive, physically demanding performances — what she calls the "Shirley MacLaine in Terms of Endearment" archetype.
- •Best Actress alternative worth watching: Norwegian actress Renate Reinsve in *Sentimental Value* delivers a quieter, more layered performance opposite Stellan Skarsgård and Elle Fanning. A key scene uses deliberate focus-pulling cinematography — Fanning blurred in the foreground, Reinsve sharp in the background — to let the audience read complex, unspoken emotion without directorial instruction on how to feel.
- •Best Actor three-way split: Timothée Chalamet (*Marty Supreme*), Michael B. Jordan (*Sinners*), and Ethan Hawke (*Blue Moon*) each represent distinct performance styles. Chalamet plays an abrasive post-WWII table tennis hustler; Jordan plays twin brothers with separate personalities in one film; Hawke portrays alcoholic lyricist Lorenz Hart on the night Oklahoma premiered in 1943. Dargis personally favors Hawke's restrained, age-worn portrayal.
- •Best Picture contender — Sinners: Ryan Coogler's film uses a juke joint vampire horror framework to explore Black cultural history from Africa through Mississippi to the present. A single continuous camera movement during a blues performance collapses time to show the full arc of African American music — blues, funk, hip-hop, and contemporary dance — making the film's historical argument visually rather than through dialogue.
- •Hollywood's commercial lesson from 2025: Both *Sinners* and *One Battle After Another* succeeded critically and commercially by grounding big-studio budgets in stories directly reflecting contemporary American anxieties. Dargis argues studio executives should read this as evidence that audiences actively seek well-crafted films engaging with real-world conditions, rather than blockbusters disconnected from lived experience.
Notable Moment
Dargis describes a scene in *One Battle After Another* where Paul Thomas Anderson's opening sequence — depicting revolutionaries rescuing people seized by the U.S. military — caused an entire theater audience to fall completely silent, because the dramatization felt indistinguishable from recent real-world news events.
Episode Transcript
I've always wanted to ask you this question. Do film critics like yourself actually get excited about the Oscars? I have a love hate relationship with the Oscars. I mean, I've watched, I think, probably almost every single Oscar since I was a child. Mhmm. I often spend the entire time cursing at the screen and speed dialing friends and then cheering wildly when one of my favorite movies wins favorite movies wins something, you know? So the Oscars are terrible unless they're right, which means unless they pick my movies, you know? From the New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is The Daily on Sunday. The ninety eighth annual Academy Awards are one week from today. Of the untold hundreds of films that were released in The United States last year, some 50 or so are nominated for Oscars. And according to critics and industry insiders, those movies are uncommonly good. Despite all the forces arrayed against Hollywood, it was kind of a magical year. Great movies were made and audiences found them. Mostly. So with one week to go before the Oscars, we asked Manolo Dargas, the Times chief movie critic, to come in and talk about twenty twenty five's unmissable performances and unskippable movies. So take notes, even if they're just mental notes, and plan your watching very wisely for the next seven days. It's Sunday, March 8. Manola, welcome to the Sunday Daily. Thank you, Michael. It's nice to be here. This is our first ever conversation, you and I. What took us so long? Great question. So if you had to pick a single word to describe this year's Oscar nominees, what would that word be? One word? That's the exercise here. Surprising. You know? And why it's surprising on some level is that there are so many good movies that are up for awards. I mean, two of the movies are the top of my top 10, you know, sinners in one battle after another. You know? And I think So you and the Oscars in sync this year? What happened? I mean, yes. So despite all of the dire warnings and broadcast and, you know, articles that are out there, the movie industry is not dead, and movie making and movies are certainly not dead. It's kind of like think of the ending of Carrie when the hand pops out of the grave. That is American cinema. You know? It's it's back, baby. The industry might be completely a mess, but the movies are there, and they're wonderful. Okay. So, Manolo, we're here to talk about some of the movies our listeners should definitely plan to watch before the Oscar ceremony next Sunday. I was thinking that the way we could do that is to talk about some of the front runners for Oscars, and then some of the actors and the performances you personally loved this year. So, basically, the will win versus should win tension. So, let's start with the …
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“Norwegian actress Renate Reinsve in *Sentimental Value* delivers a quieter, more layered performance opposite Stellan Skarsgård and Elle Fanning.”
“The Academy historically rewards emotionally expansive, physically demanding performances — what she calls the 'Shirley MacLaine in Terms of Endearment' archetype.”
“Timothée Chalamet (*Marty Supreme*), Michael B. Jordan (*Sinners*), and Ethan Hawke (*Blue Moon*) each represent distinct performance styles. Chalamet plays an abrasive post-WWII table tennis hustler.”
“Both *Sinners* and *One Battle After Another* succeeded critically and commercially by grounding big-studio budgets in stories directly reflecting contemporary American anxieties.”
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