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The Daily (NYT)

Israel, AIPAC and Difficult Questions for Democrats

39 min episode · 2 min read
·
Jonathan Mahler

Episode

39 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Productivity, Investing, Fundraising & VC

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • AIPAC's litmus test shift: AIPAC now defines "pro-Israel" as supporting unconditional US military aid — no conditions, no case-by-case review. Moderate Democrats who support Israel but question blank-check funding, like New Jersey's Tom Malinowski, face millions in attack ads on unrelated issues like stock trading and immigration enforcement.
  • Super PAC strategy and dark money: AIPAC's United Democracy Project Super PAC, created before the 2022 midterms, runs ads with no visible connection to Israel — reproductive rights, immigration, wages — while funding candidates or defeating opponents. Voters cannot identify the pro-Israel source, making the spending difficult to counter without explicit public disclosure campaigns.
  • Backfire risk is measurable: In Daniel Biss's Illinois suburban Chicago race, internal polling showed 51% of district voters viewed AIPAC unfavorably versus only 17% favorably. Biss weaponized AIPAC opposition as a campaign platform, won the Democratic primary, and demonstrated that AIPAC targeting can now actively boost the candidates it opposes.
  • October 7 accelerated, not created, the shift: Democratic skepticism of unconditional Israel support predates October 7, beginning with Obama's 2015 Iran nuclear deal and the 2018 Squad elections. The Gaza war accelerated an existing trajectory — nearly 100 House Democrats voted to end military aid to Israel in one 2024 vote, a previously unthinkable number.
  • Antisemitism and legitimate criticism require separation: AIPAC's spending is comparable to the crypto and AI lobbying Super PACs in dollar terms, yet receives disproportionate scrutiny. Criticism of AIPAC contains both legitimate policy debate and documented antisemitic tropes about Jewish money and foreign influence — observers must distinguish between the two rather than conflating or dismissing either.

What It Covers

NYT journalist Jonathan Mahler traces how AIPAC transformed from a bipartisan pro-Israel lobbying group into a polarizing electoral force, spending $120 million in the 2024 cycle and $30 million in a single Michigan Senate race, reshaping Democratic Party politics around Israel support as a strict litmus test.

Key Questions Answered

  • AIPAC's litmus test shift: AIPAC now defines "pro-Israel" as supporting unconditional US military aid — no conditions, no case-by-case review. Moderate Democrats who support Israel but question blank-check funding, like New Jersey's Tom Malinowski, face millions in attack ads on unrelated issues like stock trading and immigration enforcement.
  • Super PAC strategy and dark money: AIPAC's United Democracy Project Super PAC, created before the 2022 midterms, runs ads with no visible connection to Israel — reproductive rights, immigration, wages — while funding candidates or defeating opponents. Voters cannot identify the pro-Israel source, making the spending difficult to counter without explicit public disclosure campaigns.
  • Backfire risk is measurable: In Daniel Biss's Illinois suburban Chicago race, internal polling showed 51% of district voters viewed AIPAC unfavorably versus only 17% favorably. Biss weaponized AIPAC opposition as a campaign platform, won the Democratic primary, and demonstrated that AIPAC targeting can now actively boost the candidates it opposes.
  • October 7 accelerated, not created, the shift: Democratic skepticism of unconditional Israel support predates October 7, beginning with Obama's 2015 Iran nuclear deal and the 2018 Squad elections. The Gaza war accelerated an existing trajectory — nearly 100 House Democrats voted to end military aid to Israel in one 2024 vote, a previously unthinkable number.
  • Antisemitism and legitimate criticism require separation: AIPAC's spending is comparable to the crypto and AI lobbying Super PACs in dollar terms, yet receives disproportionate scrutiny. Criticism of AIPAC contains both legitimate policy debate and documented antisemitic tropes about Jewish money and foreign influence — observers must distinguish between the two rather than conflating or dismissing either.

Notable Moment

When AIPAC approached Daniel Biss — a grandson of Holocaust survivors with family in Israel — and demanded he pledge support for unrestricted military aid as the price for staying out of his race, he refused, polled his district, and built his entire winning campaign around that confrontation.

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Episode Transcript

I'm Wesley Morris. I'm a critic for the New York Times. And I'm the host of a podcast called Cannonball. We're gonna talk about that song you can't get out of your head. That TV show you watched and can't stop thinking about. And the movie that you saw when you were a kid that made you who you are whether you like it or not. I was so embarrassed the whole time because it's a bad film Yeah. And I still love it. You can find Cannonball on YouTube and where ever you get your podcasts. From the New York Times, I'm Rachel Abrams, and this is The Daily. In this year's midterm elections, AIPAC, the pro Israel lobbying group, has spent a record amount of money, mostly in Democratic primaries, to either oust candidates or support candidates based on a changing definition of what it means to support Israel. Today, my colleague, Jonathan Mahler, explains how this has created a new litmus test for the left at a time, perhaps, when America's relationship with Israel has never faced more scrutiny. It's Wednesday, July 29. Jonathan Mahler, thank you so much for joining us. Thanks for having me. Jonathan, the relationship between The US and Israel has, for years, been a huge topic in American politics. But what's felt particularly new and notable to me, at least, is how much that relationship is being both questioned and criticized in this year's midterm elections. You have been studying this relationship and how it intersects with our politics for many years and covered it for the New York Times. And so we wanted to turn to you in this moment to understand how you are seeing and thinking about all of this. Well, I have been covering The US Israel relationship kind of in one form or another for decades, I'm almost embarrassed to say. And this looks to me like a very different moment in The US Israel relationship. I mean, for the first time, you have a lot of politicians coming out very publicly and in some cases, like, aggressively putting distance between The US and Israel. I mean, that was for decades, unheard of. That was political suicide for a politician. Mhmm. And that is no longer the case, especially on the Democratic side of the aisle. I mean, it's true we've seen some on the right question and challenge their relationship, but the Republican party is still really by and large pro Israel. And that is not so much the case anymore on the Democratic side, and that is a huge paradigm shift. And it's a shift we're seeing in the halls of Congress, but also out on the campaign trail. Just give us a couple examples of what you mean by that. Yeah. So a couple of weeks ago in the house, something like a 100 Democrats voted to end US military aid to Israel. That's, like, almost half of all house Democrats. Mhmm. The effort …

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