OpenAI's New Deal

What It Covers

OpenAI releases a 13-page industrial policy document proposing worker protections, public wealth funds, and tax modernization amid worsening U.S. public sentiment toward AI, while Anthropic hits $30B annualized revenue and both labs face scrutiny over massive training costs ahead of anticipated IPOs.

Key Questions Answered

• •Anthropic Revenue Growth: Anthropic reached $30B annualized run rate in April 2025, a 3x increase since year-end and 58% rise since February, representing a 9,700% annualized growth rate — faster than any company at comparable scale, surpassing even Nvidia's record single-quarter growth of 1,240% annualized in fiscal Q2 2024.
• •AI Lab Profitability Framing: Both OpenAI and Anthropic report small profits only when excluding training and inference costs. OpenAI projects $30B in training spend this year — triple last year — while Anthropic forecasts $28B by 2028. OpenAI expects cash flow positivity by 2030; Anthropic targets conventional profitability by 2028.
• •Enterprise vs. Consumer Revenue Risk: Anthropic's revenue derives almost entirely from enterprise customers, with 1,000 accounts now spending over $1M annually — doubling in under two months. OpenAI still carries significant free consumer users, generating inference costs without revenue, creating a structural cost disadvantage that enterprise-focused competitors like Anthropic avoid entirely.
• •Public AI Sentiment Deterioration: A Quinnipiac poll shows 55% of Americans now believe AI will do more harm than good — up 11 points year-over-year — while 70% expect AI to reduce job opportunities, a 14-point increase. Critically, AI fluency and optimism are moving in opposite directions, with younger, higher-usage groups showing the least labor market confidence.
• •Policy Without Commitment: OpenAI's industrial policy document proposes higher capital taxes, public wealth funds, and worker protections, but includes zero financial commitments from OpenAI itself. Critics note the company could voluntarily reinstate profit caps, seed a public fund directly, or redirect its lobbying resources — none of which appear anywhere in the document.