What Dan Wang Saw on His Last Trip to China

What It Covers

Dan Wang, Hoover Institution fellow and author of *Breakneck*, shares observations from a month-long return trip to China after two years away, covering smartphone culture, influencer behavior, demographic collapse, youth unemployment, fortress mentality under Xi Jinping, and China's persistent underperformance in cultural exports despite material abundance.

Key Questions Answered

• •China's demographic crisis: Shanghai's total fertility rate sits at 0.6 — matching Taipei and Seoul — while the wealthiest districts register 0.4. China's national TFR is 1.0. Within roughly 20 years, half the population will be over 65, creating a structural economic burden that Wang now views with significantly less optimism than before.
• •Property wealth destruction: Approximately 75% of Chinese household wealth is held in real estate, which has declined 25–30% across major cities. This collapse, combined with official youth unemployment approaching 20%, has produced visible homelessness on Shanghai's outskirts and college graduates working as delivery drivers due to scarce professional employment.
• •Fortress China strategy: Xi Jinping's government appears comfortable with economic pain — property collapse, youth unemployment — because strategic goals in semiconductors, batteries, and military readiness are advancing. Wang frames this as a deliberate trade-off: elite engineers and high-technology sectors receive concentrated resources while broader consumer welfare is deprioritized.
• •Cultural export gap: Despite China's economic scale, its cultural exports remain structurally stunted by censorship. Stand-up comedians must submit scripts to censors before performing; one military-slogan pun caused Shanghai's comedy clubs to shut for four months. Wang contrasts this with South Korea, whose K-pop and Squid Game now drive more US college students to study Korean than Mandarin.
• •Foreign presence shift: The composition of foreigners in Shanghai has shifted measurably — more Russians and Arab business visitors are visible on streets, while American presence has declined noticeably. China has roughly one million immigrants total, comparable to Ireland's one million despite having 230 times Ireland's population, reflecting near-zero immigration as a structural feature.