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Cognitive Revolution

AI 2025 → 2026 Live Show | Part 2

99 min episode · 2 min read
·
Alex Boris

Episode

99 min

Read time

2 min

Topics

Productivity, Fundraising & VC, Sales & Revenue

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • State AI Regulation Under Fire: New York's RAISE Act requires AI labs to publish safety plans and disclose critical incidents when models fail internal tests for extreme risks like bioweapon creation or autonomous crimes causing 100+ deaths or $1B+ damage, but faces opposition from $100M super PAC funded by Andreessen Horowitz and Greg Brockman targeting sponsors.
  • Rent Don't Sell Chip Strategy: Instead of selling H200 chips to China outright, policymakers should rent compute access through Malaysian or Singapore data centers controlled by US companies like Oracle, allowing economic benefits for Chinese civilians while maintaining ability to shut off access during military conflicts or misuse scenarios.
  • Revenue Exceeds Forecasts Despite Benchmark Gaps: AI company revenues grew far beyond official projections in 2025, driven primarily by coding tools like Claude Code and Cursor, even though benchmark improvements lagged expectations, suggesting CFO projections use conservative backward-looking models that cannot account for unprecedented AI adoption curves.
  • Cost Efficiency Drives Deployment: Arc AGI benchmark shows 390x cost improvement in one year for equivalent capabilities, meaning older chips like H100s remain economically viable as smaller models achieve previous frontier performance, creating sustained demand across entire chip generations rather than requiring constant hardware upgrades for same economic output.
  • 2026 Agent Breakthrough Expected: Forecasters predict AI agents will reliably complete day-long autonomous tasks by end of 2026 versus current two-hour limit, with computer use reaching human-level reliability, potentially triggering second ChatGPT moment as consumers directly experience AI booking travel and managing errands, intensifying political pressure around unemployment concerns.

What It Covers

Part 2 of Cognitive Revolution's AI 2025-2026 live show features New York Assembly member Alex Boris on the RAISE Act, Dean Ball on AI policy and China chip exports, and forecaster Peter Wilderford on AI progress predictions and economic impacts.

Key Questions Answered

  • State AI Regulation Under Fire: New York's RAISE Act requires AI labs to publish safety plans and disclose critical incidents when models fail internal tests for extreme risks like bioweapon creation or autonomous crimes causing 100+ deaths or $1B+ damage, but faces opposition from $100M super PAC funded by Andreessen Horowitz and Greg Brockman targeting sponsors.
  • Rent Don't Sell Chip Strategy: Instead of selling H200 chips to China outright, policymakers should rent compute access through Malaysian or Singapore data centers controlled by US companies like Oracle, allowing economic benefits for Chinese civilians while maintaining ability to shut off access during military conflicts or misuse scenarios.
  • Revenue Exceeds Forecasts Despite Benchmark Gaps: AI company revenues grew far beyond official projections in 2025, driven primarily by coding tools like Claude Code and Cursor, even though benchmark improvements lagged expectations, suggesting CFO projections use conservative backward-looking models that cannot account for unprecedented AI adoption curves.
  • Cost Efficiency Drives Deployment: Arc AGI benchmark shows 390x cost improvement in one year for equivalent capabilities, meaning older chips like H100s remain economically viable as smaller models achieve previous frontier performance, creating sustained demand across entire chip generations rather than requiring constant hardware upgrades for same economic output.
  • 2026 Agent Breakthrough Expected: Forecasters predict AI agents will reliably complete day-long autonomous tasks by end of 2026 versus current two-hour limit, with computer use reaching human-level reliability, potentially triggering second ChatGPT moment as consumers directly experience AI booking travel and managing errands, intensifying political pressure around unemployment concerns.

Notable Moment

Alex Boris reveals the super PAC attacking him for sponsoring AI safety legislation is actually helping his congressional campaign by raising name recognition and highlighting his popular position on AI regulation, forcing opponents to spend their entire $100M budget on one race while inadvertently advertising his core policy platform.

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Episode Transcript

This podcast is sponsored by Google. Hey, folks. I'm Amar, product and design lead at Google DeepMind. Have you ever wanted to build an app for yourself, your friends, or finally launch that side project you've been dreaming about? Now you can bring any idea to life. No coding background required with Gemini three in Google AI Studio. It's called vibe coding and we're making it dead simple. Just describe your app and Gemini will wire up the right models for you so you can focus on your creative vision. Head to a i.studio/build to create your first app. Bye. Next up, we have, congressman no. New York State Assembly member, Alex Boris, future You're getting just a little ahead of yourself, yeah, with congressman there. Yeah. Yeah. Future future congressman, hopefully. And he is a computer engineer by training. He was at Palantir for, four years. I'm definitely glad that we have, engineers now entering public service, which, hopefully will, at least make our leadership cohort younger and more tech savvy. He is also the author of the RAISE Act, which is now, I think, the president is trying to preempt with his executive order. So there's lots to talk about. Alex, great to have you on the show. So glad to be here. Indeed. So welcome. First question, you sponsored the RAISE Act. We did a whole cognitive revolution episode about it some months ago. It has, at the time, it honestly didn't seem like it was gonna be a super controversial whitening rod sort of thing. You know, it seemed like it was less, that than s p ten forty seven was. That has not necessarily, held over the intervening months. It's true. Where are we? I know there's been sort of, you know, a, let's say, edit to the the bill from the governor. Now we have an EO that sort of targets bills like this, and then we also have, super packs that are coming online to target people like you for bringing these bills, forward in the first place. But just for starters, like, where are we in the in the life cycle of the RAISE Act? You you've hit all of the major ingredients. So the main aspect is that we're in active negotiations with the governor right now. New York has a fairly unique process called chapter amendments where after the legislature passes a bill, the governor can negotiate with the sponsors of the bill for changes that she would like to see. And if we reach an agreement, she signs the original bill but attaches a memo that says I'm signing pursuant to this agreement that we've reached, and then we, the sponsors, will introduce all of the amendments early in the next session. About a third of the bills that they get signed in New York, it varies year to year, but roughly a third of the bills end up going through this chapter amendment process. We always knew Reyes …

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  • by Anthropic

    AI company revenues grew far beyond official projections in 2025, driven primarily by coding tools like Claude Code and Cursor
  • AI company revenues grew far beyond official projections in 2025, driven primarily by coding tools like Claude Code and Cursor
  • Arc AGI benchmark shows 390x cost improvement in one year for equivalent capabilities

company

  • policymakers should rent compute access through Malaysian or Singapore data centers controlled by US companies like Oracle

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