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20VC (20 Minute VC)

20VC: How LPs Allocate to Venture in 2026: What They Want, What They Do Not Want | Why Fund Multiple Does Not Matter Without a Timeline | Why Velocity of Cashback is the Most Important Thing with David Morehead, CIO @ Baylor

68 min episode · 3 min read
·
David Morehead

Episode

68 min

Read time

3 min

Topics

Productivity, Investing, Fundraising & VC

AI-Generated Summary

Key Takeaways

  • Velocity Over Multiples: A 15x return over 18 years underperforms three consecutive 3x growth equity funds over the same period, which compounds to 27x. Baylor enforces an office rule prohibiting return discussions without specifying the time period. LPs optimizing for endowment distributions need dollars, not IRR narratives, making fund duration a critical and often misaligned variable between GPs and institutional investors.
  • Private Allocation Framework: Baylor targets 45% private, 55% public, with a hard ceiling of 55% private to prevent forced selling during public market downturns. The private book focuses exclusively on venture, expansion capital, and buyout — all real assets are being wound down. Any private allocation that cannot credibly outperform the highest available return is being eliminated from the portfolio entirely.
  • Position Sizing by Company Exposure: Baylor sizes fund commitments by targeting $2.5–3M in each underlying portfolio company, not by fund percentage. If a manager holds 10 companies, Baylor commits $30M so a 5x exit returns $15M — a threshold that materially moves the endowment. Commitments producing $400K exits on 7x returns are considered irrelevant to portfolio outcomes regardless of the multiple achieved.
  • Mechanical Drawdown Deployment: Baylor deploys capital into declining markets in structured 10% increments rather than making lump-sum conviction bets. At each 10-percentage-point decline threshold, a pre-set tranche is allocated. This removes emotional decision-making and prevents full deployment before a bottom. The approach consistently leaves some upside unrealized but eliminates the catastrophic scenario of being fully invested before further deterioration.
  • Manager Drift as Termination Trigger: Baylor terminates managers who change strategy without prior conversation, regardless of subsequent returns. The framework treats each manager as filling a specific portfolio role — shifting from post-product-market-fit growth investing to pre-revenue seed without discussion results in immediate removal. Minor drift like moving from late-B to early-A rounds is acceptable; fundamental strategy changes without LP consultation are not.

What It Covers

David Morehead, CIO of Baylor University's $2.7B endowment, explains how institutional LPs evaluate venture managers in 2026, why fund duration undermines LP math, how velocity of capital return outweighs raw multiples, and why growth equity currently dominates Baylor's private allocation over traditional venture.

Key Questions Answered

  • Velocity Over Multiples: A 15x return over 18 years underperforms three consecutive 3x growth equity funds over the same period, which compounds to 27x. Baylor enforces an office rule prohibiting return discussions without specifying the time period. LPs optimizing for endowment distributions need dollars, not IRR narratives, making fund duration a critical and often misaligned variable between GPs and institutional investors.
  • Private Allocation Framework: Baylor targets 45% private, 55% public, with a hard ceiling of 55% private to prevent forced selling during public market downturns. The private book focuses exclusively on venture, expansion capital, and buyout — all real assets are being wound down. Any private allocation that cannot credibly outperform the highest available return is being eliminated from the portfolio entirely.
  • Position Sizing by Company Exposure: Baylor sizes fund commitments by targeting $2.5–3M in each underlying portfolio company, not by fund percentage. If a manager holds 10 companies, Baylor commits $30M so a 5x exit returns $15M — a threshold that materially moves the endowment. Commitments producing $400K exits on 7x returns are considered irrelevant to portfolio outcomes regardless of the multiple achieved.
  • Mechanical Drawdown Deployment: Baylor deploys capital into declining markets in structured 10% increments rather than making lump-sum conviction bets. At each 10-percentage-point decline threshold, a pre-set tranche is allocated. This removes emotional decision-making and prevents full deployment before a bottom. The approach consistently leaves some upside unrealized but eliminates the catastrophic scenario of being fully invested before further deterioration.
  • Manager Drift as Termination Trigger: Baylor terminates managers who change strategy without prior conversation, regardless of subsequent returns. The framework treats each manager as filling a specific portfolio role — shifting from post-product-market-fit growth investing to pre-revenue seed without discussion results in immediate removal. Minor drift like moving from late-B to early-A rounds is acceptable; fundamental strategy changes without LP consultation are not.
  • Growth Equity Preference Over Venture: Baylor's growth equity book annualizes at approximately 30%, clearing the 9% distribution bogey with fewer zeros requiring coverage. Venture remains a diversification allocation, not a return driver, with Baylor's ~2.5% anthropic exposure coming through managers rather than direct selection. The endowment views venture's 15–18 year fund structures as fundamentally misaligned with the compounding math required to fund university operations.

Notable Moment

Morehead revealed that when software stocks dropped 60% in early 2026, he called small business owners directly — including a vertically integrated potpourri manufacturer — to test whether they would actually replace enterprise software with AI tools. Their unanimous refusal became the conviction basis for aggressively adding software exposure through managers.

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Episode Transcript

The single reason that privates exist is to make money, period. End of story. I'm a little perplexed by the length of some of these funds. It's not clear to me that the GP incentives are aligned with the math that runs endowments. What we're really after is the velocity of capital, not just returns on capital. There's a rule in our office that you're not allowed to talk about returns without also talking about time. We happen to have about two and a half percent of the endowment in anthropic. I never wanna be all in. Things can always get worse. You are seeing the pushback on AI at the data center level. This is 20 VC with me, Harry Stebbings. Now I'm a venture investor for a living, and something that's frustrated me for a long time is that we don't get to hear from the greatest CIOs, chief investment officers who invest in the venture funds that we run. We don't know how they think, what they like to invest in, what worries them when they're invested in a manager and they see them doing, how they think about the market today and allocating to managers. Today, I sit down with one of the best in that business, David Moorhead. He's the CIO of Baylor University office of investments, and he's one of the most respected CIOs in the business. Baylor's endowment is around $2,600,000,000. David is quite outspoken, which makes this conversation one of the most refreshing, but also articulate and clear for managers thinking about raising, looking to raise, and for managers now wondering how they should operate with their LP base. David was incredible, and I'm really proud of this show because it shines a light on a part of the industry that I feel needs a lot more transparency. But before we dive into the show today, founders face a different set of challenges at every stage of growth. For Sid Shait, cofounder and CEO of Dematrix, JPMorgan delivered the guidance and expertise to help navigate what came next. He credits JPMorgan's high touch approach with supporting dMatrix as it grew and expanded internationally. Whether you're in the early days or expanding into new markets, JPMorgan helps startups navigate complexity with real confidence, offering personalized guidance and deep sector expertise. Find out how JPMorgan helps founders at j p morgan dot com forward /grow without limits. JPMorgan is the bank of the innovation economy. While JPMorgan supports growth, Corgi protects it. My word. What an arresting first line. Get your ass covered with Corgi insurance, and I'll tell you why. If you're running a business right now, you already know this pain all too well. Getting insurance, it's really slow, it's confusing, and my word, it's full of paperwork. Well, that's exactly why Corgi is here to change the game. Corgi is the first and only insurance carrier designed specifically for tech companies, allowing you to get covered in minutes instead of days. …

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