Simon Moe predicts that in five years, open source AI models will have closed the capability gap with frontier models, with differentiation being primarily about distribution and go-to-market strategy rather than capability.
“do you think OpenWay, open source AI models, have they closed the gap with Frontier models completely? Mhmm. Are Frontier models always one step ahead? Kind of how how do you see that shaking up? Five years. Five years is a lot. Alright. Alright. One year. One year. Yeah. Five years. Yeah. Who knows? We're either you know, we're all gonna be, like, just floating around in our wall e pods. Exactly. Progress. Right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. For for me, really, at at this point, there's kind of a point we haven't talked too much about is what really differentiate opens open way model from closed way model. Right? In the end, there's not much differentiation. It's more about the distribution strategy and go to market strategy. And the capability wise, I don't really see a big gap, not even today”
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Our resolution criterion
disputableIn 2031, observable benchmarks and evaluations show whether open source AI models have closed the capability gap with frontier proprietary models, or whether frontier models maintain a significant lead.
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