“do you think OpenWay, open source AI models, have they closed the gap with Frontier models completely? Mhmm. Are Frontier models always one step ahead? Kind of how how do you see that shaking up? Five years. Five years is a lot. Alright. Alright. One year. One year. Yeah. Five years. Yeah. Who knows? We're either you know, we're all gonna be, like, just floating around in our wall e pods. Exactly. Progress. Right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. For for me, really, at at this point, there's kind of a point we haven't talked too much about is what really differentiate opens open way model from closed way model. Right? In the end, there's not much differentiation. It's more about the distribution strategy and go to market strategy. And the capability wise, I don't really see a big gap, not even today”
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In 2031, observable benchmarks and evaluations show whether open source AI models have closed the capability gap with frontier proprietary models, or whether frontier models maintain a significant lead.
Joshua Alhiam predicts that safeguards will prevent a cyber apocalypse in the immediate near term (within months).
Turner Caldwell predicts global lithium production capacity must increase 4x over the next 10 years to meet battery demand.
Kasser predicts robot taxis will be available in 2030 but routine by 2032-2033.
Turner Caldwell predicts Mariana Minerals will build 10 mining/refining projects over the next 10 years.
Peter predicts full self-driving in personally owned vehicles will start production in 2028-2029 and become cheap/free by early 2030s.
Peter predicts GTA6 will be the last major open-world game using traditional graphics; GTA7 will use world models.
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