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OpenScience· Tier C · not scored· not scored

An Anthropic employee predicts a 10% chance of human extinction within ten years.

Reported on 20VC (20 Minute VC) · 20VC (20 Minute VC) · Sep 17, 2026

“there's a ten percent chance of, you know, human extinction in ten years”

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Our resolution criterion

disputable

Observable extinction event or survival of humanity past the ten-year mark; assessed by whether human civilization continues to exist.

Target: Sep 18, 2036Dispute this

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