Rory predicts software spend growth will revert to GDP+2-3% unless AI unlocks significant labor productivity gains, in which case it could reach GDP+5-6%
“Software has grown pretty steadily two to 3% above GDP growth for a couple of decades. And that's kind of the the low rent, the kind of the low drama version of the Andreessen software will eat the world. It's kinda growing that. But it's still, you know, three or 3% plus or minus the GDP. So the probable answer is it gets back to the discussion we always have. It probably regresses to something like that unless you really see that AI unlocks productivity and labor spend, in which case you probably could see, you know, five or 6%.”
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Our resolution criterion
disputableMeasure global software spend growth rate in 2027-2030 period; compare to GDP growth; assess whether it reverts to historical 2-3% premium or maintains higher growth
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