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OpenAI & Tech· Tier C · not scored· not scored

Evan Hubinger assigns greater than 10% probability to AI killing all humans within the next decade.

On The AI Breakdown · unverified speaker · The AI Breakdown · Sep 10, 2026

“I personally think it is greater than 10% within the next decade.”

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Our resolution criterion

disputable

Whether human extinction occurs due to AI within 10 years from the statement date (by ~2036)

Target: Sep 11, 2036Dispute this

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